The Prime Minister’s Calm Amid the Ishiba Downfall and the Shadow of Takaichi Risk

The True Identity of Lawmakers Who Want Sanae Takaichi to Become Prime Minister

The power struggle within the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is intensifying.

In the July 20 Upper House election, the LDP suffered significant seat losses, and together with coalition partner Komeito, they fell short of the majority threshold of 125 seats. Following the House of Representatives, the ruling coalition is now a minority government, making future administration a thorny path.

However, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba (68) currently has no intention of stepping down. Voices of dissent are rising within the party, and a resignation encirclement is forming.

“The loudest voices come from lawmakers who suffered setbacks due to the Unification Church and secret funds scandals, supporters of the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, or those who want Sanae Takaichi (64) to become Prime Minister. They talk about the will of the people, but in the end, this is just a political struggle for power recovery by the former Abe faction,” said a TV news department official.

Recently gaining more media exposure is Yasutaka Nakasone, LDP Youth Bureau Chief (43).

On July 25, Nakasone met with Secretary-General Hiroshi Moriyama (80) and submitted a written request demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Ishiba and the party executive committee, taking responsibility for the Upper House election defeat. Nakasone stated:

“I asked that they take responsibility as soon as possible. I have a sense of crisis that if the LDP ends, the country ends.”

Nakasone is a political scion: his father, Hirofumi Nakasone, served as Foreign Minister and LDP Upper House Chairman, and his grandfather, Yasuhiro Nakasone, was a former Prime Minister and holder of the prestigious “Grand Cordon” honor. At 43, he is still young, and his boyish good looks rival those of Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi (44) and “Kobahawk” Takayuki Kobayashi (50). However, he also has blemishes: he resigned as deputy youth bureau chief after attending a scandalous social gathering in November 2023, making him a somewhat controversial figure, according to a national newspaper political reporter.

Prime Minister Ishiba reaffirmed his intention to stay at a parliamentary social gathering on July 28. Secretary-General Moriyama hinted he might resign following the post-election review in late August.

“Someone has to take responsibility for the defeat. If Ishiba won’t step down, it will be Moriyama. But if he leaves, the regime’s lame-duck status will deepen further. Many believe that after the statement on the 80th anniversary of the end of the war on August 15, Moriyama might announce his resignation alongside Ishiba,” said the same national newspaper reporter.

Meanwhile, even if the former Abe faction manages to topple Ishiba, whether the LDP will revive remains uncertain.

For example, if Sanae Takaichi—who often ranks as one of the top contenders for the next prime minister in some media—is chosen as the LDP leader, there is a possibility that the opposition parties might unite during the subsequent prime ministerial election.

“A key factor here is the recent ‘Don’t Let Ishiba Resign’ protests. The participants are not LDP supporters but largely liberals. Their concern is Japan’s shift to the right if Takaichi becomes prime minister. Those protests are more of a message to the opposition parties than to the LDP. Usually, the opposition parties are divided, but they could come together if Takaichi becomes LDP leader,” said a Nagatacho insider.

If that happens, what is usually a mere formality in the prime ministerial election could turn into a fierce battle between the ruling and opposition parties. Should the opposition’s unified candidate win, it would mean a change of government, with the LDP stepping down for the first time in about 13 years.

If we consider a prime minister suitable for a minority ruling party

A Nagatacho insider said,

“Senior LDP members who want to avoid losing power are deeply worried about the ‘Takaichi risk.’ Some are even saying it might be better to keep Prime Minister Ishiba.”

In fact, it’s said that Prime Minister Ishiba himself is meticulously analyzing such scenarios.

His declaration to stay in office is not simply about clinging to power but because he judges that he can get through this. Political commentator Harumi Arima, who invites Ishiba to his study sessions, said,

“I hear from those around him that Ishiba strongly believes ‘If I step down, the LDP will become even worse.’ Since the ruling coalition is a minority in both houses, he likely thinks there is no one else but himself who can manage the government.”

Prime Minister Ishiba has suffered three consecutive defeats for the LDP in last year’s general election, the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election, and the Upper House election. If this leads to a no-confidence motion and a general election, the LDP could be devastated.

“There are rumors that a snap election might come soon, but given the state of the opposition parties, it seems difficult. While the opposition could expand their influence on the momentum of the Upper House election, parties like the Constitutional Democratic Party and the Sanseito Party that gained seats find it difficult to field candidates. Since the House of Representatives election uses a single-member district system with 289 constituencies, they would need to gather a considerable number of suitable candidates. Whether they can assemble them within a few months is doubtful, so I don’t think the opposition will submit a no-confidence motion,” said Arima.

Recent polls have begun to show an increase in support for Prime Minister Ishiba. There are also many voices in the business community praising Ishiba’s diplomacy, which managed to settle tariff negotiations with the Trump administration at 15%.

Meanwhile, the LDP’s internal power struggle is heating up, largely ignoring the public. The longer it drags on, the more it will create a political vacuum. Perhaps stepping down might be better for the country after all—