Ridiculed as “gone in three months”…the “last resort” taken by the centrist reform coalition to upset the prediction of a major victory for the Liberal Democratic Party.

What is the best way to recover from the situation?

The lower house election will be held on February 8. The Asahi Shimbun and the Yomiuri Shimbun, both of which forecast an overwhelming victory for the LDP, led by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (64), with the former saying, “The Liberal Democratic Party is eyeing a majority of more than 300 seats.

The “Forbidden Forward LDP Survey” circulating in Nagata-cho also shows surprising figures: “LDP 257,” “Restoration 34,” and “LDP + Restoration 291” for 1,000 samples per electoral district from January 28 to February 1.

New parties, on the other hand, continue to struggle: the “Chudo Reform Coalition” (“Chudo”) was hastily formed by Lower House members of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and Komeito, which had left the coalition government to counter the sudden dissolution of the party on January 23. A total of 167 members, 148 from the Rittō and 24 from Kōmeitō, sailed into the party, making it second only to the 196-member Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

The poll conducted by the Mainichi Shimbun on January 24 and 25 showed a 10-point drop from the previous month to 57%, the first midwinter election in 36 years and coinciding with the exam season. Many were opposed to dissolving the regular Diet session at the beginning of the year without passing the FY26 budget.

If the Komeito votes, which are estimated to be “10,000 to 20,000 votes” in each constituency, leave the LDP and flow directly to the centrist candidates, “up to 70 LDP members may lose the election,” and young LDP members who had neglected to build a support organization relying on the Komeito votes were worried about the situation. The lower house election was expected to be a fierce battle.

However, the situation was not what it seemed,

“The number of seats in the lower house could be reduced by half.”

When the Asahi Shimbun, reporting the LDP’s overwhelming victory on February 1, announced this, Yoshihiko Noda, 68, co-chairman of the LDP, did not hide his surprise on a radio program on February 2, saying, “I was suddenly hit with a slap in the eye. As mentioned at the beginning of this article, the LDP alone is expected to win a majority (233 seats) in the Diet, and even party leaders are predicting that the centrist parties will have a tough time, as not only the party’s philosophy but even the party name has failed to penetrate the independent voters.

The LDP’s party support rate has only slightly increased, and the party is dependent on the high popularity of Takaichi. If Mr. Takaichi takes the plunge, he will draw audiences in the hundreds at his town hall speeches. It is understandable that her personal popularity is alive and well, but Japan’s electoral system is not presidential but parliamentary cabinet system, and her name can only be written in Nara’s second district. Can she write her name if her constituency is a member of a slush fund or a member of the Unification Association?

In terms of the number of prefectural and municipal councilors, the LDP has 3,400 local councilors, while Komei has 3,800 and the RPP has 960, which together is superior to the LDP’s 3,400.

The councilors and local councilors “do not participate in the Chuodo; they stay with their respective parties but enter the campaign offices of their respective candidates to conduct their election activities. The addition of Rikken’s supporting labor union and Komeito’s Soka Gakkai would have made it possible to compete evenly with the LDP. ……

The most key factor is the Komeito vote. The party’s know-how in elections is one step ahead of the others, such as the “F (friend) vote,” in which people invite their friends to vote for them, and the “take-out” campaign, in which people invite their neighbors and acquaintances to vote in advance of the deadline.

On January 14, the day before the January 15 announcement of the new party, a meeting of block leaders from all over Japan was held in Shinanomachi, with President Minoru Harada, Senior Vice President Yoshiki Tanigawa, and other Gakkai leaders in attendance. President Harada presented a policy of “forming a new party with Rikken,” and at the end, all members unanimously agreed to join the new party.

Since the Gakkai had decided to go this far, they would have to show a certain amount of votes in order to show their support. Komeito is expected to make full use of its organizational votes and overturn the 20 most heavily contested districts.

According to the situation surveys conducted by various newspapers, 30-40% of the respondents did not name a candidate or party to vote for. Although Mr. Takaichi has stated “bold policies that will divide national opinion,” he has canceled the party leadership debate, and without giving details of his policies, he has been criticized on social networking sites, saying that he does not have a blank check. The situation could change drastically with his “weak yen hokum” comment and the problems with the Unification Church and political funds reported in “Shukan Bunshun” and other publications.

Nakamichi will be gone in three months.”

This is what Yasushi Adachi, 60, a member of the House of Councilors of the People’s Democratic Party of Japan, ridiculed in a street speech in front of JR Nakano Station on February 4. In this unusual lower house election, will Nakamichi, which continues to face an uphill battle, be able to overturn the media surveys and Adachi’s ridicule and become the center of a political realignment?