Japan’s New Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi Faces a Rocky Start — Experts Predict a Short Reign

Voices of criticism have emerged within the party over his heavy-handed leadership

“Look this way, please!”

At noon on October 21, just before the decisive prime ministerial nomination vote, LDP President Sanae Takaichi (64) was surrounded by colleagues including Midori Matsushima (69), posing for photos in front of the Diet chamber. Then, upon noticing FRIDAY Digital’s photographer, she suddenly struck a playful “Gets!” pose (photo below). Perhaps it was a sign of confidence—she seemed unusually relaxed for someone facing such a fateful day. An hour and a half later, Takaichi made history, becoming Japan’s first-ever female prime minister.

Since winning the party leadership on October 4, Prime Minister Takaichi has pushed forward tirelessly to stabilize her administration—exactly as she promised. A Liberal Democratic Party staffer described her relentless pace:

“After the fallout with Komeito, she was rushing around meeting with other parties to secure support for the nomination vote. She was so busy she barely ate, losing weight rapidly, so people around her had to encourage her to eat.

Lately, though, she seems to have found a new hobby—she’s hooked on the smartphone game Tetris. She’s also started watching Hanshin Tigers games again and was thrilled by their three straight wins in the Climax Series.”

Though her attempt to bring the Democratic Party for the People into a coalition failed, Takaichi immediately turned to Nippon Ishin no Kai (Japan Innovation Party). On October 12, she and Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara (56)held a secret meeting with Ishin co-leader Fumitake Fujita (44). Just over a week later, the new LDP–Ishin coalition government was born.

It was the result of Takaichi’s relentless drive — but her forceful leadership style has sparked backlash within her own party.

A mid-ranking LDP lawmaker explained:

“To form the coalition, Takaichi accepted all 12 of Ishin’s demands, but the 10% reduction in Diet seats is unacceptable. Japan already ranks 36th out of 38 major countries in the number of national legislators—it’s one of the smallest parliaments in the world. Cutting seats by 10% won’t meaningfully reduce costs. Ishin’s proposal feels more like political performance than substance. Yet she swallowed the entire deal, word for word and without conditions. I worry she won’t be able to say no to Ishin going forward.

Takaichi has always had a tendency to lose sight of her surroundings once she’s convinced of something. After being re-elected in the 2005 Lower House election, she began trying to align with (the late Prime Minister) Shinzo Abe, repeatedly asserting things like ‘It’s arrogant to declare the Pacific War a mistake, given the international context of the time,’ and ‘Calling Japan’s war in Asia an act of aggression is unreasonable.’ She even joined Nippon Kaigi. That loyalty earned her a ministerial post in 2006, but that success seems to have fueled her overconfidence.”

Ichirō Aisawa (71), former vice foreign minister and current chair of the LDP’s Election System Research Committee, criticized the proposal on social media, saying it would further reduce representation in rural areas and calling it outrageous.

Opposition figures, including Komeito leader Tetsuo Saitō (73), have also voiced strong objections. Political journalist Koichi Kakutani was blunt in his assessment:

“Takaichi is focused only on the short term. To secure her nomination—for her own sake—she caught every ball Ishin threw at her. She still had a chance to reconcile with Komeito, but this move has pushed them even further away. She’s left a trail of resentment and has only deepened her isolation.”

The move to oust Takaichi has already begun

For local LDP organizations that have long battled Nippon Ishin no Kai in elections across Japan—especially in the Kansai region—the new coalition has come as a devastating blow. A former Lower House member based in Osaka, one of the fiercest battlegrounds, lamented:

“How are we supposed to explain this to the voters who entrusted us with their hopes, telling us to ‘fight Ishin to rebuild Osaka’? Even a single phone call from Takaichi—or at least from the party secretary general—would’ve helped us go around explaining the situation. But there’s been zero follow-up with local branches. It really shows she has no strategic foresight.”

Now, rifts are widening—not only inside the party, but also between the central government and local members. While Prime Minister Takaichi remains upbeat, envisioning a bright future, senior LDP lawmakers predict her administration could be short-lived.

“She’s already bound to push through a forced reduction of Diet seats by year’s end to satisfy Ishin’s demands,” said one veteran lawmaker. “On top of that, Ishin wants to ban corporate and organizational donations. With so many enemies around her, it’s hard to see how Takaichi can keep the party together.”

Her series of political decisions—made purely to secure the prime minister’s post—may prove to be the very reason the Takaichi administration collapses prematurely. If she spends her time merely patching over problems instead of addressing them head-on, opposition parties are likely to quickly submit a no-confidence motion and pressure her to dissolve the Diet.

A senior political editor at a national newspaper commented:

“Over the past two weeks, her lack of big-picture vision has been laid bare. Even Yuichiro Tamaki (56) of the Democratic Party for the People is waiting for the perfect chance to restore his standing. Since the LDP–Ishin coalition still lacks a majority in both chambers, it’s quite plausible that opposition parties could unite under Tamaki’s leadership to launch an ‘Oust Takaichi’ campaign. Even if she survives the current extraordinary Diet session, next year’s regular session will be anything but smooth sailing.”

Political journalist Koichi Kakutani agrees:

“Even if a no-confidence motion isn’t filed, if voices within the LDP grow louder saying, ‘At this rate, both the party and local branches will collapse,’ the lawmakers who backed Shinjiro Koizumi (44) in the leadership race, as well as former prime ministers, will begin to move. It won’t take long before the Takaichi ouster gains momentum.”

Will Japan’s first female prime minister see her historic tenure end in record time?

From the November 7, 2025 issue of “FRIDAY”