Shock Coalition! Suga and Matsui’s Unexpected Move and the Future of the Defector List

Ultimately, it was for the sake of the LDP

Will Sanae Takaichi (64) become prime minister as it stands?

The political situation triggered by the end of the coalition with Komeito is reaching its climax.

The largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, led by Yoshihiko Noda (68), described this as a once-in-a-decade opportunity for a change of government and moved to form a grand alliance with the Japan Innovation Party and the Democratic Party for the People.

Learning from last year’s leadership vote, when Shigeru Ishiba (68) defeated them, the opposition this time designated Yuichiro Tamaki (56), leader of the Democratic Party for the People, as their unified candidate.

On October 15, Noda held a meeting with Tamaki and Fumitake Fujita (44), co-leader of the Innovation Party. While there was some concession, gaps remained with the Democratic Party over issues such as national security and constitutional interpretation, and Fujita rejected the proposal, saying there was no greater cause.

Subsequently, the Innovation Party agreed to policy negotiations with the LDP and suggested that in the leadership vote they would write “Sanae Takaichi.” In that scenario, the LDP’s 196 seats plus Innovation’s 35 would total 231 seats. With support from independents and smaller parties such as the Sanseitō, they could reach the majority threshold of 233 seats.

Regarding Innovation’s sudden move, a political insider revealed:

“There are reports in Nagatachō that some discussion took place on the night of October 14 between former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga (76) of the LDP and former Osaka Mayor Ichirō Matsui (61) of Innovation. When Takaichi was negotiating with Komeito before their departure, she asked Suga to prevent the coalition breakup, but he replied, ‘This time, it’s impossible.’ Although Suga had supported Shinjirō Koizumi (44) in the leadership election, he seems to have been impressed that Takaichi personally sought his support. While he may have his own thoughts, ultimately, he acted for the sake of the LDP. That’s the kind of person Suga is.”

Regarding Innovation joining the coalition, political commentator Harumi Arima told this site:

“By the morning of the 15th, rumors in Nagatachō were already circulating that Innovation would team up with the LDP. When the more influential representative, Hirofumi Yoshimura (50), arrived in Tokyo that afternoon, it had already been decided to align with the LDP. So, by the time the opposition party leaders’ meeting took place on the 15th, Innovation’s stance had already been settled.”

Noda’s long-cherished goal of regime change is now hanging by a thread. Still, in Nagatachō, where the future is always uncertain, anything can happen. An opposition source outlined two conditions, saying:

“The possibility is low, but a major reversal is not entirely impossible.”

By September, three members had already left the Innovation Party

One approach is for the Constitutional Democratic Party and the Democratic Party for the People to unite, and then bring in Komeito, which had ended its coalition with the LDP. This would give the three parties a combined total of 148 (CDP) + 27 (DPFP) + 24 (Komeito) = 199 seats.

“Komeito has clashed intensely with Innovation in Osaka. With Innovation effectively exiting the negotiation table, it became easier for Komeito to participate. For both the CDP and DPFP, Komeito, with its organizational votes from Soka Gakkai, is an attractive partner. Depending on how Komeito moves, the opposition coalition could be revived,” said an opposition source.

Still, in terms of numbers, 199 seats fall short of the LDP + Innovation total of 231 seats. This raises the question of whether any LDP rebels might emerge.

In Nagatachō, anticipating this development, a “Rebel Legislators List” naming 26 individuals circulated. Legislators such as Hidehiro Mitani, former Agriculture Minister Taku Eto, and Makoto Oniki, who were listed, responded:

“I will not rebel.”
“Just rumors and gossip.”
“Completely baseless information.”

Each scrambled to put out the fire.

However, the real outcome won’t be known until the events unfold. Many legislators remain concerned about winning their districts without Komeito’s support. If the contest between Takaichi and Tamaki is close, some may lean toward the side where Komeito is involved.

Political commentator Harumi Arima analyzed:

“By September, three House of Representatives members had already left Innovation. Some LDP members whose districts overlap with Innovation might consider leaving due to future district adjustments. However, leaving the LDP offers little advantage, so most of those named on the list are unlikely to depart.”

The risk of rebellion is high: anyone who does so would be immediately expelled from the LDP, face an opposing candidate in their district, and experience backlash from local supporters. Some opposition members are spreading stories assuming rebels will emerge, but that is likely just political maneuvering.

“Currently, the LDP cannot operate without Innovation. Since Innovation sided with Shinjirō Koizumi, who lost the recent leadership election, the growth of the Takaichi faction within the party will be somewhat restrained. As a result, the party environment will be moderate, and anti-Takaichi LDP members are unlikely to rebel,” said a national newspaper political reporter.

The leadership vote is scheduled for October 21. What drama will unfold this time remains to be seen—.