Production Cuts Return as Rice Increase Withdrawn, ¥400 Billion Coupons Favor JA

JA and the agricultural and fisheries sectors will be enriched by the rice coupons!

Rice coupons, which Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Norikazu Suzuki mentioned shortly after taking office, quickly drew widespread attention. Has there ever been a topic that has garnered so much discussion?

There are two types of so-called “rice coupons.” The National Rice Retailers Mutual Aid Cooperative (Zenbeihan) issues the “Nationwide Common Rice Coupon,” while the National Federation of Agricultural Cooperative Associations (JA Zen-Noh) under the JA Group issues the “Rice Gift Certificate.” Both are worth 500 yen each, but 60 yen is deducted for printing costs and other expenses, leaving 440 yen available for use.

On October 30, Zen-Chu Chairman Toru Yamano met with Minister Suzuki and expressed support for the minister’s proposal to address rising rice prices using rice coupons. At a regular press conference on November 6, he reiterated that distributing rice coupons would be effective.

“Sixty yen per rice coupon goes toward printing costs and fees, and if they are distributed, the money will go to JA Zen-Noh or Zenbeihan. Since Minister Suzuki is a politician from the agricultural faction of the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, it’s not surprising that some see vested interests involved,” said Professor Emeritus Ikkan Oizumi of Miyagi University, who has long pointed out the vested-interest structure of the politics-bureaucracy-industry triangle involving agricultural politicians, ministry bureaucrats, and JA cooperatives.

As a measure against rising prices including rice, the government considered distributing rice coupons through local grants. Ultimately, at an extraordinary cabinet meeting on November 21, it was decided to create a special allocation of roughly 400 billion yen within the “Priority Support Local Grants,” which local governments can use freely to address food price increases, encouraging the use of rice coupons and electronic coupons. Each person is expected to receive the equivalent of 3,000 yen.

“The distribution of rice coupons or electronic coupons will be a one-time measure and only about 3,000 yen. With rice coupons, six coupons equal 3,000 yen, but in reality only 2,640 yen can be used. As a measure against rising prices, it’s unlikely to have much effect,” said Oizumi.

After the cabinet meeting on the 21st, Minister Suzuki commented on the distribution of rice coupons through the Priority Support Local Grants: “We hope that those who cannot currently buy rice as they wish will be able to purchase the necessary amount, or even a sufficient amount, without worry.”

From November 17–23, the average price of five kilograms of rice sold at supermarkets nationwide was 4,312 yen. Prices remain high. Even if a 3,000-yen rice coupon is distributed, at current prices it wouldn’t cover a bag of blended rice containing both new and stored rice weighing five kilograms. It’s truly like pouring water on a hot stone.

“Needless to say, distributing rice coupons has no effect on lowering rice prices and is not a fundamental solution. Spending 400 billion yen only increases the administrative burden on local governments.”

“Originally, it’s strange that you buy a 500-yen coupon but can only use 440 yen,” said Professor Emeritus Oizumi. Yamamoto Kei, mayor of Katano City in Osaka Prefecture, refused to distribute the rice coupons, citing their high expense ratio.

It’s too expensive! Consumers’ screams were not heard. Only 500 yen even if rice prices drop!

In August, the previous Ishiba administration announced a policy shift toward increasing production of rice. Just over two months later, the Sanae Takaichi administration returned to the original policy of production according to demand. Minister Suzuki also stated, “Basically, production should follow demand; this is a fundamental principle,” adding, “If this is considered a review, then it is a review.”

In other words, it seems they intend to continue conventional production adjustments, which are effectively equivalent to reducing acreage.

“Production based on demand essentially means ‘strengthening production control,’ and can be seen as a return to previous rice policies.

The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries has set the production volume for staple rice in the 2026 harvest at 7.11 million tons, the same as the upper limit of projected demand. The forecasted yield for 2025 is 7.468 million tons, which is 360,000 tons more. This is clearly a reduction in production.”

Regarding rice prices, the minister stated, “I will not comment on whether prices are high or low from my position,” expressing the view that “prices should be determined by the market.”

“Minister Suzuki’s stance is that he will not commit to price levels. In other words, since there are many stakeholders, he does not want to make explicit statements about prices. I agree with leaving prices to market forces. However, by announcing that 7.11 million tons will be produced in 2026, it implicitly signals how high prices might be. If supply decreases compared to this year, it indicates a direction toward maintaining prices. As a result, it ends up being a verbal intervention.”

Does maintaining prices mean that the cost of five kilograms of rice will stay in the 4,200–4,300 yen range?

“JA cooperatives in various regions advance ‘estimated payments’ to farmers, which this year have been raised to around 30,000 yen per 60 kilograms (about 2,500 yen per five kilograms), 30–70% higher than last year. With such high procurement costs, JA and other collection agencies cannot easily lower the negotiated sales price to wholesalers. In fact, the negotiated price in October reached a record high of 37,058 yen.

However, the rice market is currently in surplus. In the spot market, where wholesalers trade among themselves, prices have already begun to fall. According to forecasts for the next three months released by the Rice Stable Supply Support Organization (November 10), prices are expected to trend downward. Since the 2025 harvest is projected to yield 670,000 tons more than the previous year, there is a widespread view that increased supply will lead to lower prices.”

Will rice prices actually fall as predicted?

“Prices will decline, but it’s impossible to predict exactly when. Currently, there is still rice from the 2024 harvest and blended rice, as well as imported rice being sold. These are moving, while new rice is slow to sell, creating a confusing situation.

However, in the future, some suppliers who bought rice at high prices will be forced to sell at a loss to lower prices. Whether these are collection agencies, wholesalers, or retailers remains to be seen. Wholesalers and retailers are currently limiting purchases to avoid excess inventory. Right now, the largest stockpiles are held by collection agencies like JA.

Whether collection agencies can hold inventory until the fiscal year-end in March is uncertain. Storing rice incurs costs, so they may have to cut losses before the fiscal year closes.

Meanwhile, there is also a shift in retail and commercial sectors toward cheaper imported rice. It’s certain that when prices will fall remains unpredictable.”

Around last spring, the average price of five kilograms of rice was about 2,000 yen. It may be safe to assume that rice prices will not return to that level.

“Rice prices will decline, but by how much is uncertain. Internal industry constraints may influence the outcome, so it’s hard to be precise. If the average price ends up in the upper 3,000 yen range, that would be satisfactory. In other words, the decline will likely be around 500 yen.”

Did Minister Suzuki prioritize rural votes over the public?

“I think rice must be in the 3,000-yen range. It must never reach the 4,000-yen range.”

Former Prime Minister Ishiba made this statement, which Minister Suzuki criticized on a news program a week after taking office: “The Prime Minister shouldn’t have said that prices must never reach 4,000 yen.” Being “elected from Yamagata” and a politician with a background as an MAFF bureaucrat, Minister Suzuki seems to have little intention of lowering rice prices.

“Purely speculation, but when Minister Suzuki announced ‘production according to demand,’ in other words production adjustments, it may reflect a desire to restrict supply and maintain rice prices. He likely does not want to lower rice prices himself.”

In a late-night news program at the end of November, Minister Suzuki warned, “If we produce too much rice, prices will naturally collapse. This would be the biggest problem for producers,” showing that his priority appears to be protecting a reproducible price for producers rather than a buyable price for consumers.

“Minister Suzuki’s support base is rural areas. If we look at which side he is focusing on in rice-field policy, it’s producers—the rural votes in Yamagata. If rice prices collapse, it would negatively affect the next election, which is a serious problem for him.”

The Ishiba administration, in its medium- to long-term agricultural policy guidelines, the “Basic Plan for Food, Agriculture, and Rural Areas” approved in April, set a target to increase rice exports to 350,000 tons by 2030, roughly eight times the 2024 actual result. Minister Suzuki, however, seems cautious about expanding exports.

Regarding the 2030 rice production target of 8.18 million tons in the “Basic Plan,” he said, “The most important factor is increasing exports, that’s the key.” Yet he also noted, “Continuing to increase production irresponsibly is difficult until the rice market, including overseas markets, expands properly.”

“It’s hard to tell whether Minister Suzuki is positive or hesitant about rice exports. Increasing production, lowering prices, and expanding exports would grow the production base. I see the previous administration’s agricultural policy as orthodox.

The new Minister of Agriculture is taking the opposite approach, avoiding increased production and not lowering rice prices. Prime Minister Takaichi seems to have little interest in agricultural policy. I hope we don’t end up with a confused agricultural policy.”

▼ Ikkan Oizumi – Agricultural economist, Professor Emeritus at Miyagi University. Born in 1949 in Miyagi Prefecture. Completed the master’s program at the Graduate School of Agriculture, University of Tokyo. Served as Professor and Vice President at Miyagi University. Author of The True Strength of Japanese Agriculture (Yosensha), Hopeful Perspectives on Japanese Agriculture (NHK Publishing), and How the Food Value Chain is Transforming Japanese Agriculture (Nikkei Publishing).