Sanae Takaichi Faces Early Dissolution Rumors as Taro Aso’s Strategy Shapes Coalition Politics

The Image of A Man Who Wants to Be Prime Minister but Can’t

In the recent Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership election, Sanae Takaichi (64) overturned expectations favoring Shinjirō Koizumi (44) and became the first female party president in history.

While there were many factors behind her victory, a major one was undoubtedly the presence of kingmaker Taro Aso (85).

“In the end, the boss (Aso) controlled the distribution of lawmakers’ votes. He managed the give-and-take behind the scenes to ensure Takaichi won the runoff. At 85, he’s still vigorous despite his age,” said a political reporter for a national newspaper.

At the same time, some see this as a return to factional politics, even as the LDP had promoted a complete overhaul agenda.

Meanwhile, many were disappointed at Koizumi’s defeat, despite being considered a near-certain winner. Local voters in his home prefecture of Kanagawa expressed their dismay:

“I never imagined he’d lose.”

This marks his second loss in LDP leadership elections. The future looks uncertain for a man long touted as a future Prime Minister.

“Last year may have been different, but losing this leadership election is painful. His speech right before the runoff lacked substance and enthusiasm. They say third time’s the charm, but it seems unlikely now. He’s earning the image of a man who wants to be Prime Minister but can’t,” said an LDP insider.

The next selection for the Prime Minister could be as early as mid-October. While the opposition might field a unified candidate, the path is steep, and the odds are high that Takaichi will become the new Prime Minister.

For the future of the administration, understanding the mindset of her mentor, Taro Aso, will be more important than focusing solely on Takaichi herself.

One key challenge is the coalition partner. It’s true that there are signs of friction with the Komeito Party, which has long maintained a cooperative relationship with the LDP.

The presence of slush fund lawmakers that worries the Komeito Party

The presence of Komeito Party leader Tetsuo Saito’s (73) unusual warning to newly elected LDP president Sanae Takaichi over issues of politics and money, as well as historical awareness, reflects these tensions. Additionally, Taro Aso is said to have a strong dislike for Komeito.

“In the end, the Komeito Party will likely continue its coalition with the LDP,” says political commentator Harumi Arima. In an interview with this site, he explained:

“For the Soka Gakkai members who form Komeito’s support base and advocate welfare and peace, it’s hard to imagine fully supporting a Takaichi administration that visits Yasukuni Shrine. Likewise, her appointment of Koichi Hagiuda (62), a slush fund lawmaker, as deputy secretary-general is unacceptable to those who demand integrity. Saito is voicing these supporters’ concerns to the LDP. Without Komeito’s backing, the LDP could lose around 50 seats. That said, after 25 years of coalition, it’s likely they will return to the fold once political compromises are reached.”

Currently, a new potential coalition partner is the Democratic Party for the People, led by Yuichiro Tamaki (56). Before and after the leadership election, No. 2 Katsunari Hariba (58) met with Aso multiple times.

“Aso’s top choice for a coalition is the Democratic Party for the People. He sees policy alignment with Takaichi as a way to team up. They plan to quickly address the party’s priorities—like gasoline tax cuts and income thresholds—and use that as leverage. A Takaichi + Tamaki leadership is expected to resonate with conservative voters,” said a political insider.

Takaichi has denied any early dissolution of the lower house. On the leadership election announcement day, September 22, she told reporters:

“(Dissolution) is unthinkable.”

However, election strategy is always on Aso’s mind. As a minority ruling party, passing legislation requires constant negotiation with opposition parties, a process he considers unhealthy.

“Some in politics claim there will be no immediate election, but it’s unwise to underestimate the situation. Strike while the iron is hot. Once the administration consolidates its base, movements could occur as early as the end of this year or the start of the next,” a self-described LDP insider said quietly.

Support from conservatives who drifted away under the Ishiba leadership is rapidly returning under Takaichi. According to the latest JNN poll, 66% of respondents expressed expectations for the new president.

Arima analyzes:

“LDP support may temporarily rise, but she will likely be too cautious to call a snap election. The Sangi-to Party may gain seats, which could come at the LDP’s expense. It will be important to govern steadily for one to two years to earn public approval.”

With Takaichi as prime minister, Japan’s rightward shift seems inevitable. While it would likely be welcomed by former U.S. President Trump, deterioration of relations with China is a concern. Aggressive fiscal policies could also drive higher prices.

How this will ultimately affect citizens’ daily lives remains uncertain.