Takaichi’s Premiership Could Be Overshadowed by Aso and Fiscal Hawks

The reduction of lawmakers is targeting the proportional representation system

The political turmoil in Nagatacho that erupted after the Komeito Party’s withdrawal from the coalition ultimately resulted in the birth of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s (64) LDP–Ishin administration.

Initially seen as a key player, Yuichiro Tamaki (56), leader of the Democratic Party for the People, was caught off guard, left speechless. Meanwhile, Yoshihiko Noda (68), leader of the Constitutional Democratic Party, who had called for a unification of the three parties—Ishin, the Democrats, and his own—found himself in a losing position, falling into a and then there were none situation.

On October 21, the extraordinary session of the Diet convened, and Takaichi was elected Japan’s 104th prime minister in the leadership vote. She became the first female prime minister in Japan’s constitutional history—but already, sparks are smoldering beneath the surface, according to a political insider.

“On the surface it’s Sanae Takaichi’s government, but in reality, it’s a Taro Aso administration. It was Aso who worked behind the scenes to bring the LDP closer to Ishin. He already had a connection with former Ishin leader Ichiro Matsui, and it’s said that Koichi Hagiuda coordinated things under Aso’s direction. Takaichi’s upset victory over Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi in the LDP leadership race was also due to Aso’s management of the votes. Since he set everything up for her, Takaichi can’t go against Aso.”

As a result, even though she became prime minister with great enthusiasm, there’s a chance she won’t be able to do what she wants. The same political insider explained:

“With the rise of pro-growth Prime Minister Takaichi, the stock market hit record highs, and the so-called ‘Takaichi trade’ became active. But Aso is a classic fiscal hawk. While Takaichi is willing to issue deficit bonds to promote economic growth, Aso may step in and stop her at some point.”

The Japan Innovation Party (Ishin) presented twelve demands to the LDP. These included zero percent consumption tax on food, a ban on corporate and organizational donations, and leader Hirofumi Yoshimura’s strong call for reducing the number of Diet members. Though cutting seats in the Diet has long been considered a political sacred cow, the LDP appears inclined to accept the demand.

“The cuts will likely target proportional representation seats rather than single-seat districts. Ostensibly, this is to show ‘politicians sharing the burden of reform,’ but behind the scenes, it’s essentially a move to crush Komeito, which depends heavily on proportional representation. It’s easy to imagine that Aso—well known for his dislike of Komeito—gave the go-ahead,” said a political correspondent from a national newspaper.

While watching Aso’s mood, Takaichi must also deal with pressure from Ishin—a situation causing her immense stress. Recently, rumors have spread that she’s lost noticeable weight, and when she met with Tamaki, he reportedly told her,

“Please take care of your health and do your best.”

A dissolution of the House and a general election are expected before the LDP leadership race two years from now

The aforementioned political reporter said:

“In fact, rumors about her health problems didn’t just start recently—they were already circulating when she was still considering running in the LDP leadership race. There were times when her steps seemed unsteady, and some lawmakers even worried, asking, ‘Will she be able to run?’ She has publicly spoken about suffering from menopause-related symptoms and rheumatoid arthritis, so she’s not exactly in robust health. Hopefully, these concerns will prove unfounded.”

Some media outlets have speculated:

“Once the supplementary budget is settled, Prime Minister Takaichi may dissolve the Lower House.”

Political commentator Harumi Arima also noted:

“Since the LDP leadership election is scheduled two years from now, there’s a strong chance she’ll call a general election before that.”

In an interview with this site, Arima added:

“However, there’s a series of important diplomatic events coming up, and the supplementary budget for this fiscal year must pass first. That means a dissolution within the year is highly unlikely. In the first half of next year, the government will need to pass the budget for the next fiscal year, so the general election would probably take place in the latter half of the year. Ishin currently offers support from outside the Cabinet, but if mutual trust deepens to the point where they join the government, and policies that please the public—like consumption tax cuts or gasoline tax reductions—are implemented, that would be the perfect moment for Takaichi to call a snap election.”

The political realignment that began with Komeito’s departure continues. Ultimately, however, the administration remains centered on the Liberal Democratic Party. The question now is—what kind of politics will the new Prime Minister Takaichi show to the people?