MARCH” is not safe… The “2026 problem” of universities: “100 schools to be eliminated in 10 years! Winter is coming!

Students say they love the school and are sorry to see it go,” said one student at a press conference held on November 20.

At a press conference held on November 20, Masaaki Nakano, president of Kyoto Kacho University and Kacho Junior College, expressed his regret and announced that the university would stop accepting students from the 2007 academic year. The university and junior college will close their doors to students who will enroll in April 2014.

This is not the only university or junior college that will stop accepting applications. This year, Nagoya Ryujo Women’s University, Kyoto Notre Dame Women’s University, and others have announced that they will stop accepting applications one after another.

The university enrollment rate for the 2012 academic year reached a record high of 62.3%. What is happening to universities, which are supposed to be doing well, with so many young people aiming for them? University journalist Reiji Ishiwata explains.

According to the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, the percentage of students going on to university has been increasing since 1985. According to the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, this trend is likely to continue. On the other hand, the birthrate is declining rapidly, and the rate of decline in the population of 18-year-olds will exceed the rate of university enrollment by the year 2014.

Especially after ’27, the rate of decline in the 18-year-old population will be so severe that many universities will be in a critical situation where they will not be able to maintain their capacity. The year 26 may be the turning point where management comes to a standstill, and it has been called the “2026 problem” for universities.

We are entering a “Warring States Era of Universities.

The impact of the declining birthrate on universities has long been seen as a problem. In the late 1960s, the capacity-filling rate improved once, but worsened again in the 1960s due to the COVID-19 crisis and an increase in the number of applicants to large schools as a result of the easing of capacity restrictions. In 2012, the number of universities with less than 80% capacity utilization reached a record high of 182 schools.’ In 2013, the number decreased to 141 schools, but remains high. The “2026 problem” is likely to make the situation even worse.

Mr. Ishiwata continues.

I believe that at least 50 schools, and at most 100, will be eliminated over the next 10 years, mainly small, medium, and no-name schools. The well-known schools are no exception. Even the MARCH (Meiji, Aoyama Gakuin, Rikkyo, Chuo, and Hosei) level schools, which are considered the top universities in the Tokyo metropolitan area, will be on the verge of crisis in no time if they do nothing. Only Waseda and Keio (Waseda and Keio) are safe. We are entering an era of “university wars” in which universities are competing for the scarce number of students by promoting the attractiveness of their own schools.

What measures should be taken to survive?

Large-scale schools such as MARCH and the lower levels of Nitto-Komasen (Japan, Toyo, Komazawa, and Senshu) have a strong sense of crisis and are eager to reform their faculties and educational programs. They are also active in high school-university cooperation, such as under the affiliation of private high schools. Universities can secure students from affiliated high schools, and high schools can promote their admission quotas to famous private universities. In the Kansai region, “Kankan Doritsu (Kansai, Kwansei Gakuin, Doshisha, Ritsumeikan)” and “Sankin Koryu (Kyoto Sangyo, Kinki, Konan, Ryutani)” are working to establish new faculties and high school-university cooperation.

The problem is that even among the large schools in the Kanto and Kansai regions, the private universities are medium or lower-middle-ranked. Some of these universities are financially weak, or even if they are financially strong, their management is unenthusiastic about establishing new departments, and even if they do establish new departments, they are unable to fully grasp the needs of students preparing for entrance examinations. Such universities, even if they are doing well now, are at risk of ground subsidence in 10 years’ time. One strategy might be to use a slogan like that of Yamato University in Suita City, Osaka Prefecture, with the impact of ‘Waseda Keio in the East, Yamato in the West,’ and make a strong appeal that the university will catch up with Waseda Keio in a few decades.

What about regional universities?

What about regional universities? “If they are small schools, they may have the option of securing foreign students or going public with the support of the local government. However, accepting too many foreign students may create a vicious cycle that will cause Japanese students to avoid taking entrance exams. Even if they become public, they may not be safe. This is because there will be competition among public universities. Some local governments have abandoned the idea of making private universities public due to concerns about the cost of rebuilding school buildings and securing applicants. Kashiwazaki City in Niigata Prefecture, Himeji City in Hyogo Prefecture, and Choshi City in Chiba Prefecture are examples.

Although it may seem irrelevant, the major trend of university elimination cannot be stopped. It is inevitable that schools that are unattractive from the students’ point of view will be eliminated. Universities need to return to their original perspective of being places of learning and fundamentally rethink what students are looking for and how to nurture talented individuals,” said Ishiwata.

The winter period for universities is about to hit in earnest. For the parents’ generation, it is common for their alma mater to go bankrupt in 10 years’ time.