The Fan Support Boom for Sanae Takaichi and Her Common Ground with Mayor Akira Ogawa
The Constitutional Democratic Party’s core supporters are in a disenchanted mood
The February 8 House of Representatives election appears to be tilting toward a major victory for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) led by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (64).
According to opinion surveys by major media outlets, The Asahi Shimbun reports that the LDP is on track to secure a single-party majority, with the possibility of winning as many as 300 seats. Other leading media organizations are likewise conveying a strong advantage for the LDP.
In contrast, the “Centrist Reform Alliance”—a merger of the Constitutional Democratic Party and Komeito—is facing a difficult campaign. Initially expected to become a wildcard force through anti-Takaichi sentiment and the organizational vote of Soka Gakkai, the alliance has instead been hit by unexpected setbacks and has failed to expand its support base. A centrist insider spoke with a sigh:
“First, there’s the party name. Younger voters dismiss it as ‘uncool’ before even looking at the policies. Then there’s the proportional representation list issue. Komeito is not fielding candidates in single-member districts and instead places its members high on the proportional list. But from the perspective of Constitutional Democratic supporters, even if they vote for ‘Centrist,’ it makes it easier for Komeito candidates to win. The core supporters of the Constitutional Democratic Party are in a disenchanted mood.”
Other parties are also struggling.
The Japan Innovation Party (Ishin no Kai), which forms a coalition with the LDP, risks losing its raison d’être if the LDP secures a single-party majority. A political insider explains:
“With issues like Ishin lawmakers allegedly evading national health insurance premiums and the Osaka double election, the party’s reputation has suffered. It may be difficult for them to gain seats outside Kansai, where they have regional strength. They may have hoped to ride the wave of Takaichi’s popularity, but there’s even a chance they could fall below their pre-election numbers.”
Sanseito, which created a stir in last year’s House of Councillors election, has also seen its momentum stall after party leader Sohei Kamiya (48) shifted to a “vs. Takaichi” strategy—an approach that appears to have backfired. Although supported by fervent sympathizers, the party is unlikely to reach the 30 seats Kamiya had aimed for.
The race has increasingly taken on the shape of “LDP or the rest.” For Japan’s first female prime minister, the election resembles something close to a “fan support” phenomenon.
Political commentator Harumi Arima told this site:
“From the moment she took office, we saw the ‘Sanae sellout’ effect—bags, pens, even her traditional sandals flew off the shelves. When she appears at street speeches, the cheers from women are incredible. In the past, when figures like Ryutaro Hashimoto, Shinzo Abe, Junichiro Koizumi, or Shinjiro Koizumi gave speeches, there were plenty of high-pitched cheers. But the excitement for Prime Minister Takaichi surpasses even that. Her ability to attract people who previously had no interest in politics is remarkable.”
Arima expressed amazement at Takaichi’s popularity.
“Sympathy Votes” Framed as “Poor Thing”
What surprises people at her street speeches is the large number of elderly women in attendance. Like devoted idol fans, they bring handmade Takaichi merchandise and call out “Sanae-chan!” in excitement.
At the same time, weekly magazines such as Shukan Bunshun have reported on Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s alleged “extraordinary ties” to the former Unification Church during the campaign. The reports appeared to overturn her previous insistence that she had “no connection” to the group and were expected to have a considerable impact.
Adding to the controversy, the prime minister abruptly canceled her scheduled appearance on NHK’s “Sunday Debate” on February 1 due to a hand injury. Because she was likely to face tough questioning over the allegations, social media was flooded with claims that she had run away. It later emerged that Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara (56) had begun searching for a substitute two days before the broadcast, citing a flare-up of the prime minister’s chronic rheumatoid arthritis. However, for her ardent supporters, these scandals seem to matter little.
“Every time Prime Minister Takaichi is attacked, it reinforces the narrative that she’s being bullied—‘poor thing’—and that only fuels her supporters’ enthusiasm. The opposition criticized her over the February snap election, but voters saw it as constant negativity, which became one reason their approval ratings failed to grow. Normally, scandals or gaffes mid-campaign can be damaging. But with the Takaichi boom this strong, the impact is likely minimal,” said political commentator Harumi Arima.
Neither the Unification Church issue nor the canceled TV appearance directly affects ordinary people’s daily lives. This resilience in the face of scandal recalls the case of Akira Ogawa (43), the mayor of Maebashi, who sought re-election after reports surfaced of a love hotel rendezvous with a city employee.
Leading the criticism was Gunma Governor Ichita Yamamoto (68), who threw his full support behind Ogawa’s opponent, Akira Maruyama, in the mayoral race. On social media, he repeatedly attacked Ogawa.
“Ethically speaking, a love hotel meeting is problematic. But it doesn’t directly impact citizens’ daily lives. Unlike the Ito mayor case, Ogawa resigned without dissolving the city council, which avoided deeper fallout. In the end, she defeated Maruyama and was re-elected. The shadow MVP was arguably Governor Yamamoto. Watching his relentless attacks, some citizens felt ‘sorry for her’ and cast sympathy votes. It’s strikingly similar to how opposition parties collectively attacked Prime Minister Takaichi over the January dissolution,” said a national political reporter.
While it would be simplistic to equate the two cases, there are similarities: both central figures are women, and both faced concentrated criticism from rival parties and the media.
With voting day fast approaching, if the LDP secures a landslide victory, Prime Minister Takaichi may move full speed ahead toward the national vision she envisions. How that will ultimately unfold, however, remains anyone’s guess.
PHOTO： Takeshi Kinugawa (Takaichi) and Sota Shima (Ogawa)