Could Ishin Tip the Scales? Their Role in the Potential Takaichi Premiership

Fierce behind-the-scenes negotiations continued up until the day of the prime ministerial nomination

The 26-year-long coalition between the LDP and Komeito has collapsed, and the political world is entering a period of rapid upheaval.

As reported in various outlets, the reason for the split was the disregard shown toward Komeito.

“Even before the leadership election, Taro Aso (85) met with Katsuya Hariba (58) of the Democratic Party for the People, sidelining Komeito, and appointed Koichi Hagiuda (62), a slush fund lawmaker, as deputy secretary-general, an important party post, continuously rubbing Komeito the wrong way. At the October 10 meeting that ended in a rupture, the new leader Sanae Takaichi (64) posed smiling for photos, in stark contrast to Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito (73), whose expression remained stiff. By that point, the decision was likely already made,” said a source in Nagatacho.

With Komeito dissolving the coalition, the outcome of the prime ministerial nomination has become uncertain. The prime minister is elected in both houses of the Diet, and if the nominees differ, the House of Representatives’ result takes precedence.

The candidate who secures a majority in the first vote is nominated as prime minister. The House of Representatives’ majority is 233 seats. If no candidate reaches a majority in the first vote, a runoff is held between the top two. With Komeito gone, the LDP holds 196 seats, meaning that if the opposition unites, a change in government is possible.

The Constitutional Democratic Party is particularly aggressive. According to party leader Yoshihiko Noda (68):

“A change of government is a once-in-decades opportunity.”

In last year’s prime ministerial vote, Noda campaigned for an opposition unity under “Prime Minister Noda” but lost to Shigeru Ishiba (68). This time, the party has shifted its stance:

“We will not insist on Leader Noda for the prime ministerial nomination,” said Secretary-General Jun Azumi, and they have begun moves to support Yuichiro Tamaki (56) of the Democratic Party for the People.

“At present, Tamaki is reluctant to accept the CDP’s offer due to policy disagreements. His position is entirely reasonable. Meanwhile, Noda is attempting to persuade him that while he won’t flip his policies 180 degrees for a minor issue before a major one, he can move somewhat toward the Democrats’ stance in order to prioritize a change in government,” said a reporter from a national newspaper’s social affairs department.

If all goes smoothly, the prime ministerial vote was initially scheduled for October 15. It was postponed to the 17th, and then to the 20th. According to a Nagatacho source:

“The future is uncertain. Even if the trilateral talks between the CDP, the Democrats, and the Japan Innovation Party broke down once, it cannot be taken at face value. The reverse pattern is also true. Intense preliminary negotiations will continue up until the day of the prime ministerial vote.”

Currently, Yuichiro Tamaki appears to hold the casting vote in politics, but in reality, the influence of the Japan Innovation Party is also significant.

The LDP’s 196 seats plus the Japan Innovation Party’s 35 seats total 231 seats

With the dissolution of the LDP-Komeito coalition, the Japan Innovation Party, which has clashed with Komeito in every election, now has room to step in as a new coalition partner for the LDP. In fact, the LDP has reached out to the Innovation Party for cooperation, and at the same time hinted that in the next election, it might field spoiler candidates in districts Komeito contests.

“The LDP’s 196 seats plus the Innovation Party’s 35 seats total 231 seats. If other forces supporting Takaichi join in, it is possible to secure a majority from the first vote. Ultimately, the three votes held by the Sanseitō Party could also decide the outcome,” said a television network source.

Although Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi (44), who had close ties with the Innovation Party, lost in the leadership election, the channel of communication has not disappeared. Former Fuji TV announcer Yutaka Hasegawa, who previously ran under the Innovation Party, pointed out on X (formerly Twitter):

“The Innovation Party now holds a strong casting vote. The LDP will probably accept the two conditions: the Sub-Capital Plan and cuts to social security spending.”

Meanwhile, former Innovation Party leader Ichiro Matsui cautioned on X:

“Just because Komeito left doesn’t mean the Innovation Party is automatically on board. Fielding spoiler candidates just because Komeito irritates you—Takaichi, someone trying to become prime minister, showing emotions so openly is dangerous.”

“Currently, there is no doubt that the Innovation Party holds the casting vote,” says political commentator Harumi Arima. In an interview with this site, he analyzed:

“Even if Komeito, which holds 24 seats in the House of Representatives, leaves, if the Innovation Party with 35 seats joins the coalition, the LDP can secure 231 votes in the prime ministerial vote. While it’s not an outright majority, it greatly increases the likelihood of Takaichi being elected. Moreover, for the Innovation Party, which has a hostile relationship with Komeito, Komeito’s departure makes collaboration easier. That said, the Innovation Party’s popularity is mainly limited to Osaka, and its support has declined in the recent Upper House election. Ideally, the LDP would prefer a coalition with the more popular Democratic Party for the People in the long term, but for the immediate purpose of the prime ministerial vote, the Innovation Party’s role is significant.”

On October 12, Constitutional Democratic Party leader Yoshihiko Noda told the Kanagawa Shimbun in an exclusive interview:

“We are not exclusively focused on Tamaki. Fumitake Fujita, co-leader of the Innovation Party, is also an option.”

If an agreement can be reached with the Democratic Party for the People, the Innovation Party would also take a seat at the negotiating table, and the opposition continues to court them.

Whether it is Sanae Takaichi or Yuichiro Tamaki—whichever way it goes, governing will not be easy, and a dissolution election within the year is increasingly plausible.

Meanwhile, while the political world engages in power struggles, it is the public who suffer from high prices and other economic pressures, and distrust of politics continues to grow.