Komeito’s Delicate Position in the LDP Leadership Race Between Takaichi and Koizumi
The truth behind Aso’s remark: “Why not just go with Shinjiro?”
With the resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba (68), the schedule for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election has been officially set: the election will be announced on September 22 and voting and ballot counting will take place on October 4. It will be conducted in a “full-scale” format, meaning that both Diet members and all party members/supporters nationwide will vote. Ballots from party members and supporters will close on October 3.
As of now, five candidates have officially declared their intention to run: Toshimitsu Motegi (69), Yoshimasa Hayashi (64), Sanae Takaichi (64), Takayuki Kobayashi (50), and Shinjiro Koizumi (44). According to political observers, the contest is expected to come down to a one-on-one battle between Takaichi—who made it to the runoff in last year’s election—and Koizumi, who served as agriculture minister under the Ishiba administration.
“In a full-scale election, Takaichi has strong support, but with multiple candidates running, it’s unlikely anyone will win a majority in the first round. A runoff is very likely. The most probable opponent in that runoff would be Koizumi, though there’s a small chance Hayashi could make it through,” said one political insider.
Politics often sees trial-balloon rumors. One example was the false reports that Koizumi would not run. When asked about this by reporters, former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga—Koizumi’s mentor—brushed it off, saying:
“Do you actually believe that kind of talk?”
Meanwhile, reports circulated that senior advisor Taro Aso, a key figure in the anti-Ishiba movement, had said:
“Why not just go with Shinjiro?”
However, insiders now say the credibility of that claim is questionable.
Aso is said to be simply pleased that his rival Ishiba has stepped down and intends to sit back and watch the race from above—backing whichever candidate emerges as the front-runner after the first round.
“Koizumi is likely to have the support of former Prime Minister Suga and parts of the Ishiba faction. Takaichi, as before, will rely heavily on Aso and the remnants of the former Abe faction. The key player will be former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s faction, the Kochikai. Last time, it was their votes in the runoff that secured Ishiba’s victory. All the candidates are now visiting Kishida—so much so that he’s even being called the shadow shogun of politics,” said a senior political reporter from a national newspaper.
Those watching the election closely aren’t limited to the LDP. The ruling coalition partner, Komeito, also has much at stake. On September 7, Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito commented regarding the LDP race:
“If the next leader doesn’t share our centrist-conservative ideals, we cannot remain in coalition.”
Online, this was widely interpreted as a direct rebuke of Takaichi, who is often viewed as having right-leaning views, and it caused a significant stir.
“Representative Saito was quickly forced to engage in damage control after his remarks, but the fact remains that Komeito’s parent organization, Soka Gakkai, has long been rooted in pacifism. Among its divisions, the Women’s Division (now called the Women’s Department), which wields particularly strong influence, is said to be wary of Takaichi. Taro Aso—who backed Takaichi in the previous leadership race—is well known for his dislike of Soka Gakkai. If Takaichi were to become prime minister, it could cause a serious rift between the LDP and Komeito,” said the same national newspaper reporter.
Soka Gakkai, known for its overwhelming vote-mobilizing power, has nonetheless been facing long-term issues of declining membership and aging followers. In last year’s House of Representatives election, Komeito’s seats fell from 32 before the campaign to 24. In the July House of Councillors election, the party’s seats dropped sharply as well—from 14 up for re-election to just 8.
Even if Koizumi were to become the new LDP president, his political presence could be weakened depending on what kind of coalition partner he chooses.
Suga Yoshihide, who has close ties with the Komeito party
“When it comes to Mr. Shinjiro Koizumi,” said a source from Nagatachō, “he is known to have close ties with Hirofumi Yoshimura, the leader of Nippon Ishin no Kai (Japan Innovation Party). If he were to become prime minister, it’s said he would explore forming a coalition with Ishin. In last year’s lower house election, Komeito was completely defeated by Ishin in all four Osaka constituencies. Naturally, Komeito would not welcome Ishin joining the coalition. Fierce clashes over electoral district coordination are expected.”
The only saving grace is that Koizumi’s political mentor is former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga. Suga has long maintained strong connections with the upper leadership of the Soka Gakkai — Komeito’s influential religious backer — since the late Shinzo Abe’s administration.
“Lately, there have been concerns about Suga’s decline due to age,” said a political insider, but his mind is still sharp as ever — people are being fooled by his calm demeanor (laughs). As long as Suga is active, he’ll make sure to maintain good relations with Komeito.”
When this site asked political analyst Harumi Arima for his view, he said:
“For Komeito, a party of peace and welfare, it would be emotionally difficult to align with someone as right-leaning as Ms. Sanae Takaichi. If Mr. Koizumi were to become party president, a coalition government of the LDP, Komeito, and Ishin — a so-called ‘LDP-Komeito-Ishin’ coalition — could emerge. Naturally, Komeito wouldn’t be thrilled about adding another coalition partner. However, having tasted the ‘forbidden fruit’ of being part of the ruling bloc for over 25 years, Komeito cannot easily give that up. Therefore, even if Takaichi or Koizumi were to become LDP president, Komeito is unlikely to immediately consider leaving the coalition.”
Even after a new party leader is chosen, turbulence could follow in the subsequent prime ministerial selection. Politics is a world where darkness lies just one step ahead — and no one can predict how it will all end.
PHOTO.： Takeshi Kinugawa
