Could Yuichiro Tamaki Become Japan’s Next PM? Opposition Unity Raises Unexpected Possibility

He says he cannot agree to unify the opposition candidates

Nagatacho has suddenly become hectic.

It is becoming uncertain whether Sanae Takaichi (64), who won the recent LDP leadership election, can smoothly take the “Prime Minister” seat.

Historically, the leader of the largest ruling party almost always transitions directly into the Prime Minister role, but currently the LDP holds only a minority in both the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors. In other words, if the opposition fields a unified candidate, the leadership vote could be overturned.

Amid this situation, Jun Azumi (63), secretary-general of the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, stated during the leadership vote:

“I’m not insisting on Representative Yoshihiko Noda (68),”

and suggested Yuichiro Tamaki (56), leader of the Democratic Party for the People, asking:

“Couldn’t you be the opposition’s unified candidate?”

The Japan Innovation Party, which had considered Shinjirō Koizumi (44) the winning horse in the LDP leadership race, did not reject the CDP’s proposal regarding the leadership vote and joined the discussions. Tamaki’s name came up in those talks as well.

Tamaki, however, through his right-hand man Kazuya Hariba (58), firmly stated:

“We are not considering acting on calculations with parties holding different claims.”

He has made it clear that he will not accept the invitation at this point.

Tamaki himself also told Jiji Press in an October 9 interview that he cannot agree to unify the opposition candidates for the Prime Minister designation election.

The CDP side has promised to swiftly implement the DPP’s flagship policies, such as gasoline tax cuts and abolishing the income wall, in an effort to push for concessions.

“I have absolutely no interest in a cabinet post.”

“Originally, Tamaki’s political philosophy is close to the Liberal Democratic Party. During the Ishiba administration, which had a strong liberal bent, he clashed intensely, but with the current ‘Takaichi LDP’ having returned to conservatism, there are points of convergence. To go further, Tamaki has a certain reverence for the LDP, which has held power for many years. He has even said like a fan, ‘After all, it’s the LDP.’” (Political insider)

Before and after the leadership election, Tamaki’s aide, Hariba, met with Kingmaker Taro Aso (85), anticipating post-election political developments. LDP insiders have clearly stated:

“The top candidate for coalition is the Democratic Party for the People.”

However, the Rengo labor federation, which supports the Democratic Party for the People, is strongly opposed to entering the government. On October 7, at Rengo’s regular convention, where Tamaki also spoke, Chairwoman Tomoko Yoshino said:

“Many opinions have been received questioning why actions are being taken that differ from Rengo’s policies and approach.”

To this, Tamaki responded:

“No need to worry. I have absolutely no interest in a cabinet post, so I want to focus on policy implementation.”

A political reporter for a national newspaper commented:

“Considering Rengo’s perspective, it’s likely they won’t enter a coalition but will cooperate on a policy-by-policy basis. That said, since Takaichi and Tamaki share many policy points, some see this as a de facto coalition.”

Politics is unpredictable. One cannot take his denials at face value. What are the real chances of a Prime Minister Tamaki? We asked political commentator Harumi Arima.

“Tamaki is likely carefully considering how to enhance the value of the Democratic Party for the People. If the opposition coalition takes power, criticism of it being just a numbers game will arise, but politics is about numbers, and numbers equal power. Since the public hasn’t given the LDP a majority, an opposition government would align with the public’s intent. Even if offered the Prime Minister post, Tamaki’s likelihood of joining the opposition coalition is low.

During the Kishida Cabinet two years ago, the Democratic Party for the People had already discussed coalition talks with the LDP, so the groundwork exists. But it will likely not take the form of a coalition; rather, it will be external cooperation. Raising the income wall from 1.03 million yen to 1.78 million yen would be the minimum requirement for this. Even without a cabinet post, the party could gain significant public trust by achieving policy goals. Becoming prime minister through an opposition coalition could result in a short-lived term. Considering his political career and the party’s future, external cooperation with the LDP seems the most likely path.”

In any case, the Democratic Party for the People now holds the political casting vote. Whether it cooperates with the LDP or the opposition coalition, one thing is certain: Tamaki’s influence has significantly increased.