njiro Faces Fraud Critique, Takaichi Mocked as Female Ishiba—The Latest on Japan’s LDP Contenders

On September 22, the battle to choose the new leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) officially began.

The frontrunners are Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi (44) and former Minister of Economic Security Sanae Takaichi (64). Alongside them, five candidates in total—including Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi (64), former Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi (69), and former Minister of Economic Security Takayuki Kobayashi (50)—are vying for the top position. At his announcement, Koizumi described the LDP’s current stance as effectively close to the opposition and stated:

“We will engage in sincere discussions with the opposition, invite them to policy negotiations, and actively discuss the possibility of coalition governance.”

This leadership election differs decisively from previous ones. In last year’s general election and the July Upper House election, the LDP suffered major defeats, becoming a minority in both chambers for the first time in its history. The traditional equation of LDP president = prime minister no longer holds. Unless the opposition is divided in the prime ministerial vote, the LDP cannot secure the premiership, and without opposition cooperation, not a single bill can pass in the Diet.

Under these circumstances, being close to the opposition has become a necessary qualification. At the candidates’ announcement events, unusual questions regarding coalition expansion were raised.

“There has been talk of a coalition with the rapidly growing Sanseitō, but with only three members in the House of Representatives, they cannot serve as a complementary force. Considering policy alignment, the most compatible options are the Japan Innovation Party or the Democratic Party for the People. Who would have thought we’d reach an era where LDP leadership candidates publicly showcase their connections to opposition parties?” said a reporter from a national newspaper’s political desk.

Fails to differentiate from other candidates

Sanae Takaichi is seen as disadvantaged. She avoids drinking parties, prefers to study materials and develop policies in her parliamentary dorm, and is nicknamed the female Ishiba within the party for her academic, studious style.

“She struggles with socializing. After her defeat in the previous LDP leadership race, she has tried to build allies within the party. When it comes to opposition contacts, she mainly has ties with Takashi Endo (57), the Diet Affairs Committee chairman of the Japan Innovation Party. However, Endo is unusual—during the last leadership election with nine candidates, he reportedly socialized with all eight except Ishiba. His sociable nature makes it hard for Takaichi to stand out. Even Ishiba, who is not great at networking, maintained direct lines with LDP opposition figures like Yukihiko Noda (68) of the Constitutional Democratic Party and former co-leader Seiji Maehara (63) of the Japan Innovation Party, quietly managing difficult Diet operations behind the scenes in the Akasaka dorms,” said a former member of the Ishiba faction.

Takaichi also faces concern from Komeito, a key coalition partner. On the 7th, just after Ishiba’s resignation press conference, Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito (73) issued an unusual statement for the LDP leadership race: “We cannot form a coalition unless the candidate shares the principles of a moderate-conservative path.”

“At her September 19 announcement, when asked about cooperation with opposition parties, Takaichi mentioned working with Komeito on revisions to the child pornography law, emphasizing that LDP-Komeito is the fundamental foundation. She also said she would consider forming a coalition with opposition parties whose basic policies align, proposing policies like raising the income ceiling central to the Democratic Party for the People. Regarding the Innovation Party’s condition of a sub-capital concept, she responded by saying she would build a system to support capital functions, signaling her willingness to both parties through policy.” added the reporter.

Like Takaichi—or even more so—Shinjiro Koizumi is leading the LDP leadership race. Koizumi’s camp has gained support from former candidates Katsuya Kato (69), Minister of Finance, and Taro Kono (62), former Foreign Minister. At the September 22 kick-off event, 92 Diet members, including proxies, attended. After the event, Seiko Noda commented:

“Last year, most of the campaign staff were young, but this time there are more older men, so I don’t feel isolated as an older woman. The atmosphere is very positive.”

In the previous race, Koizumi dominated the parliamentary vote, but his support among party members failed to expand after successive debates, leaving him in third place. At his September 20 announcement, he was frequently seen glancing at notes during Q&A sessions with reporters. Compared to candidates like Hayashi or Kobayashi, who spoke without notes and maintained steady eye contact, Koizumi’s performance appeared weaker.

“His communication skills are outstanding, but his debate skills are a challenge. Last year, a reporter criticized him for low intellectual level, and this year the same reporter called him a fraud. Koizumi responded with a smile: ‘If that logic applies, all candidates are frauds. I am aware of the strict scrutiny,’ which amused the audience. Still, because he hasn’t developed his own policies, he shows weakness in policy debates.

Previously, he abandoned bold proposals, such as optional separate surnames for married couples, in favor of a safer, cautious approach. Phrases like unite the LDP and internal harmony seem intended to avoid controversy, but, as in the last election, he risks faltering during debates,” the reporter added.

The debate has only exposed factional politics and the dominance of the party’s elders

Deputy LDP President Yoshihide Suga has publicly declared that he intends to make Koizumi prime minister. Suga, who served as Chief Cabinet Secretary under the Abe administration, has built his own extensive network across the political and business worlds, including ties with the Japan Innovation Party and Komeito.

“Initially, Suga planned for Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi to lead as party president, while Koizumi would be groomed as secretary-general or chief cabinet secretary. Former Prime Minister Ishiba supported this development plan but Koizumi was eager to run, and although Hayashi is capable, his public recognition is low. Suga wanted to prevent Takaichi from seizing the leadership,” said a party lawmaker.

Nightly news programs are filled with coverage of the leadership race, but will LDP support recover as intended? Political journalist Koichi Kakutani commented:

The candidates only real innovation is promoting their closeness to opposition parties. While they speak of party renewal, all they’re really doing is paying respects to former prime ministers and gathering Diet members to demonstrate that numbers equal power. This leadership race exposes the old patterns of factional politics and elder dominance. Citizens seeing this are left wondering what, if anything, has really changed in the LDP.”

Even if the party continues its old ways and expands a coalition with some opposition, it risks losing its position as the leading party in comparison to others.