Dissolution Winds Blow, Yet PM Takaichi Is Troubled by the Katsushika Ward Misstep—and Nagatachō’s Different Temperature

Reports of “A landslide for the LDP in the Sanae Theater”

The approval rating of the Cabinet of Sanae Takaichi (64), who on October 21 became Japan’s first female prime minister in constitutional history, is currently around 65%. For the period immediately after inauguration, this surpasses the Ishiba Cabinet’s 46% and the Kishida Cabinet’s 49%, making it the seventh highest in history.

She was originally popular among conservative voters, but since assuming office she has toned down her right-leaning rhetoric. When she warmly welcomed U.S. President Donald Trump (79) during his visit to Japan in late October, she linked arms with him and even pumped her fist and bounced in front of U.S. troops stationed in Japan. President Trump reportedly became quite fond of Prime Minister Takaichi.

Even so, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) remains a minority ruling party. Although it is in a coalition with Nippon Ishin (Japan Innovation Party), friction has begun to emerge over the issue of reducing the number of parliamentary seats, and no one knows when the partnership might fall apart. This is why the idea of a snap general election capitalizing on Takaichi’s popularity has surfaced.

When we interviewed a political insider:

“There is growing talk that she may dissolve the lower house and call a general election in January next year. The late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe — whom Takaichi calls her mentor — was extraordinarily strong in elections backed by high approval ratings. If the LDP alone can secure a single-party majority, implementing policies becomes easier. Some lawmakers are urging her that now, while the opposition is struggling, is the perfect opportunity.”

Party support rates also favor the LDP. In a nationwide poll conducted by the Mainichi Shimbun in October, LDP support rose seven points from the September survey to 26%. It was the first time in nine months that support recovered to the 20% range.

Meanwhile, the Democratic Party for the People dropped five points to 5%, halving its support—likely due to leader Yuichiro Tamaki’s (56) indecisive handling of the prime ministerial nomination vote. The largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, also dropped two points to 7%. Komeito—now separate from the LDP—remained unchanged at 2%, while the Sanseito fell three points to 5%.

“If you take the Mainichi poll at face value, it suggests LDP dominance. This too strengthens the case for calling a snap general election.” (same political insider)

The November 13 issue of Weekly Bunshun, anticipating a possible early-year general election, published “Predictions for Winners and Losers in the Lower House Election.” The big headline read:

〈A landslide for the LDP in the Sanae Theater〉

Judging from media coverage, it appears the winds of dissolution are beginning to blow.

The Sanseitō shows its presence in the Miyagi gubernatorial race and the Katsushika ward election

But now, an unexpected development has emerged.

It concerns the results of the Katsushika Ward Assembly election, held on November 9.
In the ward mayoral election held the same day, the incumbent Katsunori Aoki—endorsed by the LDP and Komeito—won reelection as expected. Voter turnout was 40.35% (down from 44.02% last time).

The issue lies with the ward assembly election. The top vote-getter was Sanseitō’s Hayato Kanno, who received 7,667 votes. The LDP saw 7 out of its 17 candidates lose, winning only 10 seats—two fewer than in the previous election. A political correspondent for a national newspaper analyzed:

“Prime Minister Takaichi is popular, but distrust of the LDP remains. The party was expecting to benefit from a ‘Takaichi whirlwind,’ so this is a major miscalculation. If a general election is held now, the results could be surprisingly unfavorable. The LDP’s election committee now has to rethink its strategy.”

At the same time, the Sanseitō’s momentum has proven not to be a temporary phenomenon. At a November 11 press conference, Constitutional Democratic Party secretary-general Jun Azumi (63) commented on the Katsushika election:

“The situation is unchanged from the House of Councillors election. Even with the Takaichi administration in place, the Sanseitō was strong, and the LDP couldn’t secure the seats it expected.”

A national newspaper reporter added:

“In the October 26 Miyagi gubernatorial election, the Sanseitō fully backed former LDP Upper House member Masamune Wada (51), who came within 16,000 votes of incumbent Governor Yoshihiro Murai (65). In urban areas like Sendai, Wada actually outperformed Murai. If a general election happens, the Sanseitō could be extremely powerful in Tokyo districts. They are certain to win far more than their current three seats, increasing their influence in both houses of parliament.”

When asked about dissolving the Diet, Prime Minister Takaichi replied:

“I don’t have the luxury to think about that right now,”

avoiding a definitive answer.

So—is a snap election really brewing in Nagatachō? Our publication asked political commentator Harumi Arima.

“In Nagatachō, there’s no real sense of a coming dissolution. The media is the one making noise about it, but inside, things are cool. Right now, economic measures are the top priority—if Takaichi dissolves the Diet without addressing that, her cabinet will be criticized by the public. The Katsushika election showed that the Sanseitō’s heat hasn’t faded, but the LDP does not seem particularly afraid of them. What concerns them more is Komeito’s behavior after leaving the coalition. If Komeito ends up cooperating with the Constitutional Democratic Party, the LDP could be headed for a disastrous defeat. With so many uncertain factors, it’s difficult to call an election.”

For the first time in a while, the Takaichi Cabinet has brought some positive momentum to the LDP. Will she carefully focus on economic measures, or take the enormous gamble of dissolving the Diet?