LDP Leadership Race Draws Criticism as Takaichi and Koizumi Face Off

The most likely candidate for president at the moment

“‘Are you going to leave too…?”

On the evening of September 6, the day before he announced his resignation, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba (68) met with Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi (44) at the prime minister’s official residence. Dark circles under Ishiba’s eyes and a strong look of fatigue marked his face.

On that day, a meeting had actually taken place with Deputy President Yoshihide Suga (76), making it a three-person discussion. After the meeting, Ishiba held Koizumi back, and the two spoke privately for an hour and a half—reflecting on the past year’s struggles and regrets over unfinished initiatives. Ishiba said to him:

“I hope you will carry forward the agricultural reforms and the establishment of the Disaster Prevention Agency that I could not accomplish.”

Koizumi quietly nodded, sensing the prime minister’s inner thoughts that especially Takaichi, among the anti-Ishiba faction, must not become prime minister.

On September 22, the battle to choose the next LDP president will begin. As of 5 p.m. on September 17, the declared candidates are Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi (64), former Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi (69), and former Economic Security Minister Takayuki Kobayashi (50). Former Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi (64) and Koizumi have also indicated their intention to run, making it likely that these five will compete for the next presidency.

This election will be conducted in a “full-spec” format, with votes from both Diet members and party members nationwide. If no candidate secures a majority in the first round, a runoff will be held between the top two candidates. A political desk editor from a national newspaper explains the latest situation:

‘Takaichi has overwhelming support among party members. As a hardline right-winger, she enjoys strong backing from the party’s conservative base. Her main rival will likely be Koizumi. In addition to support from Suga, if there is a runoff, Koizumi can also count on backing from former Prime Ministers Fumio Kishida (68), who differs in political beliefs from Takaichi, and Shigeru Ishiba, with whom he has shared both hardships and successes. Basically, it will come down to a showdown between these two.”

Although Koizumi is gathering support from influential former prime ministers, the position of the Shikōkai faction, led by Senior Advisor Taro Aso (84) with 43 members, remains uncertain. In the previous election, they ultimately backed Takaichi.

‘Takaichi, anticipating the presidential race, visited Aso in July to seek his support. But it seems to have been unrequited. Aso is mainly concerned with how to return to the mainstream. Since Koizumi has stronger backing from former prime ministers, he currently has a higher chance of becoming president. In August, Koizumi visited Aso at the Diet and chatted for 30 minutes. Those around them noted, “Koizumi always makes the proper greetings,” and Aso seemed not displeased,’ says a veteran LDP lawmaker.”

“In the end, I have no choice but to rely on my faction.”

Shinjiro Koizumi is steadily consolidating his support within the party, but even if he were to become LDP president, doubts remain about his political capabilities. For instance, does he have any concrete measures to tackle the urgent issue of rising prices?

“Koizumi, who calls himself the ‘Minister in charge of rice,’ has been constantly appearing on TV to promote lowering rice prices. Yet, in the first week of September, the average price for 5 kg of rice fell into the 4,000-yen range for the first time since June, showing no effect. In fact, this could become a vulnerability in the next general election, with agricultural voters potentially turning against him. His ability to formulate and implement policies has always been questionable, and in the previous LDP leadership race, he lost support once debates began. With his unpredictable sexy remarks, he hardly seems fit for the top post,” says a mid-ranking LDP lawmaker.

On the other hand, Takaichi also faces concerns:

“Above all, her support base within the party is weak. Even if she proposes policies, her lack of popularity means they rarely get implemented. Some even mock her as the female Ishiba. She also tends to get heated during debates. In the 2023 discussion over the interpretation of political fairness under the Broadcast Act, she became furious under opposition questioning, slammed documents on the desk, and shouted. She is emotional and lacks the cunning of someone like Ishiba, who can evade skillfully. Moreover, the Komeito party, which she would need to form a coalition with, has effectively given her a warning, saying they can only cooperate with conservative-moderate leaders. She also lacks influential allies in other parties, meaning she would have to negotiate while bending to others. Managing the Diet as president would likely be difficult,” the lawmaker adds.

Neither of the leading candidates seems fit to lead the party or the nation. Among younger lawmakers, there is concern that “if the candidates are weak, factional power will inevitably dominate. In a period when party reform is needed, can we afford to revert to factional politics?” says political journalist Koichi Kakutani.

“Former prime ministers and faction elders simply want to back the likely winner. By doing so, their faction secures better positions in a patronage system. The LDP could revert to its old ways, with the elders setting the direction. Whichever candidate becomes president, this farce could repeat itself,” he warns.

Amid the leadership election, national politics remains at a standstill. What’s more, whichever way the outcome goes, there is only anxiety—an unfortunate two-choice scenario. This farce could well mark the ‘beginning of the end’ for Japan.

From the October 3-10, 2025 issue of “FRIDAY”