Koizumi Camp Shifts Strategy: Full Transparency May Tip the Leadership Race

With advice from a veteran who retired from politics

Following the resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba (68), the Liberal Democratic Party’s leadership election was announced on September 22 (with voting on October 4), with five candidates lined up: Toshimitsu Motegi (69), Takayuki Kobayashi (50), Yoshimasa Hayashi (64), Sanae Takaichi (64), and Shinjiro Koizumi (44).

The leadership election is conducted in a full-spec format, where not only Diet members but also party members and supporters nationwide cast votes, with party member and supporter voting closing on October 3.

Pre-election forecasts positioned Koizumi, who secured the backing of senior LDP figures, as the front-runner. Next in line were Takaichi, who won the most party member votes in last year’s leadership election, and Hayashi, known for his strong administrative skills. Motegi and Kobayashi faced a tough road.

Each candidate has strengths and weaknesses. Koizumi had been the top pick in last year’s leadership race but faltered during subsequent debates. This time, some advised a “Koizumi concealment” strategy to avoid repeating past mistakes.

“Katsunobu Kato, serving as the head of Koizumi’s campaign, tends to restrict media coverage to prevent gaffes. Indeed, at the campaign launch on September 19, no photo session at the beginning of the meeting was held. Kato was questioned by reporters about the absence of the session and had to explain himself,” said a TV network insider.

The “Koizumi concealment” was considered a key to victory. However, Koizumi reportedly rejected this approach.

“Initially, Koizumi’s camp considered having him attend the ASEAN agriculture ministers’ meeting near the end of the leadership election. Ostensibly, this was to fulfill his duties as agriculture minister, but it was also a tactic to avoid mistakes at the last moment. However, as this plan had leaked, Koizumi declared to the campaign team, ‘We’ll go full open.’ On September 21, he toured a fishing port in Chiba with the media and later held a rally in Saitama. Unlike the campaign launch, both events were open to coverage, and he responded to reporters twice in a single day. This was meant to convey, ‘I am different from last year,’” said a political reporter.

On the night of September 19, Koizumi visited the home of former party president Sadakazu Tanigaki, who had retired from politics, for about 40 minutes. According to political sources:

“Tanigaki advised him, ‘You should listen to the voices of many people,’ and ‘You must not shy away from debate.’ It was Tanigaki who influenced Koizumi’s change.”

The image of Takaichi’s support group = slush fund lawmakers

Nevertheless, those around him are on edge, wondering when he might slip up. Rival camps are targeting Mr. Shinjirō and plan to challenge him in debates. A campaign staffer from another faction commented:

“There’s no way Shinjirō can change drastically in just one year. Rice prices are rising again. It will be interesting to see how he responds when they probe these issues.”

Another leading candidate, Ms. Takaichi, faces internal dilemmas.

She is seen as a sharper conservative than other candidates, earning strong support from older party members, but many lawmakers are wary of her.

“The key point is, as always, the lawmaker votes. In last year’s leadership race, 13 out of 20 nominators caused a stir as so-called slush fund lawmakers. This time, they tried to pick more reputable supporters, but the image of Takaichi’s backers = slush fund lawmakers persists. Recently, when former Education Minister Hirofumi Shimomura tweeted on X, Takaichi Sanae is the only choice, there was an outcry of don’t say unnecessary things,” said a national politics reporter.

At her candidacy press conference on September 19, when House member Hitoshi Oikawa was calling on reporters to raise their hands, he described them as:

“Those with darker features”
“On the contrary, those with lighter features, not dark”

To which Ms. Takaichi exclaimed, “What are you saying!” Oikawa later apologized, saying:

“That was an inappropriate expression. I want to apologize to everyone who felt uncomfortable, including the reporters.”

“Last year, Takaichi clearly stated that she would continue visiting Yasukuni Shrine even if she became prime minister, which affected the runoff vote. This time, she seems to be restraining sharp statements, but that leaves her long-time supporters dissatisfied. She has been reportedly asking close university professors recently, ‘What should I do?’ for advice,” said a political insider.

A survey by Nippon TV indicated that Mr. Shinjirō is likely to win decisively with strong support from party members. Ms. Takaichi is being challenged by the “third candidate,” Mr. Hayashi, and may not even make it to the runoff.

“To reverse the race, she would need to generate excitement like the Ishimaru fever or the rise of the Sanseitō in nationwide campaigns. There are rumors of health concerns, but she may need to boldly push her national vision to the forefront,” added the aforementioned reporter.

All factions are fiercely competing, but where does the key to victory lie in this leadership race? Political commentator Harumi Arima said:

“Shinjirō has been warned by campaign chief Katsunobu Kato not to make sharp statements. That’s why his previous proposals, like reviewing dismissal regulations or selective married couple surnames, are not emphasized. Meanwhile, his rival Takaichi avoids commenting on Yasukuni visits if she becomes prime minister. Since the party is now a minority in the Diet, even a leadership election requires consideration of the opposition. This race requires extreme caution to avoid being caught off guard, which is now the key to victory. But just having promises that sound good to everyone is far from a true party reformation. Citizens might still ask, ‘Why did we remove Prime Minister Ishiba!’ and that’s understandable.”

Whether Shinjirō’s full engagement will be advantageous remains to be seen but there’s no doubt that the leadership race is revolving around him.