Even if the LDP survives the leadership nomination election… LDP President Takaichi, the opposition party plots to stigmatize the “shortest administration in history with a vote of no confidence in the Cabinet

A list of more than 20 rebellious councilors

It is my responsibility. I apologize.”

On October 14, at a meeting of both houses of the LDP Diet, Sanae Takaichi, 64, explained to Diet members in the lower and upper houses how she was notified by the New Komeito Party that it was leaving the coalition government, and apologized to them. It is important to obtain the cooperation of opposition parties in the future management of the Diet, and with a view to reorganizing the coalition, Takaichi is said to have said, “We will build a stable government.

“It is important for the nation and its people to form a stable government.”

The round-table discussion lasted an hour and a half, with 19 people speaking, according to the participants. In light of the uncertainty over the election of Takaichi as prime minister, a proposal was made to separate the prime minister and president, with Shigeru Ishiba, 68, remaining in the prime minister’s post to manage the government.

Under the system, if Prime Minister Ishiba does not resign, the nomination election will not be held. Also, the prime ministerial nomination election does not have to be held on the day when the extraordinary Diet session is convened. If this is the case, then it would be a good idea for the Ishiba administration to stay in power for the time being and pass urgent bills to deal with high prices, such as a bill to abolish the provisional gasoline tax rate, while negotiating with the opposition parties and establishing a system that would ensure Mr. Takaichi’s victory in the leadership nomination election.

Former Director-General Funada, 71, of the Economic Planning Agency, spoke up, and Toshitaka Ooka, 53, a member of the House of Representatives, agreed: “Even if the extraordinary Diet session is convened, we should not rush to hold a prime ministerial nomination election, and the Ishiba administration should resign after establishing a system to ensure that Mr. Takaichi is nominated. I thought it was a good idea, albeit a strange one, but the atmosphere was negative,” said a member of the House of Councilors who participated in the meeting.

Although Mr. Takaichi has been appointed as the new president under the slogan of “unity of the party,” the party’s internal conflicts continue as the mainstream and non-mainstream factions switch places, with Vice President Taro Aso (85) and Acting Secretary General Kōichi Hagiuda (62), who were non-mainstream factions in the Ishiba administration, joining the executive committee. At the reception, however, almost no one questioned Mr. Takaichi’s responsibility, and no critical opinions were expressed.

The party is on the brink of falling from the ruling party after Komeito, which had been in coalition with the party since 1999, left the party. The fear of becoming an opposition party has made them think that it is not the time to criticize the executive branch, and this sense of crisis has, oddly enough, suppressed Mr. Takaichi’s criticisms.

The extraordinary Diet session will be convened on March 21, but no specific date has been set for the party’s leadership nomination election. Around the same time as the round-table meeting, a suspicious document circulated. The document listed 26 names of “rebellious lawmakers,” and it suggested three scenarios in which the LDP, along with the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and other parties, would nominate Tetsuo Saito, 73, the leader of the New Kōmeitō Party, and the LDP would go into the field of opposition.

The LDP would not be forced into a mass rebellion like the one described in the dubious document, because the presidential election would be held by secret ballot. This is because the presidential election is a secret ballot, but the nomination election is a secret ballot, in which voters write their names on the ballot paper and then write the name of the candidate for prime minister. If he is prepared to leave the party, he can write in a representative of another party, but this time the political situation is not likely to go that far. Although a major defection is unlikely, it is true that dissatisfaction with Mr. Takaichi’s personnel and political methods is smoldering, as evidenced by the suspicious letter that was circulated. The suspicious letter is probably an expression of dissatisfaction with Mr. Takaichi,” said a veteran LDP secretary.

Risks of Partnering with the Japan Restoration Association

On the 15th, representatives of The Japan Innovation Party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, and the People’s Democratic Party of Japan met, but were unable to reach agreement on basic policies. However, on the following day, the 16th, a meeting between the Secretaries-General of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and the New Komeito Party took place, and it became clear that Komeito was expected to join the opposition parties. It is not without possibility that Komeito, who had been laughed out of the meeting, will be nominated as the leader of the party, and the dubious information that the Rikken, Komeito, and Kōmeitō will come together is also not without possibility of realization.

Meanwhile, the LDP also held policy talks with the Restoration Association on March 16 between party leaders. After the meeting, Hirofumi Yoshimura, 50, the leader of the LDP, announced, “If the policy talks are settled, the Restoration Association will vote for Mr. Takaichi as the party leader’s nominee. If the current trend of cooperation with the Restoration Association continues, it is likely that the first female prime minister will be born. A former member of the House of Representatives from Osaka, speaking on condition of anonymity, said, “With the cooperation of the Restoration Association, Takaichi could become the first female prime minister.

With the Ishin’s cooperation, we may be able to get through the leadership nomination election, but the LDP’s Osaka Prefectural Federation will be thinking, ‘Are they cutting us out of the race to work with the Ishin? Only newcomers in Osaka’s 15 electoral wards are wearing the badge of proportional resurrection, but most of the defeated branch chiefs have their hearts in the right place.

The majority of LDP members in Osaka say they support the party because they cannot trust it to the Restoration Party. If they form a coalition, they may leave the party again. Until recently, the secretary general used to call me in such emergencies, but no one from the new executive committee has called me. I feel an uncontrollable anger.”

By moving closer to the Restoration Association, the Komeito, which has been boiled over by the incumbent in the Osaka electoral district, is likely to distance itself more from the LDP. Takaichi may be able to become prime minister with the help of the Restoration Party, but there are many landmines in his path.

If Takaichi gets stuck somewhere during the extraordinary session of the Diet, the Rikken Democratic Party of Japan (Rikken Dōdōshi) will take advantage of the opportunity to issue a no-confidence motion in the Cabinet. A no-confidence motion in the Cabinet would allow the Communist Party and the newly elected Reiwa party, which have not been on board with the nomination of a leader, to get on board. If a no-confidence motion is passed, the House of Representatives would have to be dissolved or the Cabinet would have to resign within 10 days. If the House were to be dissolved, how many LDP members would be able to return to Nagatacho in the absence of election cooperation from the New Komeito Party?

The uncertain outlook for the Takaichi administration is now being derided in Nagata-cho as “will it surpass Haneda? Will the new administration be able to surpass Haneda’s?

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, 64, who is known as the “firecracker of the political world” for his extensive experience as a cabinet minister and his frequent emergency appearances when his predecessor was ousted due to scandals, is also being discussed,” said the secretary to the cabinet secretary.

What was it about the presidential election that led to Mr. Takaichi’s election?