Prime Minister Takaichi Declares “We’re on the Edge!” Amidst Unusually Fast-Paced Election

Three experts predict the chaotic House election

The curtain has risen on a chaotic battle.

On January 27, the House of Representatives election was officially announced, with voting set for February 8. The 16-day period from dissolution to polling is the shortest in postwar history, making this an ultra-short-term battle.

“In the party leaders’ debate the day before the announcement, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (64) declared that her goal was to secure a majority for the ruling coalition. She also stated that if the coalition failed to achieve a majority, she would resign immediately. However, the coalition has already achieved a majority. So Takaichi’s true intention is undoubtedly to secure a majority solely for the Liberal Democratic Party.

She likely wants to capitalize on her high approval ratings and win in this short-term battle, but the purpose of the dissolution is far too opaque. There is strong public backlash against what is seen as a selfish dissolution, asking whether it’s really appropriate to halt national politics for Takaichi. In opinion polls released by major newspapers on the day of the announcement, over 50% of respondents across multiple surveys said they do not approve of the timing of the dissolution,” said a political reporter from a national newspaper.

Even within the LDP, there is confusion. The sudden dissolution, reportedly not even communicated to Vice President Taro Aso (85), has caused internal complaints of we can’t prepare election measures in time. Meanwhile, the opposition has seen the birth of the Centrist Reform Alliance, a magic combination of the Constitutional Democratic Party and Komeito, steadily moving toward seizing power.

Can Takaichi achieve victory? FRIDAY asked three experts to predict this chaotic House election. The key question is whether she can secure a majority in the LDP–Japan Innovation Party coalition, betting her political future on the outcome. Keisuke Yamada, a commentator for Jiji Press, believes she can achieve it.

“In this unusual short-distance battle, other parties will not have time to fully promote their policies. A sole majority for the LDP is not impossible, but realistically, it’s uncertain whether they will reach 230 seats. Regarding consumption tax cuts on food, which all parties are proposing, Takaichi finally stated, ‘We will aim to achieve zero for a limited time during FY 2026.’ While there is urgency, she has also succeeded in blurring the focus of other parties.”

On the other hand, Professor Toru Yoshida of Doshisha University’s Faculty of Policy Studies warns that the LDP may lose seats.

“About 20% of the votes the LDP received in the previous election came from Komeito supporters. Not all of them will shift to the centrist camp, but at least half likely will. It would not be surprising if the LDP fell to around 170 seats. Even if they try to win over the large pool of nonpartisan young voters, the National Democratic Party and the Sanseitō Party, with strong online influence, will not yield. Filling that 20% gap seems unlikely.”

Former Prime Minister’s Moves in the Spotlight

The journalist Tetsuo Suzuki predicts that the main challenger, the Centrist Reform Alliance, will increase its seats.

“The LDP, unable to fully compensate for losing Komeito votes, could drop to 190 seats. On the other hand, the Centrist Reform Alliance could increase its seat count by gaining Komeito votes. Regarding the consumption tax cut, only the centrist alliance has clarified the funding source, stating they will establish an investment fund and use the returns. They also plan to start as early as this fall. Takaichi also touts tax cuts, but her statements like we will accelerate consideration are just Nagatacho-style rhetoric, and their feasibility is unclear. If the public notices this difference, the centrist alliance could reach around 180 seats.”

All three experts agreed that it would be difficult for the LDP to secure a majority on its own. Yoshida and Suzuki see the centrists closing in on the LDP.

“Takaichi’s high approval ratings are not based on achievements but on expectations for the first female prime minister. Yet the dissolution occurred just as the Diet convenes and she is supposed to push forward policies. Even if the results are good, it would likely be a status quo outcome, so it would have been better not to dissolve. In February, the Takaichi administration might resign completely as declared,” Yoshida said.

Having placed a high-stakes gamble, Takaichi is on the edge of a cliff, with a potentially dark future ahead. Another concern is also looming.

“The centrists are already planning for the post-election period and are moving to peel off LDP moderate-conservative members. At the forefront is former Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba (68), whose policies align closely. Even if asked to campaign, he is reportedly careful about which candidate to support. He won’t split the LDP immediately, but depending on the results, he could bring newly allied members to work with the centrists. Moves anticipating a political realignment have already begun,” Yamada said.

Takaichi, having called an election without a clear mandate, seems poised to pay a heavy price.

From the February 13, 2026 issue of “FRIDAY”