Former Mayor Akira Ogawa Predicted to Win Big Despite Love Hotel Scandal

On-the-ground report from the chaotic Maebashi mayoral election

“I will definitely win.”

Akira Ogawa (43), former mayor of Maebashi City in Gunma Prefecture, reportedly confided this to her supporters ahead of the rerun election.

In the Maebashi mayoral election held on January 12, five candidates vied for the mayoral seat, including former Mayor Ogawa; lawyer Akira Maruyama (40), backed by Liberal Democratic Party factions and Gunma Governor Ichita Yamamoto (67); former city councilor Setsuko Misehashi (64); and farmer Sōya Takahashi (66).

Ogawa had been hit by an unprecedented scandal involving visits to love hotels with a married city employee. One would think she was facing strong headwinds—but as noted above, her reelection was being seen as virtually certain.

“A survey conducted by the LDP at the beginning of the year showed that ‘Ogawa leads her rival Maruyama by about 10 points.’ Other surveys from different camps also predicted that ‘Ogawa will win by a wide margin,’” said a Maebashi city government source.

What is happening in Maebashi? On the first day of the campaign, our reporter went to the scene.

Shortly after 8:30 a.m., Ogawa attended the kickoff ceremony at her city election office. Before approximately 100 supporters, she teared up and expressed her determination:

“No matter how tough it gets, I will rise again.”

After the ceremony, she boarded her campaign car and headed into the streets. Every time she saw a housewife or elderly citizen waving, she got out of the car to shake hands. In rural areas, when a woman said, “You don’t have to run,” Ogawa ran over with a cheerful, “I will run!”

A man in his 30s with elementary school-aged children explained why he supports Ogawa:

“She is sincere as a politician. She fulfilled her campaign promise to make elementary school lunch fees free. Considering her achievements, I want to leave the next term to her as well.”

Around 7 p.m., after finishing her street campaigning in the city, Ogawa made her first public speech in front of a bank near the city hall. About ten people—including families, elderly women, and men who looked like YouTubers with smartphones—listened as she highlighted her accomplishments and promised to reduce childcare costs, among other campaign pledges. When applause and cheers rose, Ogawa’s tearful expression from the morning had transformed into a smile.

“She has apologized enough for the scandal. I felt I could trust her because she is seriously approaching this election and meeting her supporters sincerely,” said a woman in her 40s who was at the speech.

Persistent Dissatisfaction with Conservative Politics

Regarding why Ogawa is leading in the election, Takeshi Miyazaki, a Gunma Prefectural Assembly member representing Maebashi City, explains:

“Last time, when the progressive Ogawa won in Maebashi City, which is called a conservative stronghold, it was against a backdrop of accumulated citizen dissatisfaction with long-standing conservative politics. That dissatisfaction still runs deep today, and we are likely seeing a surface-level expression of wariness toward politics bound by entrenched interests.”

Ogawa first won the mayoral seat when political scandals were repeatedly coming to light in Maebashi: the city’s former vice mayor was arrested in a government-arranged bid-rigging case, and a 6.7 million yen slush fund allegation emerged against the Gunma Prefectural Federation of the LDP.

Another factor in Ogawa’s advantage is the miscalculations of opposing camps. A different city administration source testified:

“Under the LDP’s policy, Maruyama ran as an independent. They probably thought they could capture votes from opposition-leaning voters who had grown disillusioned with Ogawa, but the backlash against LDP politics was stronger than expected.”

When it comes to progressive female mayors, Makiko Takubo (55), the former mayor of Ito City, Shizuoka Prefecture, who lost her job over an academic credentials scandal, comes to mind. However, she was decisively defeated in last December’s rerun election. What made the difference between her and Ogawa?

“Falsifying academic credentials could be considered a violation of the Public Offices Election Act, but the love hotel meetings are ultimately a moral issue. Also, the Ito mayoral race clearly divided conservative and opposition candidates, so voters on both the right and left had alternatives besides Takubo. In Maebashi, there were no other strong candidates besides Ogawa, so votes flowed to her by process of elimination.”

Will the second act of the “Ogawa Theater” open?

From the January 23, 2026 issue of “FRIDAY”