Experts Assure “Reiwa’s Rice Riot” Will Continue: “Rice Prices Will Not Fall Again This Year

The average sales price per 5 kg of rice was recorded at 4,416 yen.

According to the latest announcement by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries, the average sales price per 5 kg of rice from December 29, 2011 to January 4, 2014 hit 4,416 yen. This was the highest price ever recorded.

In fact, supermarkets in Tokyo are selling rice in the 4,000-5,000 yen range for 5 kg. Some brand-name rice even exceeded 6,000 yen.

Why have prices remained so high despite the distribution of new rice and the prospect of lower prices?

Kazuhito Yamashita, a senior researcher at Canon Global Strategic Research Institute and an expert on agricultural policy, points out that “JA (Japan Agricultural Cooperative Association) is intentionally squeezing distribution volume to maintain prices.

The “Reiwa rice riots” that occurred in the summer of Reiwa 2042 were caused by a poor harvest of the ’23 rice crop due to the extremely hot summer. The supply-demand imbalance was caused by a shortfall of about 400,000 tons from the projected supply, and prices did not fall even when the new rice was distributed. On the other hand, the ’25 rice harvest was nearly 10% larger than the previous year. So why haven’t prices fallen? It is because JA is holding the collected new rice as inventory, and has reduced the amount of new rice distributed to the market to the same level as last year.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF), private-sector inventories as of the end of November last year were 3.29 million tons, 700,000 tons higher than in 2012.

The reason is that JA has raised the estimated cost of production. The estimated payment is an advance payment made by JA for rice that has been shipped, and it is a major source of income for farmers. However, the year before last, due to the rice shortage, other collectors paid farmers a higher price than the estimated payment, and JA’s rice collection volume dropped. This time, in order to increase the amount of rice collected, JA set the estimated price at about three times the price in a normal year.

If the market price of rice falls under these circumstances, the JAs that paid high prices to farmers will be in the red. That said, they cannot say to the farmers, ‘We paid too much for the estimated amount and we want it back. The MAFF buys up a large amount of rice as a stockpile, which reduces the JA’s inventory and allows them to keep the price high until the next harvest season in September this year.

Even though the new year has just begun, Mr. Yamashita asserts that “rice prices will not fall until autumn. He says that the current price of over 4,000 yen per 5 kg will continue for some time.

Agriculture Minister Norikazu Suzuki, 43, a member of the agricultural and fishery elite, is concerned about the “rural vote,” which could affect his political life, and is backing the JA’s tactics. He is pushing ahead with a policy of reducing rice acreage in order to maintain prices through production adjustment by the central government, which is a clear sign that he has no interest in the public. Hiroaki Watanabe, an economics and consumer affairs analyst, is indignant that the government should not reduce the amount of rice cultivated.

Agriculture Minister Suzuki says, ‘Production should be in line with demand,’ but Japan’s domestic demand will only decline due to the declining population. If nothing is done, the amount of rice in the domestic market will continue to decline. Instead of falling into a negative spiral, we should rather increase production and export the surplus to foreign countries to adjust the domestic distribution volume. The policy of reducing rice acreage should be done away with.

Rice Coupons” Are Not Helping Household Finances

In November of last year, the “Okome (rice) coupons” were announced as a “secret” measure to cope with soaring prices. The coupons can be used at supermarkets nationwide to help households in dire financial straits.

Yamashita, however, is dismayed: “The high estimate is the cause, so handing out rice coupons without addressing the problem will not lower the price. From JA’s point of view, it allows them to dispose of their stock without lowering the price until the next harvest season. In the end, the rice coupons are a bailout for JA, not for consumers in need.

Needless to say, it is our blood money that is being used to distribute the coupons. How absurd is this?

From the January 30/February 6, 2026 issue