The Surprising Reason PM Ishiba Won’t Resign Despite Election Setback

Why Prime Minister Ishiba believes he is the right person to lead the party in this situation

“Once things settle down, the atmosphere in the party will change.”

Despite a crushing defeat in the Upper House election and intensifying calls within the LDP to bring him down, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba (68) has reportedly told those around him this with renewed determination to stay on.

Even after the party’s General Assembly of both Houses of Parliament on the 8th confirmed its intention to hold an extraordinary leadership election, pressure for him to resign has only grown. Yet, in contrast to the “Ousting Ishiba” movement inside the party, media opinion polls show relatively favorable numbers for his administration.

In Jiji Press’s August poll, when asked if Ishiba should resign following the Upper House result, 36.9% said yes while 39.9% said no. His approval rating also rose 6.5 points to 27.3%. Other outlets reported similar results, with more respondents saying they cannot accept the LDP’s internal campaign against Ishiba than those saying they can. Ishiba’s long-advocated rice production expansion policy also drew support from nearly 80% of the public.

On Friday nights, demonstrations with the slogan #IshibaDon’tQuit have drawn hundreds in front of LDP headquarters. Buoyed by this public sentiment, Ishiba is reportedly more resolved than ever to continue.

“From the Prime Minister’s perspective, his administration has been burdened since day one by the negative legacies of the former Abe faction—politics-and-money scandals, the Unification Church issue, and more. It was the former Abe faction that caused these problems, yet they are leading the ‘Oust Ishiba’ movement, dragging down the party instead of reforming its old ways. If he resigns now, it will only pave the way for Abe-faction lawmakers tainted by slush funds to return.

In parliament, the Abe government forced bills through with sheer numbers. In contrast, Ishiba has sat down face-to-face with the opposition in the regular session, negotiating to pass both the supplementary and main budgets. That’s why he says, ‘Who else can steer us through this difficult time? We cannot allow those who only think of their own revival to win.’ He no longer hides his anger toward the Abe faction, and voluntary resignation seems unlikely.” (Kantei staff member)

Still, many within the party insist, “He must take responsibility for the defeats in both the Lower and Upper House elections.” With the tug-of-war intensifying, anti-Ishiba forces are pinning their hopes on holding an extraordinary leadership election.

Would requiring names on the ballots alone make it advantageous to the Ishiba faction?

On August 19, the Liberal Democratic Party’s Presidential Election Management Committee held its first meeting to decide whether to implement an extraordinary leadership election. Originally scheduled for one hour, the meeting stretched to an hour and 45 minutes. Afterward, committee chair and House of Representatives member Ichirō Aisawa (71) stated:

“A sense of speed is necessary in a good way. At the same time, we must be strict and careful in designing the system to ensure an accurate confirmation of intent.”

This meeting followed the August 8 joint plenary session of party members from both houses, which decided to examine, based on Article 6, Paragraph 4 of the party rules, whether to hold an extraordinary leadership election. Implementing such an election before the end of a term is unprecedented in LDP history.

The extraordinary election will be held if a majority of the 342 eligible members—295 Diet members and 47 prefectural chapter representatives—demand it. That requires at least 172 requests. While the rules allow for advancing the leadership race with a majority, no detailed regulations exist, so the meeting began by working out procedural issues such as ballot or written response and signed or anonymous.

One committee member, speaking on condition of anonymity, explained:

“There was debate over whether responses should be signed or anonymous. Some suggested an anonymous ballot, like in a leadership election. But Chairman Aisawa questioned this, saying, ‘(An extraordinary leadership election) concerns the office of party president. It must be handled strictly. Unsigned ballots are not desirable.’ A proposal emerged requiring members to submit written responses with both signature and seal.”

Though discussions are ongoing, anonymous responses seem unlikely. If names are required, it would disadvantage the anti-Ishiba faction. Should they fail to reach a majority, the election would not be held, Ishiba’s government would continue, and those who supported holding the election would clearly be at risk of being sidelined in appointments.

“As of the August 8 joint plenary, roughly over half supported holding an election, Ishiba defenders numbered at most 20%, and about 30% were undecided. If names are required, it would heavily affect the undecided. Lawmakers serving as vice ministers, parliamentary secretaries, or in party positions would essentially have to resign if they openly backed holding an election. For anti-Ishiba forces eager to win over the undecided before the aftershocks of the Upper House defeat fade, delays only make things harder.” (same committee member)

While the committee is hurrying discussions, confirmation of lawmakers’ intentions is expected only after early September, following the official review of the Upper House election results.

Meanwhile, on August 19 Microsoft founder Bill Gates visited the Prime Minister’s Office. On the 20th, the 9th Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD9) opened in Yokohama. For Ishiba, these diplomatic events offer prime PR opportunities.

“On the 23rd–24th, South Korean President Lee Jae-myung will visit Japan for a summit. Indian Prime Minister Modi will visit on August 29–30. From September 23, the UN General Assembly will convene in New York, and preparations are underway for the Prime Minister’s address at the General Debate.

Former Prime Minister Abe excelled at this—meeting foreign leaders, even without tangible, created an impression of action and boosted approval ratings. If Ishiba’s approval ratings rise, not only the party but also the opposition will have to adjust.”

The anti-Ishiba camp, meanwhile, keeps calling for his ouster but has yet to settle on a post-Ishiba candidate. They also lack strategy for Diet management, such as coalition arrangements. Still, while favorable polls are encouraging, the disastrous election results remain. The question is how much understanding Ishiba can secure within the party by distancing himself from that defeat. (former Kantei staffer)

With the government seemingly on the brink after the crushing Upper House loss, Ishiba’s administration now faces a crossroads: plunge into an unprecedented, extraordinary leadership race or rebound on the strength of public support. Either way, the LDP’s internal strife itself could be called a national crisis.