MARCH Universities Are Not Immune The 2026 Crisis Could Wipe Out 100 Schools in a Decade
Even Established Schools Like Meiji University Are Not Immune (Surugadai Campus)“Students say they love their school and are deeply saddened that it will disappear.”
At a press conference held on November 20, Masaki Nakano, president of Kyoto Kacho University and Kacho Junior College, expressed his frustration as he announced that the school would stop accepting new students from the 2027 academic year. The university and junior college will close after enrolling their last batch of students in April 2026.
Kyoto Kacho University and its junior college are not alone in halting recruitment. Earlier this year, Nagoya Ryusho Women’s University and Kyoto Notre Dame Women’s University also announced that they would stop accepting new students.
In the 2024 academic year, the university enrollment rate reached a record high of 62.3%. With many young people aiming for higher education, what is happening to universities that should, in theory, be thriving? University journalist Reiji Ishiwata explains:
“Since 1985, the university enrollment rate has been steadily increasing. According to the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, this trend is expected to continue. At the same time, however, the declining birthrate is accelerating rapidly. By 2026, the rate of decline in the population of 18-year-olds will exceed the increase in university enrollment.
Especially from the 2027 academic year onward, the decrease in the 18-year-old population will be drastic, putting many universities in a critical situation where they cannot maintain enrollment quotas. The year 2026 could become a turning point for university management, and this is referred to as the 2026 University Problem.”
Entering the University Warring States Period
The impact of Japan’s declining birthrate on universities has long been a concern. Although enrollment fulfillment rates briefly improved in the late 2010s, they have worsened again in the 2020s due to factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the relaxation of enrollment caps, which increased applicants to large universities. In 2024, 182 universities failed to reach 80% of their enrollment capacity—a record high. This number dropped to 141 in 2025 but remains elevated. The 2026 University Problem is expected to exacerbate the situation even further.
Journalist Reiji Ishiwata continues:
“I expect that over the next ten years, at least 50 and possibly up to 100 small or lesser-known universities will be eliminated. Even well-known universities are not exempt. Without strategic action, top universities in the Tokyo metropolitan area—those in the so-called ‘MARCH’ group (Meiji, Aoyama Gakuin, Rikkyo, Chuo, Hosei)—could quickly face crises. Only Waseda and Keio are relatively secure. Universities will need to actively promote their appeal and compete for a shrinking student population, entering what I call the ‘University Warring States Period.’”
How can universities survive?
“Large universities at the MARCH level or slightly below, such as the ‘Nitto Komasen’ group (Nihon, Toyo, Komazawa, Senshu), are very aware of the crisis and actively revamping faculties and educational programs. They are also pursuing high school–university partnerships. Universities secure students from affiliated high schools, while the high schools can highlight guaranteed admission slots to reputable private universities.
In the Kansai region, ‘Kankandoritsu’ (Kansai, Kwansei Gakuin, Doshisha, Ritsumeikan) and ‘Sankinkoryu’ (Kyoto Sangyo, Kinki, Konan, Ryukoku) are expanding faculties and promoting high school–university cooperation.
The problem lies with mid-tier or lower-ranked private universities in both Kanto and Kansai. Some have weak financial structures or leadership that is not proactive in establishing new faculties. Even if they do create new programs, they may not fully understand student demand. These universities are at risk of decline over the next decade. One potential strategy is to adopt bold slogans, like Osaka’s Yamato University, which promotes itself as ‘Waseda/Keio of the West,’ aiming to catch up with top universities in a few decades.”
What about regional universities?
“For small universities, securing international students or converting to public institutions with municipal support are potential strategies. However, too many international students could deter Japanese applicants, creating a vicious cycle. Public conversion does not guarantee security either, since it introduces competition with other public universities. Some municipalities have abandoned plans for public conversion due to concerns over rebuilding costs or student recruitment—examples include Kashiwazaki in Niigata, Himeji in Hyogo, and Choshi in Chiba.
Ultimately, the broader trend of university elimination cannot be stopped. Schools that are not attractive to students will inevitably disappear. Universities must return to their fundamental role as places of learning, and rethink what students truly need and how to cultivate talent,” Ishiwata concludes.
A harsh era for universities is approaching. Even alumni and parents face the realistic possibility that their alma mater could go bankrupt within the next ten years.
PHOTO： aflo