Tensions Rise in North Korea as Kim’s Sister and Daughter Emerge as Rival Heirs

Kim Ju-ae to Succeed North Korean Power

On September 24, the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (HRNK), a U.S.-based NGO, released a report under this title, suggesting that Kim Jong-un’s daughter, Kim Ju-ae, is highly likely to be his successor. Who leads North Korea is a matter of great importance, as it could significantly affect issues such as Japan’s abduction problem. However, the transition of power from Kim Jong-un to Kim Ju-ae may not proceed so smoothly.

Kim Jong-un is currently 41 years old, and Ju-ae is said to be 12. Although it may seem early to designate a successor, Pyon Jin-il, editor-in-chief of Korea Report and an expert on the Korean Peninsula, explains that Kim Jong-un’s decision stems from his bitter personal experience.

“Kim Jong-un was reportedly named successor by his father, Kim Jong-il, around 2009–2010. Shortly afterward, in December 2011, Kim Jong-il died suddenly of a heart attack. Lacking sufficient experience as a successor, Kim Jong-un faced fierce resistance from military and party factions due to his weak power base. As a result, he was forced into a series of bloody purges and abrupt dismissals to consolidate his control.

It was undoubtedly a bitter experience for him. To avoid repeating that situation, Kim Jong-un likely designated Ju-ae as his successor early on. He has been taking her on foreign visits—including to China—to build her record as a leader, while also increasing her public appearances at home to strengthen the loyalty of the military and the party.”

Mentally and politically unstable

Indeed, Kim Ju-ae accompanied Kim Jong-un on his visit to China in September, and she has been making more public appearances domestically, such as during missile test inspections. However, as Pyon Jin-il warns, “In the Kim family, anything can happen—things rarely go according to plan.”

“There have been multiple internal conflicts in the Kim family involving women. For instance, consider Kim Jong-il’s two wives, Sung Hye-rim and Ko Yong-hui. Sung, who gave birth to Kim Jong-nam, became mentally and socially unstable after Kim Jong-il’s affection shifted to Ko. She was eventually sent to Moscow, where she died in loneliness. As you know, her son Kim Jong-nam was later assassinated, and Kim Jong-un, born to Ko Yong-hui, rose to power.

When Kim Jong-un became leader, his power base was weak, so he was supported by his aunt, Kim Kyong-hui. However, when her husband, Jang Song-thaek, displayed a defiant attitude, Kim Jong-un had him purged and executed. Since then, Kim Kyong-hui’s whereabouts have been uncertain, and she is said to have lived a life of isolation.”

Even if Ju-ae becomes the designated successor, another source of instability looms — Kim Jong-un’s sister, Kim Yo-jong. Pyon outlines what he calls a terrifying scenario.

“Kim Yo-jong holds a senior post as vice department director of the Workers’ Party and enjoys her brother’s deep trust as his spokesperson. She likely feels, ‘I’m the one who has been leading North Korea.’ It would not be surprising if she resisted or refused to submit to the much younger, inexperienced Ju-ae. As long as Kim Jong-un is alive, no conflict will arise — he serves as Ju-ae’s guardian.

However, there are ongoing concerns about Kim Jong-un’s health, including diabetes and heart disease. After his death, powerful figures around Kim Yo-jong could rally behind her, allowing her to seize power from Ju-ae. In that case, a woman vs. woman power struggle — sister versus daughter — could erupt.”

North Korea’s internal power struggle is no distant issue for Japan, either. The country’s bloody history of internal purges may well repeat itself.