The “Last Move” in the General Election, which Turned into a “Push” Election by Prime Minister Takaichi

Gaffe: “The operation of the Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Special Committee is a hokum.”

The “Coalition for Medium Reform,” which was supposed to be the “eye of the storm” in the lower house election (to be held on February 8), is facing a tough fight.

Following the surprise dissolution of the Diet by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (64), the Kōmeitō (New Kōmeitō) Party, which had been excluded from the coalition, and the Rikken Democratic Party, the largest opposition party, have “merged” into a single party. The “Coalition for Reform of the Middle Way” was formed, with Tetsuo Saito, 73, of the New Kōmeitō Party, and Yoshihiko Noda, 68, of the Rikken Democratic Party, serving as co-chairmen.

“It was a surprise that Kōmeitō dissolved its 26-year coalition with the LDP, but it was also shocking that it teamed up with Rikken, as if ‘yesterday’s enemy is today’s friend,'” said a political insider.

A source in the political world said, “When they first formed the party, they were very excited. When the party was first formed, it was thought that it would be able to take advantage of the organizational votes of members of the Soka Gakkai, the support base of the Komeito party, in the election campaign and become a receptacle for the “anti-Takaichi” crowd. ……

However, a February 2 Asahi Shimbun report on the situation in the election made those involved in the center-right pale in comparison. The ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party of Takaichi and The Japan Innovation Party is poised to surpass the 300-seat mark, and it was reported that the number of seats for the Nakamichi region “may be reduced by half” from the 167 it held prior to the announcement. According to the aforementioned official.

The Yomiuri Shimbun also reported that the Liberal Democratic Party had won a landslide victory and that the Chūdo region was struggling. Then there was the Asahi Shimbun report with even more shocking figures. The impact of the ‘half reduction in seats’ was beyond imagination, and those involved in the middle-of-the-road were in for a big shock.

The lower house election this time was an ultra-short race, lasting only 12 days from the public announcement on the 27th of last month to the day of voting. The election campaign in the middle of winter with heavy snowfall has been criticized by many.

With the exam season in full swing, there were also reports of noise pollution from street speeches and campaign vehicles. Prime Minister Takaichi himself has been reported in some weekly magazines as having “unusual relations” with the former Unification Church, and on January 31, with the general public struggling with rising prices, he said, “This is a great opportunity for the export industry.

On January 31, he said, “This is a great opportunity for the export industry. The management of the Foreign Exchange Fund Special Account (FX Special Account) is a boon for the export industry.

He also stated that the yen’s depreciation was “acceptable” and that he would “accept” the yen’s depreciation. This could be taken as an “approval” of the weak yen.

I was not emphasizing the benefits of a weak yen,” he explained.

But he was criticized for this.

Even so, Takaichi’s own party is still overwhelmingly strong. A reporter in charge of politics at a national newspaper adds, “Asahi’s survey was conducted on January 31.

Asahi’s survey was conducted from January 31 to February 1. It is important to note that the results do not fully reflect the impact of Prime Minister Takaichi’s “I’m so happy about the weak yen” comment and the cancellation of the February 1 party leadership debate. However, even if these factors are taken into account, the mood of overwhelming victory for the Liberal Democratic Party will not change.

The strategy of pushing the “Takaichi mark” to the forefront

The struggle for the center-right was evident from the early stages of the election campaign. There were some comments from the candidates’ camps that “the response from the audience was not good” and “the name of the political party did not penetrate the audience. In some cases, candidates were rejected when they ran up to shake hands with the audience.

This time, the election has turned out to be a “push” election for Prime Minister Takaichi,” one candidate told this website.

Political commentator Harumi Arima responded to this in an interview with this website.

When Prime Minister Takaichi dissolved the Diet, he declared that it would be a general election to decide whether or not Sanae Takaichi was the right person to be prime minister, and that is exactly what has happened. The enthusiasm on the streets has probably exceeded that of the “postal dissolution” by then Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi in 2005. Prime Minister Takaichi has been making speeches on the streets, asking people to “please support me,” and perhaps by design, he has not used the word “LDP” very often. He has been running an election campaign that has pushed the “Takaichi mark” to the forefront, and the public has become enamored with it.

In the past, however, when a victory is reported this close to the midway point of an election, the votes flow to the rival camps and the turnout declines. However, Mr. Arima believes that this will not be the case in this general election.

In the past, when a landslide victory was reported, voters would think, “Well, I don’t have to vote,” or “It would be bad to let him win too much,” and the turnout was slower than expected. This is not likely to be the case this time. Prime Minister Takaichi has a high approval rating among the younger generation, who vote for him as if they were “liking” a popular post on a social networking service. They vote as if they were pressing “Like” on a popular post on a social networking service.

They vote in the same way they vote in the social networking age: “Let’s go vote because it’s exciting,” or “Let’s vote for Mr. Takaichi because he’s a hot topic. In fact, in the Kawaguchi mayoral election in Saitama Prefecture (held on February 1), which became a hot topic due to the issue of foreigners, the voter turnout almost doubled from 21% to 40% in the previous election. This time, despite the snow and the exam season, voter turnout is expected to increase, and our analysis suggests that the election campaign will be even more favorable to the LDP.

The LDP’s overwhelming advantage was predicted to be in the LDP’s favor, but the formation of a new party was not even a “1 + 1 = 2” proposition. Rather than expanding the party’s strength, it is now in a tough fight for its survival. Here it comes.

The Soka Gakkai has issued a general command to all Gakkai members. This will be the last move, and we will see how far we can go to increase the number of votes. ……

(a source).

Will there really be a major upset? The situation is likely to remain unpredictable until the day of the vote.