Bold Predictions for the “General Election without a Cause!　Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is on the verge of a cliff!

Three experts predict a “chaotic Lower House election

The curtain has risen on a chaotic battle.

On January 27, the election for the House of Representatives was announced. The vote was to be cast on February 8. The election was a super-short battle, taking only 16 days from the dissolution of the House of Representatives to the polls, the shortest period in the postwar period.

At the party leaders’ debate held on the day before the announcement, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (64) declared that the ruling party would aim to win a majority. If it falls below that, he declared, ‘I will step down immediately,’ but he has already achieved a majority in the ruling party’s caucus. There is no doubt that Prime Minister Takaichi’s true intention is to win a majority with the LDP alone.

He may want to win a short term battle while he has a high approval rating, but the purpose of dissolving the Diet is too unclear. In a public opinion poll released on the day of the announcement, more than 50% of the respondents in most of the newspapers said they did not appreciate the timing of the dissolution.

The LDP is also in turmoil. The LDP is also in disarray. The sudden dissolution of the Diet, which even Vice President Taro Aso (85) was not informed of, is prompting cries from within the party that it is unable to keep up with election preparations. Looking at the opposition parties, the Democratic Party of Japan and New Komeito have combined to form a centrist reform coalition. It is steadily moving toward seizing power.

Will Mr. Takaichi be able to win?　FRIDAY asked three experts to predict the chaotic Lower House election. The main issue is whether Mr. Takaichi will be able to achieve a majority in the House of Representatives with a coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Democratic Restoration Party, which is the key to his own success or failure. Keishi Yamada, a commentator for Jiji Press, said, “He will be able to achieve it.

He believes that the other parties will not be able to fully penetrate the Liberal Democratic Party’s policies due to the unusually short distance. A single-party majority for the Liberal Democratic Party is not zero, but realistically, it will probably reach 230 seats. As for the consumption tax cut on foodstuffs that each party has proposed, Takaichi finally said, ‘We will try to realize a time-limited zero consumption tax cut during FY ’26. He is impatient, but he has also succeeded in blurring the other parties’ focus.

On the other hand, Toru Yoshida, a professor of policy studies at Doshisha University, points out the possibility of a reduction in the number of seats in the Diet.

It is said that 20% of the LDP’s votes in the last election came from Komei. I would not be surprised if the number of seats in the Diet drops to the 170-seat range. It is not surprising that the LDP’s majority will fall to the 170-seat level.

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Journalist Tetsuo Suzuki predicts that the main rival, the centrist reform coalition, will “increase its seats.

The LDP, which cannot make up for the impact of Komeito’s defection, may lose as many as 190 seats. On the other hand, the centrist reform coalition is expected to gain Komeito votes and increase the number of seats in the Diet. The only party that has clarified the source of funds for the consumption tax cut, saying, ‘We will set up an investment fund and use the investment profits to finance the tax cut. The tax cut will start as early as this fall. Takaichi also calls for a tax cut, but he is evading the Nagatacho literature by saying that he will accelerate the study of the matter, and the feasibility is unclear. If that difference permeates the public, the Nakamichi will probably increase its number of seats to 180.”

All three pundits judged that it would be tough for the LDP to win a majority by itself. Yoshida and Suzuki believe that the centrist party will be able to close the gap with the LDP.

Ms. Takaichi’s high approval rating is not due to her performance, but to expectations for the first female prime minister,” Yoshida said. And yet, the dissolution of the Diet comes at a time when the Diet has begun and is pushing forward with its policies. The result will be status quo at best, so it would have been better not to dissolve the Diet.

Mr. Takaichi, who has taken a big gamble, is on the edge of a cliff. It seems likely that a bleak future lies ahead. There are other fears, as well.

The centrist parties are already looking ahead to the post-election period and are working to cut off the conservative centrists in the LDP. At the top of the list is former Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba (68), whose policies are close to the LDP’s. Ishiba has received many requests to make speeches in support of the LDP. Ishiba says that even if he receives requests to make a speech in support of a candidate, he intends to carefully scrutinize which candidate to recommend. He will not split the Liberal Democratic Party right now, but depending on the results, he may take some of the lawmakers with whom he has built relationships in the election and work with the centrist parties. They are also beginning to move toward a political realignment,” Yamada said.

Mr. Takaichi is likely to pay a heavy price for his decision to hold an election without a cause and without the people’s support.

From the February 13, 2026 issue of FRIDAY