Former MLB Pitcher Flags Roki Sasaki’s 7.00 Triple-A ERA as Warning Sign

It was a rough outing from the very first pitch.

Roki Sasaki (23) of the Dodgers, pitching for Triple-A Sugar Land on September 3 (Japan time), gave up a two-run hit by pitch, then another two runs following a walk… finishing with five innings, three hits, three walks/hit batters, and four earned runs, taking the loss. Through four minor league rehab starts so far, he has a 0–2 record with a 7.07 ERA (as of September 4).

“Since being placed on the injured list on May 13 with right shoulder impingement syndrome, Sasaki has been rehabbing in Triple-A, but results have been poor. The concerning factors are velocity and control. Sasaki joined the Dodgers this season with a signing bonus exceeding 1 billion yen, relying on his 100-mph (about 161 km/h) fastball. However, in the September 3 Sugar Land game, his fastball averaged 94.4 mph (about 151.9 km/h).

His pinpoint control, which was outstanding during his time with the Lotte Marines, has deteriorated in the U.S. In Japan, he averaged about two walks per game, but in the minors it’s close to six. His strikeout rate has also declined. While he used to rack up strikeouts far exceeding his innings in Japan, in Triple-A he has only eight strikeouts over 14 innings,” said a sports reporter.

“This season looks hopeless.”

The drop in velocity is likely related to shoulder pain. Regarding his declining control, Takashi Kawamura, a Tsukuba University professor and pitching mechanics expert, explained in Friday’s May 30 issue:

“He twists his hips quite a bit in a tornado-like motion. Sasaki himself must realize his velocity has dropped compared to when he was in Japan. To transfer more force to the ball, he rotates his hips to generate extra twist. This twisting seems to negatively affect his overall body mechanics.”

Sasaki is reportedly aiming to return to the majors for the postseason. However, local media have been harsh after his struggles in the minors. Los Angeles Times reported after the Sugar Land game:

“This season has become a hopeless situation. Sasaki is not needed for the Dodgers’ push to the World Series.”

If things continue like this, a tough future awaits Sasaki. Former major leaguer Mac Suzuki, who played for the Mariners and Royals, commented:

“He should be the one who best understands his body condition, especially his shoulder. I understand he wants to return to the majors as soon as possible, but rushing will only lead to worse results. Sasaki is still 23 years old. Looking ahead to next season, he should step away from the mound this year and focus on rehab.

The Dodgers are in a fierce battle for first place in the NL West with the Padres. They don’t have the luxury of promoting a player who isn’t fully ready. At this pace, Sasaki’s presence will continue to fade. If he fails to perform next season, he may have to start over in the rookie league. And if that still doesn’t work, he could face the harsh reality of being released.”

Sasaki continues to struggle in the minors. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts also issued a stern comment:

“To pitch in the majors, he needs an overwhelming performance. He hasn’t reached that level yet.”