Shohei Ohtani” will turn 32 this year…and yet, this is the only reason why we can be assured that he will “break his career high”.
Ohtani turns 32 this year…usually his performance declines, but his evolution never stops!
Shohei Ohtani, 31, of the Dodgers, who continues to evolve beyond the norm, will be making his second WBC appearance this year and entering his ninth season in the majors. What kind of results will the two-sport athlete achieve in 2014? Former Major Leaguers Ryota Igarashi, Keiichi Yabu, and Major League Baseball critic and sportswriter Nachi Tomonari discussed the matter in a heated debate.
Tomonari Let’s move on to the season in the majors. What do you expect Ohtani’s performance to be like this season?
Igarashi Otani will be 32 years old this year. If he were a normal player, it would be difficult for him to break his career high, but I think he will continue to evolve. As a hitter, I have no doubt that he will hit 50 home runs.
Based on his past comments, I feel that he is particularly concerned about his OPS (on-base percentage + slugging percentage). It is obvious that he has the ability to aim for a 30% batting average and 100 runs, but he will go to bat thinking more about his contribution to the team. Like last year, he will probably leave a record with an OPS over 1 with a baserunner rate in the low 30-40% range and a long-ball rate over 60%.
Yabu: Before the start of the season last year, I was told extensively that my hitting performance would drop because I would be returning to pitching, but that had nothing to do with Otani (laughs). This year, he is expected to be used in a dual role from the start of the season, but there should not be an extreme drop in his hitting record.
He will probably hit 55 homers or more. Since Ohtani is at the peak of both his physical and technical abilities, I think he can hit 60 homers. He will probably clear the .280 mark he set last year, and his on-base percentage may reach 40%.
Igarashi: I don’t think Ohtani himself wants people to say that his performance has declined because of his participation in the WBC. The team will not be able to make calculations unless he continues to bat. I think he understands that he is a player who determines whether the team wins or loses, so I feel that he will not only maintain his performance as a hitter, but also exceed it.
Tomonari I expect his performance to drop slightly. This is partly due to the WBC, but also because of the Dodgers’ team situation. Mookie Betts (33), Freddie Freeman (36), and Max Muncy (35), who have supported the batting lineup along with Ohtani, have all reached the veteran level and are expected to go downhill.
Naturally, the marks on Ohtani will be tougher, and there may be an increase in the number of reverences. Considering that he will be used in a two-way role throughout the season, the number of games he plays will probably settle around 140.
Although it is a harsh prediction, the number of home runs will probably be around 42. Shohei Otani continues to defy such pessimistic predictions (laughs).
What will it take for Ohtani to win the Cy Young Award?
Yabu: As a pitcher, I think he will gradually increase his pitch count from the start of the season and step up a gear in the second half, pitching around 20 games and winning 10 games. Considering the dominant pitching he showed last year when he was in good form, he should be able to aim for a defense ratio in the low 1-point range.
I think it will be difficult for him to win the award this season considering the number of innings he has pitched, but he is at a level where he can aim for the Cy Young Award. The numbers may seem absurd, but if Ohtani makes full use of his newly acquired curveball and sinker with a large curveball and sinker, along with his traditional weapons, the hard fastball, sweeper, and splits, he will not be so easy to hit.
Tomonari I expect him to pitch about 18 games and 96 innings. I think his defensive ratio will be 2.64 and his win-loss record will settle around 5-1.
Igarashi If I pitch four games a month, that works out to about 24 games in a season, so I’m probably over 20 games. The defensive ratio is likely to be in the mid to high 2-point range. I think Ohtani has a commitment to power in his pitching and hitting, so he will be chasing strikeouts as a pitcher as well as home runs as a hitter. I am sure that he will record more strikeouts than innings pitched.
Yabu: I agree with you. I really want to see him win 10 games and hit 60 home runs this year.
Tomonari That would be another great achievement. If he hits 50 homers for the third year in a row, he will become the third player in history to achieve this feat, and if he wins the league MVP award for the fifth time, he will become the second player in history after Barry Bonds. I look forward to this year’s season as a complete revival of his two-fisted approach, and I look forward to him surpassing our imaginations again this year.
Igarashi: I think there is a strong possibility of a third consecutive World Series championship. There are some uncertainties, such as an aging batting lineup, and it will be a very difficult challenge, but I am sure that Ohtani will be able to overcome these difficulties.
Yabu: If he wins back-to-back championships in the WBC in March and uses that momentum to win three consecutive World Series titles, it would be nothing short of a miracle.’ The 26th year could also be Otani’s year!
I want to see this expression on his face once again in the world’s top competition!
From the January 23, 2026 issue of FRIDAY
PHOTO： Aflo