The Future of the “Stricter System” for Foreigners under the Takaichi Administration and the “Labor Shortage of 11 Million”… What is Really Needed for “Coexistence”?

Japan’s policy on foreign nationals is under intense scrutiny. On the other hand, Japan is facing a serious labor shortage, and foreigners have become indispensable in such fields as 24-hour convenience stores, agriculture, and nursing care, where the workforce is aging and successors are hard to come by. How can we reconcile the serious labor shortage and “coexistence” with the reality that Japanese society would not be possible without foreigners?

Norimi Onoda, Minister in Charge of Promoting an Orderly Coexisting Society with Foreign Nationals, has proposed a “review of the system.

In the House of Councillors election held in July of this year, “foreigner policy” became a political issue, along with measures to deal with high prices. Major political parties took a tough stance in dealing with the issue of foreigners, with the “Japanese First” party making a particularly strong showing in the upper house.

Subsequently, the Takaichi administration, which came into power on October 21 in coalition with The Japan Innovation Party, established a new cabinet with a newly created post in charge of promoting an orderly and harmonious society with foreigners. At his inaugural press conference, Norimi Onoda, the minister in charge, said, “Crimes and nuisances committed by some foreigners and inappropriate use of the system have created a situation where the public feels uneasy and unfair,” and he expressed his intention to review the systems and policies related to foreign residents.

In response to these voices, the government is conducting various reviews. These include stricter requirements for the “business and management visa,” one of the residence statuses, and stricter tests for converting foreign nationals’ automobile driver’s licenses to domestic licenses.

Tomoya Suzuki, associate chief researcher at the Nissay Research Institute, believes that the number of foreigners in Japan “will continue to increase,” but analyzes the current situation as “a good opportunity to pause for a moment to optimize the system and other aspects of the foreigner policy, which has been on an expansionary path to date.

The Growing “Labor Shortage” and the Reality of Acceptance

Despite the concerns behind the policy review, the labor shortage is becoming increasingly serious. Kawakami Village in Nagano Prefecture is an area with a high percentage of foreign residents. The village, with a population of about 3,800, is home to fields of lettuce and other highland vegetables in the summer. The number of foreign agricultural workers accepted into the village fluctuates greatly from year to year, but sometimes it is close to 1,000.

Oizumi Town in Gunma Prefecture has a population of just over 41,000, of which about 9,000 are foreigners. About half are Brazilians, followed by Peruvians, Nepalese, Indonesians, and many others. The town boasts one of the highest shipment values of manufactured goods in the northern Kanto region, and a variety of manufacturing industries, including automobile and electronic parts, use the town as a production base.

Oizumi Town Mayor Toshiaki Murayama explains on the town’s website that the town is “actively promoting a variety of initiatives that are ahead of the rest of the country” regarding coexistence with foreign residents. In addition to spreading information via children to their parents and others to inform them of garbage disposal rules, etc., the town is also working on multilingual support.

A Society that Cannot Exist without Foreigners

The number of foreigners residing in Japan, especially foreign workers, has been increasing along with the development of residence status in recent decades. The turning point was the ’18 revision of the Immigration Control and Refugee Recognition Act, Suzuki explains. He says that the traditional short-term rotational type of acceptance was replaced by a long-term establishment type, against the backdrop of a growing shortage of labor due to the economic boom brought about by Abenomics.

According to the Immigration and Immigration Control Agency, the ratio of foreign residents to the total population has risen sharply over the past few years, exceeding 3% last year, with the total number reaching more than 3.76 million .” Around 2000, the ratio was about 1%. The breakdown of foreigners residing in Japan last year was 23.2% Chinese, 16.8% Vietnamese, 10.9% Koreans, 9.1% Filipinos, and others.

In its “Future Forecast 2040,” the Recruit Works Research Institute predicts that Japan will face a “labor supply constrained society” in which Japan will face a chronic shortage of labor supply due to its declining birthrate and aging population.

Labor supply is expected to decline at an accelerating pace while demand for labor remains almost flat, and the labor supply shortage will reach 3.41 million workers in 1930 and 11 million workers in 1940. This is comparable to the number of workers in the Kinki region today. Akihisa Ito, deputy director of the RENGO Institute for Research on Lifestyle Development (RENGO Soken), also believes that “labor supply constraints are increasing” and that there are limits to the number of women and elderly people who can work.

Social Discontent and Challenges to “Coexistence

While there is a serious shortage of labor, there are also aspects of society that tend to direct their concerns and dissatisfaction toward foreigners. As Mr. Suzuki points out, “as people’s lives are becoming harder and harder due to inflation,” there is a situation in which “dissatisfaction is more likely to be directed toward foreigners.

However, it is also a fact that Japanese society would not be possible without foreigners, even if some people feel uneasy or repulsed by them.

Mamiko Chiya, chief researcher at RENGO Research Institute, points out that “the fields where foreigners are coming are labor-intensive services, such as nursing care, which are closely related to daily life. In these fields, “the wage level is low, and Japanese people do not want to work in these fields. If we stop accepting foreigners in fields necessary to maintain society, there is a concern that the standard of living of Japanese people will decline.

So, can a “symbiotic society” with foreigners be realized?

Mr. Suzuki points out that one of the major problems with the foreigner policy is that “the balance of benefits and burdens is different.

While employers, such as companies that accept foreigners due to labor shortages, are the “beneficiaries,” the regions and local governments in which these foreigners live bear the “burden. The question is “how to reconcile this imbalance.

Another issue is the education of foreign children. While they have the right to receive compulsory education, they are not obligated to do so. Mr. Suzuki believes that “a certain number of foreign children are not attending school” because their parents plan to return home eventually.

Even if they do attend school, some foreign children may drop out due to problems with their Japanese language skills, and there is concern that this could easily lead to the fixation of disparities. There is no one to support children who drop out of schooling, and they may eventually have trouble finding employment and living expenses. They may not be able to escape poverty, which could lead to crime and other problems, and this could become a source of social unrest.

Some local governments in the region are accepting large numbers of foreign residents and accumulating know-how on how to live together with them. However, coexistence with foreigners should not be left to local communities, and the government may need to take more of a leading role, including in terms of budget and cooperation with local governments. As far as accepting foreigners is concerned, it is no longer enough to simply tighten the rules of acceptance.