The “worst possible outcome” of the “Cold War between Japan and China” with no end in sight.

Rapidly Cooling Japan-China Relations

I regret that I did not attend the G20 meeting.

The G20 Summit, which concluded on November 23rd, was a great success. During the meeting, the smiling face of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (64) was quite visible, as was her enthusiastic hug with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni (48).

However, this may have been the flip side of her anxiety. The first sentence was written in an e-mail that Takaichi sent to LDP officials around the same time.

The “regret” refers, of course, to his “existential crisis situation” comment regarding the Taiwan contingency. People around him are advising various measures to deal with the situation, but Mr. Gaoichi is stubborn when it comes to China. Does he have a strange switch on? ……” (LDP veteran staffer)

Japan-China relations have rapidly cooled over Koichi’s defense that the Taiwan contingency could be an “existential crisis situation” in which the right of collective self-defense could be exercised at a November 7 meeting of the House of Representatives Budget Committee. The following day, on the 8th, Consul General of Japan in Osaka, Xue Jian (57), posted on his SNS: “I have no choice but to cut off your dirty head without a moment’s hesitation. In addition to the request for voluntary restraint on travel to Japan, China also announced an embargo on marine products.

Journalist Kota Takaguchi, who was in China until November 19, said.

There are countless posts on the Internet saying things like, ‘Takaichi Sanae is an idiot,’ and ‘Why is Japan trying to start a fight it can’t win? I even heard that she canceled a trip to Japan at the behest of her boss at work.

The reason why China is so strongly opposing this is because President Xi Jinping (72) is furious. He had originally expressed strong concern about Japan’s shift to the right with the birth of the Takaichi administration. Since Mr. Gaoichi has taken the stance of not retracting his statement, it is highly likely that the sanctions will be expanded in many directions.”

Inaction only deepens the rift

At the G20 meeting, attention was focused on contact with Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang (66), but no dialogue took place. International journalist Toshihiro Yamada analyzes, “The possibility has emerged that the ‘Cold War between Japan and China’ may become prolonged.

On November 24, China announced its refusal to participate in the Trilateral Summit. There will be no international conference where the top leaders of the two countries will meet until the “Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Conference” to be held in Guangdong Province, China, next November. China’s countermeasures are likely to last that long.

A public opinion is forming in China that says, “Patriots should not go to Japan. The “Spring Festival,” the time for earning money, is also expected to cool down next year. According to estimates by Nomura Research Institute, the damage to the Japanese economy over the next year is expected to amount to 1.79 trillion yen.

Mr. Takaichi’s own slip of the tongue has become an international issue. He should take immediate action, but the fragility of his administration is weighing heavily on him.

There is no one like Mr. Moriyama (Yutaka 80), who served as secretary general in the Ishiba administration, who has a pipeline to China and can act as a coordinator. The fact that the party has lost its relationship with Komeito, which has a good reputation in China, has also backfired. The mood within the party is one of wait-and-see, saying, ‘There is nothing we can do.

While we were sitting on our hands, China’s attitude hardened more and more. Foreign Minister Wang Yi (72) suggested that the countermeasures be strengthened, claiming that “the red line has been crossed. The worst-case scenario for Japan is becoming a reality.

If exports of rare earth elements, of which China holds 90% of the global market share, are banned, Japan’s semiconductor and other advanced technology industries will suffer a major blow. Some Japanese may be detained in China. In 2010, when a collision occurred between a Chinese fishing boat and a Japan Coast Guard patrol boat off the Senkaku Islands, four employees of Fujita Corporation, a general contractor, were detained simply for ‘taking a video,'” Yamada said.

In addition to trade sanctions, there is a growing risk of physical damage.

There have been whispers within the party that the House of Representatives should be dissolved and a general election held in January while support is high. Takaya Imai, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s right-hand man, has suggested this idea, and Taro Aso, 85, Vice President of Japan, is said to support it. However, the international issue is also casting a shadow over his election strategy.

Despite the popularity of Takaichi, the LDP’s party support has not risen that much: the LDP-backed incumbent won the October 26 gubernatorial election in Miyagi Prefecture, but only on thin ice; seven of the 17 candidates in the November 9 Katsushika ward assembly election were eliminated; and the LDP’s support for the presidential election in Tokyo has been limited to the two candidates who were elected in the previous election, with the LDP’s support for the incumbent. With the LDP still unable to dispel the mistrust surrounding politics and money, the economic deterioration caused by the feud with China will further weaken the party’s support rate. Even if they decide to dissolve the party, I think it will be difficult to increase the number of seats in the Diet,” Suzuki said.

After only one month in office, the Takaichi administration has already reached a critical point.

From the December 12, 2025 issue of FRIDAY