The 400 billion yen “rice coupon” is a “waste of time” for the MAFF and the JAs.

JA and the agricultural and fisheries sectors” will be enriched by the “rice coupons”!

The “rice coupons” attracted a lot of attention when Minister of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries Norikazu Suzuki mentioned them as soon as he assumed office. Has there ever been such a hot topic of conversation?

There are two types of so-called “okome coupons”: the “National Common Okome Coupon” issued by the National Rice Marketing Cooperative Association (Zenpan) and the “Okome Gift Coupon” issued by the JA Group’s National Federation of Agricultural Cooperatives (JA-Zennou). Each ticket costs 500 yen, but since 60 yen is deducted for printing and other expenses, the amount that can be used for payment is 440 yen.

At a meeting with Agriculture Minister Suzuki on October 30, Toru Yamano, chairman of the Japan Agricultural Cooperative Association (JA-Zenchu), expressed his “support” for the minister’s idea of using rice coupons to deal with soaring rice prices, and at a regular press conference on November 6, he reaffirmed his recognition that the distribution of rice coupons would be “effective.

The coupons are said to cost 60 yen per ticket for printing and handling, and if they are distributed, they will go to JA Zen-Noh or Zenpanyaku. Since Minister Suzuki is a member of the MAFF-affiliated agricultural and fisheries group, it would not be surprising if he is seen by some as having a vested interest in the distribution of the coupons.

Professor Emeritus Michiharu Oizumi of Miyagi University, who has been pointing out the interest structure of the “political-government-industry triangle” of MAFF lawmakers, MAFF bureaucrats, and JA agricultural cooperatives, said, “The government is taking measures to prevent high prices, including rice prices.

The government is considering distributing rice coupons through subsidies to local regions as a measure against high prices, including rice prices. The government finally decided at a special cabinet meeting on November 21 to establish a special 400 billion yen quota in the “local government grants for priority support” that local governments can freely use to cope with rising food prices, and to encourage the use of rice coupons and electronic coupons, etc. The government is planning to distribute coupons worth 3,000 yen per person.

The distribution of rice coupons and electronic coupons will be limited to one time only and will cost about 3,000 yen. The amount of the coupon is 3000 yen for six rice coupons, but the actual use is only 2640 yen.I don’t think there is much hope for these coupons as a measure against high prices.

At a press conference after the Cabinet meeting on March 21, Agriculture Minister Suzuki stated the following about the distribution of rice coupons through the Priority Support Local Subsidy. I hope that those who cannot afford to buy rice as much as they would like at the current price will be able to purchase the necessary and sufficient amount without any reservations.

The average price per 5 kg of rice sold at supermarkets nationwide from November 17 to 23 was 4,312 yen. Even if they gave out 3,000 yen worth of rice coupons, the current price would not even cover the cost of a 5 kg bag of 3,000 yen blend rice mixed with stockpiled rice, let alone a bag of new rice. It is just like water to a hot stone. ……

Needless to say, the distribution of rice coupons has absolutely no effect on lowering the price of rice and is not a fundamental solution; it will only increase the administrative burden on local governments by spending 400 billion yen.

It’s too expensive!” Consumers’ screams were not heard… “Only 500 yen” even if rice prices drop!

It was in August that the former administration of Shigeru Ishiba announced a change in rice policy, saying, “We are going to increase rice production. Just over two months later, the administration of Sanae Takaichi reverted to its original policy of “production in response to demand. Agriculture Minister Suzuki also stated, “Basically, production is based on demand, and this is the principle.

In other words, does he intend to continue the conventional production adjustment, which is in effect a de facto reduction of rice acreage?

In other words, does he intend to continue the conventional rice production adjustment, which is in effect a de facto reduction of rice acreage ?

MAFF has set the production of staple rice for the ’26 crop year at 7.11 million tons, the same as the upper limit of the demand forecast.’ The projected harvest for the ’25 crop is 7.468 million tons, so that’s 360,000 tons less. It is clearly a production cut. ”

The Minister of Agriculture also said of rice prices, “From my standpoint, I cannot say whether the price is high or low. He stated that “prices should be determined by the market.

Minister Suzuki said that his stance is that he is not committed to the price. In short, he does not want to make a clear statement on price because there are many stakeholders.

I agree with the minister’s idea of leaving prices to market principles. However, if he announces that the ’26 rice production will be 7.11 million tons, he is suggesting how much the price of rice will be. If the supply is going to be lower than this year, then we can see the direction of maintaining the price. As a result, they would have interfered with the price.

Does this mean that the price of 5 kg of rice will remain in the 4,200-4,300 yen range?

This year, the “estimated amount” that JA pays in advance to farmers in each region has been raised to around 30,000 yen for 60 kilograms (2,500 yen per 5 kilograms), up from 30% to 70% of the previous year’s price. With purchase prices so high, JA and other collectors cannot easily lower their relative transaction prices when selling to wholesalers. In fact, the highest relative transaction price in October was 37,058 yen.

However, the rice market is now in a state of excess. In the spot market, where rice wholesalers buy and sell among themselves, prices have already fallen. The outlook for the next three months announced by the Organization for Stable Rice Supply and Support (November 10) also shows a downward trend in prices.’ There is a widespread view that since the 25th rice harvest is 670,000 tons more than the previous year, the supply will increase and prices will fall in the future, ” he said.

Will the price of rice fall as this view is held?

Rice prices will fall, but it is difficult to predict when. Right now, we still have ’24 rice and blended rice, and foreign rice is also coming in. Those are selling well, and we are in a mixed situation where the movement of new rice is slow.

In the future, however, some traders will be forced to sell rice they have purchased at a higher price at a reduced price, even at a loss. Will it be collectors, wholesalers, or retailers? Wholesalers and retailers are holding back on purchasing rice to prevent inventory glut. Right now, it is the rice collectors, such as JA, that are holding the most rice.

It is not clear whether collectors will be able to hold onto their inventories until the fiscal year ends in March. Since it costs money to store it, they may be forced to cut their losses before the end of the fiscal year.

On the other hand, there is a shift to cheaper foreign rice for retail and commercial use. It is certainly a situation where it is difficult to foresee when prices will fall.

Until last spring, the average price of 5 kg of rice was around 2,000 yen. It is probably best to assume that there is almost no chance that the price of rice will ever return to this level again.

The price of rice will probably go down, but by how much ? How much of a decline will it be? I can’t say for sure, because it is determined by the internal ties within the industry, but if the average price falls to the upper 3,000-yen range, that would be a good thing. In short, I think it will be a drop of about 500 yen.

Agriculture Minister Suzuki’s Choice: “Rural Votes Over the People”?

I believe that the price of rice should be in the 3,000-yen range, and there should be no such thing as the 4,000-yen range.

Suzuki criticized this statement by former Prime Minister Ishiba on an information program he appeared on one week after taking office, saying, “A prime minister should not say things like, ‘There should be no such thing as the 4,000-yen level. It seems that Agriculture Minister Suzuki, who was elected from Yamagata Prefecture and is a former bureaucrat of the Ministry of Agriculture, has no intention of lowering the price of rice in the first place.

It is only speculation, but I think that behind Minister Suzuki’s statement of ‘production in response to demand,’ i.e., production adjustment, is his intention to maintain the price of rice by squeezing the supply. I don’t think he wants to do anything that will lower the price of rice himself.

In an appearance on an evening news program at the end of November, Minister Suzuki said, “If we produce too much rice, the price will naturally plummet. This is the biggest problem for the production sites.” He was concerned about the shrinkage of the production sites due to the collapse of prices. It seems that the Minister of Agriculture’s stance is to give priority to protecting the “reproducible price” of producers rather than the “affordable price” for consumers.

Suzuki’s base of support is the farming community. Which way he is working on paddy field policy, the producers, or the rural voters in Yamagata. If the price of rice were to plummet, it would affect the next election, and that would be a serious problem.

In the “Food, Agriculture, and Rural Areas Basic Plan,” a mid- to long-term agricultural policy guideline approved by the cabinet in April, the previous Ishiba administration set a target of increasing rice exports to 350,000 tons by the year 30, about eight times the 2012 level, but Agriculture Minister Suzuki seems to be taking a cautious stance toward the export expansion policy.

Regarding the target of 8.18 million tons for rice production in “Food, Agriculture, and Rural Areas Basic Plan,” he said, “I think the biggest thing is to increase exports,” but he also said, “It is difficult to continue irresponsibly increasing rice production unless the rice market, including overseas markets, is firmly expanded. However, he also said, “It will be difficult to continue irresponsibly increasing rice production until the rice market, including overseas markets, is firmly expanded.

I can’t tell whether Minister Suzuki is positive or negative about rice exports.

We will increase rice production, lower the price, and expand exports. Increasing demand will expand the rice production base. I see the agricultural policy that the previous administration was trying to address as orthodox.

The new Minister of Agriculture and Fisheries is going against that policy, not increasing production and not lowering the price of rice. Prime Minister Takaichi does not seem to care much about agricultural policy. I hope that this will not lead to a chaotic agricultural policy.

Kazunuki Oizumi, agricultural economist and professor emeritus at Miyagi University, was born in Miyagi Prefecture in 1949. Born in Miyagi Prefecture in 1949, he received a master’s degree from the Graduate School of Agricultural Sciences at the University of Tokyo. He has served as professor and vice president of Miyagi University. His publications include “The Bottom Power of Japanese Agriculture” (Yoizensha Publishing Co., Ltd.), “The Japanese Agriculture Theory of Hope” (NHK Publishing Co., Ltd.), and “Food Value Chain Changes Japanese Agriculture” (Nihon Keizai Shimbun Publishing Co., Ltd.).