<figure id="attachment_230382" class="wp-caption alignnone" style="width: 7144px;" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-230382"><a href="#" data-ident_hash="4da7d0b2"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/fridaydigital/image/private/t_article_image/wpmedia/2022/02/aflo_180832314.jpg" alt=""></a><figcaption id="caption-attachment-230382" class="wp-caption-text">Everything is &#8220;in Putin&#8217;s hands&#8221;&#8230;. What&#8217;s behind the danger, experts say?　Photo: Representative Photography/Reuters/Afro</figcaption></figure>
The problem of the Ukraine &#8220;threat&#8221; by the Russian military that has finally become tense. Will the Russian army really invade?
On February 14, Russia took the trouble to report on television the state of the meeting between &#8220;President Putin and Foreign Minister Lavrov. On February 14, Russia went out of its way to report on the meeting between President Putin and Foreign Minister Lavrov on television, saying that Lavrov had advised that &#8220;consultations with the United States and its allies should continue.
The following day, on the 15th, German Chancellor Scholz visited Moscow and met with President Putin, who mentioned that he was ready to continue negotiations with the West.
On the 15th of the same month, the Russian Defense Ministry announced the end of some exercises and the withdrawal of troops. On the same day, the Russian Defense Ministry announced the end of some exercises and the withdrawal of troops.
Looking at this information alone, one might get the impression that the Russian military invasion is &#8220;far away,&#8221; but this is not the case. First of all, it should be noted that Putin&#8217;s series of statements were made in a &#8220;subtle way&#8221; that did not actually constitute a &#8220;softening of stance&#8221; at all. Such statements by Putin are, of course, well intentioned and calculated in their use.
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<h2> Why Putin is &#8220;bullish&#8221;?</h2>
For example, in his meeting with Chancellor Scholz, Putin made it clear that Russia&#8217;s security demands are &#8220;an unconditional priority,&#8221; even as he expressed his willingness to continue negotiations. The Putin administration is seeking &#8220;things that the NATO/US side will never accept,&#8221; such as a commitment to non-expansion of NATO. In other words, by making this statement, President Putin is saying that he will later say, &#8220;We will negotiate, but we are not saying that we will not invade. In other words, by making this statement, Putin is laying the groundwork for later saying, &#8220;We will negotiate, but we are not saying we will not invade.
Of course, such a quibble is unacceptable in the international community, but the Russians are fine as long as they can justify the invasion to themselves. In fact, President Vladimir Putin did not hesitate to &#8220;justify&#8221; his annexation of Crimea in 2014 and his subsequent support for pro-Russian militants in eastern Ukraine. Putin&#8217;s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and his subsequent support for pro-Russian militants in eastern Ukraine were all &#8220;justifications&#8221; for his actions, such as &#8220;Neo-Nazis are oppressing the Russian population and we must save them. We don&#8217;t need to convince other countries. Self-justification is the goal.
<h2> Propaganda and disinformation</h2>
Therefore, this time, too, it is impossible to judge that &#8220;President Putin has turned to a compromising stance.
Moreover, in his meeting with Chancellor Scholz, Putin also said that &#8220;what is happening in eastern Ukraine is a &#8216;genocide&#8217; against Russian citizens. As in 2014, this is a stepping stone for the Russians to justify the invasion by saying that they saved their own people. Of course, we must be vigilant.
If there is a localized military conflict in eastern Ukraine in the future, or an attack or terrorist attack involving local residents, there is a high possibility that this will trigger an invasion by Russian forces. The Russian military, with its usual methods of plotting, is also very likely to launch a terrorist attack of its own making (false flag operation). In fact, on February 18, pro-Russian forces began shelling kindergartens and other facilities in the disputed eastern Donbas region, and the Russian side is spreading propaganda that the Ukrainian side is attacking.
<h2>Information about &#8220;withdrawal&#8221; is a complete lie.</h2>
Regarding the current situation of the Russian military in the area, the Russians have announced that they are &#8220;withdrawing&#8221; from the area, but in fact they are &#8220;strengthening&#8221; their forces. The movements of the Russian military have been confirmed by U.S. military reconnaissance satellites and social network information from the region, and there is no way to hide it. One after another, there have been reports of artillery units being deployed from gathering bases to attack bases, and of further units being deployed to the front lines.
The Black Sea Fleet is expanding its exercises to include landing ships, and the deployment of air units is continuing further. During the joint exercises in Belarus, the Russian military has increased its activities on the Ukrainian border, and it has been learned that a bridge has been built over a river near the border.
After the Russian Defense Ministry&#8217;s statement of &#8220;withdrawal,&#8221; President Biden, at a press conference on the 15th of the same day, pointed out that &#8220;the fact of withdrawal has not been confirmed&#8221; and that &#8220;rather, the number of troops has been increased to 150,000. The following day, on the 16th, Secretary of State Blinken also said that the withdrawal was false and that in fact 7,000 troops had been increased in recent days and that they were moving toward the Ukrainian border.
On the same day, NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg said, &#8220;There is no movement toward withdrawal. On the same day, NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg also condemned Russia, saying, &#8220;There is no movement toward withdrawal, but rather continued buildup. The following day, on the 17th, President Biden again expressed a strong sense of crisis, saying that there is a very high possibility of an invasion in the next few days and that Russia could launch an attack of its own making.
<h2> A number of &#8220;operations&#8221; are being prepared.</h2>
Of course, we should be wary of such inconsistent behavior by the Russian military, but I would like to point out that it is also dangerous to judge whether or not there will be an invasion by the Russian military based solely on the movements of the Russian military on the front lines.
For example, even if a part of the Russian military moves to the rear, if the whole of the Russian military, including the logistics sector, has not returned to its original base in eastern Russia or elsewhere, the Russian military can quickly get into an offensive position again depending on the situation.
President Putin must be preparing a number of maneuvers according to the situation, watching the response of the United States and other factors, and it would be easy for him to stage an &#8220;apparent withdrawal of some troops&#8221; as a deception. Therefore, we should not have excessive expectations based on the movements of only a few units.
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In fact, the Russian military is maintaining sufficient combat readiness to invade Ukraine , and the choice of what kind of operation is now definitely in the hands of President Putin.

 Fumitaro Kuroi

 Representative photo/Reuters/Afro

 The issue of Ukraine's "threats" by the Russian military has finally become tense. Will the Russian military really invade? On February 14, Russia announced that it was going to launch an invasion of Ukraine.

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