After pushing ahead to the right, Komeito has also left the party… President Sanae Takaichi says, “A short-lived administration is possible.
Nagatacho Deep Report Part 2
On October 4, the vote for the LDP presidential election was held. Sanae Takaichi (64) won the runoff election against Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi (44) to become the 29th LDP president and the first female president in the party’s 70-year history. She won a fierce presidential race against Shinjiro, but there is a possibility that Takaichi’s wild life will also take its toll on her.
I don’t reflect on the war.
While Shinjiro Koizumi is on the wane, Takaichi is in high spirits, saying that he will “work and work and work. I will have you work like a cart horse. He has often been the target of criticism for his unique sensibility.
During the election campaign, he said, “There are foreign tourists who kick up deer in Nara,” and was at a loss for an answer when asked about the basis for his comment. A graduate of Kobe University’s Faculty of Business Administration and a former newscaster, he is a well-spoken man.
On the other hand, he has led an unconventional and unprecedented life. As he wrote in his first autobiographical essay in 1993, the year before he was first elected to the House of Representatives, “In my youth, I spent my time in the Mediterranean, in a hotel room with a view of the sea, drinking and drinking,” which became a topic of conversation. It sounds nice to say that he speaks without rancor, but people around him are worried that he might cause a slip of the tongue.
In 2011, when he was Minister of State for Economic and Security Affairs, he was harshly criticized by his party for refusing to answer an opposition party’s question about the Broadcasting Act, saying, “If you don’t trust [my answer], please don’t ask me any more questions.
He is a hard-core right-winger within the party, as evidenced by his statement at a meeting of the House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee that “I myself am of a generation that cannot be said to have been a party to the war, so I do not reflect on it. I hope that his principles will not be a hindrance in his future foreign policy. ……
There is more to be concerned about. Although Takaichi is known as a “policy bug,” his ability to implement his policies is still questionable. The most important reason is his “fragile internal party base.
Although the presidential race suggests that Takaichi has the kingmaker Aso on his side, Keisuke Yamada, a commentator on Jiji Press, points out that “there is a possibility of a clash on the policy front.
Mr. Takaichi is a proactive fiscal activist, while Mr. Aso is a fiscal reconstructionist with experience as Minister of Finance. They are just riding on a winning horse this time, but they are not on the same page when it comes to fiscal policy. Mr. Takaichi has said that necessary budget increases, such as defense spending, include the issuance of deficit-covering government bonds. He has also indicated that he will not rule out a consumption tax cut, which the opposition parties are demanding, and if he were to put forth Mr. Takaichi’s colors, he would be at odds with Mr. Aso. Mr. Takaichi, who has a weak base within the party, will have no choice but to rely on Mr. Aso, and will end up becoming his puppet.
It would be tempting to rely on Hagiuda, Nishimura, and the other members of the former Abe faction, who were hospitable at the debriefing, but it remains to be seen whether they still have any influence in the faction that was scattered by the slush fund issue.
Growing crisis with the departure of Komeito.
Challenges are piling up even in cooperation with other parties. Journalist Tetsuo Suzuki said, “Mr. Takaichi himself does not have a strong connection with the opposition parties.
Mr. Takaichi himself does not have a strong connection with the opposition parties, and although Mr. Aso is in contact with the National Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), the future is uncertain. What is bigger than that is Komeito’s defection. There are about 50 councilors, mainly young people, who are expected to lose the election without the votes of the Kōmeitō, and there will be a pushback from them in the future. For the time being, there will be little opposition due to the celebratory market, but now that the factional system has been restored, as seen in the Aso faction, if Mr. Takaichi, who has few friends, is unable to display the conservative colors of his own, public opinion will be less supportive.
He has managed to stay in power by suppressing his own original colors, pandering to his elders, and looking out for the other parties’ interests. …… There is a fear that the same barren political wrangling that we saw a year ago will be repeated.
Risks Lurking in Sanaenomics
On the other hand, directly related to people’s lives is the “price hike countermeasure. Sanaenomics” by Governor Takaichi, which follows Abenomics, is designed to stimulate the economy by allowing the issuance of government bonds and allowing money to circulate in the market, but there are risks associated with this policy.
Abenomics has raised nominal wages, but real wages have been negative as the yen has weakened. The number of non-regular employees has increased dramatically and polarization has progressed. Economic analyst Keisuke Nakahara sounds the alarm.
Even if we inject money into the market now, the ongoing depreciation of the yen will only lead to further price hikes and put pressure on people’s lives. What is really needed is not “painkillers” such as monetary easing and tax cuts, but a growth strategy from a long-term perspective. Also, large-scale fiscal stimulus can have disastrous consequences. In 2010, Liz Truss, the female Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, announced a tax cut plan with no financial backing, which was met with general dismay from the financial markets, and the pound and government bonds collapsed. She was forced to step down after only 49 days. This is an extreme example, but there is no guarantee that it will not happen in Japan as well.
One veteran lawmaker spoke of the possibility of a “short-lived administration,” following in the footsteps of the Ishiba administration, which lasted less than a year.
Ishiba and Takaichi are very similar. They have no friends in the party and are not good at political gamesmanship. Even if they want to express their own originality, they have to watch their elders’ faces, and if they become soft, they will be criticized by the public. In the end, both the members of the Diet and the public are leaving the party. It won’t be long before they go under.
The new president is expected to steer the government with a keen eye on the future.
From the October 24/31, 2025 issue of “FRIDAY
PHOTO： Hiroyuki Komatsu (1st) Sankei Visual (2nd) Afro (4th)
