Prospects for Japan’s First Female Prime Minister Dim as Takaichi Faces Party Confusion

If Takaichi becomes Prime Minister, negotiations with the opposition may face difficulties

As a candidate for the next prime minister, Lower House lawmaker Sanae Takaichi (64) is struggling.

In Nagatacho, following the LDP’s crushing defeat in the Upper House election, the movement to oust Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba (68) is intensifying. While Ishiba has emphasized his intention to stay on for the time being, some speculate that his resignation “X-Day” could come as early as late August.

If Ishiba steps down, what lies ahead is the LDP presidential election. Last September, Takaichi went head-to-head with Ishiba in the same arena, taking the contest all the way to a runoff, but her long-cherished dream still slipped out of reach.

“This time for sure”—such is the sentiment surrounding her. Yet a number of media outlets have raised concerns about the precariousness of her ideology. Some even attempt to link her with Munehide Kamiya (47), leader of the Sanseitō party, which made significant gains in the Upper House election.

“This has left Takaichi very perplexed. She’s being treated like an extreme right-wing politician, and speculation is spreading that, if she becomes prime minister, she might form a coalition with Sanseitō. There’s no doubt she’s a conservative, but Sanseitō, which champions a ‘Japan First’ agenda, is an entirely different entity. Her camp is scrambling to put out the fire. On its website, Sanseitō even publishes a ‘New Constitution (Draft Concept),’ in which some passages can be read as placing sovereignty in the hands of the state. No matter how much of a sensation Sanseitō was in the election, there’s no way Takaichi would align with them.” (Political reporter from a national daily)

Even so, among participants of localized “Don’t Resign, Ishiba” demonstrations, there was a chorus of concern about a Takaichi premiership and a coalition with Sanseitō.

Such perceptions are certain to weigh against her in the upcoming presidential race. According to an LDP insider:

“In the previous leadership election, former Prime Minister Tarō Asō, now the party’s supreme adviser, backed Takaichi. This time, however, he has set the condition of creating a system that can win the next Lower House election. If she takes the helm, some conservative votes that have drifted to other parties would likely return. But negotiations with the opposition could become difficult. Whether Asō will back her again is uncertain. Recently, support has been growing for figures seen as more moderate than Takaichi, such as Shinjiro Koizumi and Takayuki Kobayashi—nicknamed ‘Kobahawk.’”

She declared, “I will visit Yasukuni even if I become prime minister.”

Political commentator Harumi Arima also told this site:

“If you ask whether things would go smoothly if Takaichi became prime minister while heading a minority government, the answer is no—other parties won’t go along. That means bills won’t pass. With Ishiba as prime minister, bills were able to get through the Diet each time because Ishin, the Constitutional Democrats, and the Democratic Party for the People cooperated. For Takaichi, the Yasukuni issue looms large. The opposition’s stance is, ‘Why should we have to go along with right-wing politics?’ While some in Sanseitō, the Conservative Party, and a part of the Democratic Party for the People say, ‘That’s fine,’ from the standpoint of Diet management, the LDP’s prime minister needs to be liberal. And if Takaichi became prime minister, would the right-wing votes that flowed to Sanseitō or the Conservative Party come back to the LDP? That would be difficult.”

August 15 marks the anniversary of the end of the war. This year is the 80th memorial year since the conclusion of the Pacific War.

Takaichi has never failed to visit Yasukuni Shrine during the autumn festival or on the anniversary of the war’s end. This year too, on April 22, during the spring festival, she visited Yasukuni Shrine, signed the visitors’ book as “House of Representatives member Sanae Takaichi,” and personally paid for the tamagushi offering. After the visit, she told reporters:

“In the midst of facing the difficulty of fully defending our homeland, I offer my heartfelt and profound gratitude to the spirits of those who gave their lives for the national policy.”

“What Takaichi will do on August 15 is the question. In last September’s presidential election, her declaration that ‘I will visit Yasukuni even as prime minister’ ended up costing her in the end. After the election, senior party figures reportedly warned her, ‘If you want to become prime minister, don’t bring up Yasukuni.’ How she balances this going forward will be something to watch,” said a Nagatacho insider.

In an online program she appeared on last November, Takaichi cited her stance on Yasukuni visits and her opposition to optional separate surnames for married couples as reasons for her defeat in the leadership race, adding:

“I haven’t reflected on those points myself. I’ll probably get scolded again.”

Taken at face value, she is likely to visit Yasukuni again on this year’s anniversary of the war’s end.

“If she doesn’t go, she’ll disappoint the conservative base that supports her. If she does go, there will be debate, with China and others in mind, about the impact on Japan’s international relations,” said the aforementioned national newspaper reporter.

In a campaign speech for the Upper House election, Takaichi declared:

“I’ve steeled myself in my own way. I’ll restore the backbone of the party one more time. I will fight for that.”

Nagatacho interpreted this as the earliest sign of her eagerness to run in the LDP presidential election, but the kind of tailwind she had last year seems unlikely. The road to becoming the first female prime minister in Japan’s constitutional history remains distant and steep.