Shigeru Ishiba Faces Pressure After Three Election Defeats, Considers Last Measures to Retain Premiership

Despite being urged to resign by three former prime ministers, led by Taro Aso

“I never said I would resign.”

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba (68) was furious at Yomiuri Shimbun’s extra edition on July 23 titled “Prime Minister Ishiba to Resign” and vented his frustration to those around him.

On the same day, he held a 1 hour and 20-minute meeting in the Liberal Democratic Party headquarters’ 4th-floor office with former prime ministers and party leaders: Senior Advisor Taro Aso (84), Vice President Yoshihide Suga (76), and former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (67).

At the start, Secretary-General Hiroshi Moriyama (80) mentioned the upcoming bicameral members’ meeting to review the House of Councillors election results. Among the three former prime ministers silently listening, Aso pressed:

“The LDP under Ishiba cannot fight elections. Appropriate action must be taken.” Then Kishida added, “If you spend too much time analyzing the election, it will cause divisions within the party.” Aso nodded and implied, “I agree,” subtly urging Ishiba to resign.

Ishiba avoided commenting on his own resignation, saying, “We must first analyze the causes of our House of Councillors defeat” and “Only a basic agreement on the US-Japan trade negotiations has been reached.” The bicameral members’ meeting was scheduled five days later, and they had to refrain from getting any resignation commitment from Ishiba beforehand. He repeatedly emphasized avoiding party division. Fully aware that he was being indirectly pressured to resign, Ishiba sidestepped the push. The tense meeting concluded without resolution.

Immediately after the meeting, when reporters asked Ishiba about Yomiuri Shimbun and Mainichi Shimbun’s reports of his resignation, he denied, saying, “I have never made such a statement.”

However, Yomiuri Shimbun repeated “Prime Minister Ishiba to Resign” in the evening edition on the same day and in the morning edition on the 24th. Angered, the Prime Minister’s Office banned Yomiuri reporters from attending off-record meetings.

Following the last year’s House of Representatives election, the June Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election, and the House of Councillors election, the LDP suffered three consecutive defeats. Regarding Ishiba’s decision to remain as party leader, 12 local party branches—including the LDP Youth Bureau, Tochigi Prefecture Federation, and Fukuoka Prefecture Federation—voiced opposition. After last year’s House of Representatives defeat, some former Abe faction members, including Upper House Members Shoji Nishida (66) and Shigeharu Aoyama (73), also objected, though it did not become a major wave.

This time, the LDP suffered a severe loss in the House of Councillors election, becoming a minority party in both houses, making parliamentary management more difficult. Mid-level and younger LDP lawmakers openly called for “Ishiba removal” in front of cameras, making a full leadership overhaul inevitable.

Ishiba is expected to make a final decision on his political future in August. Even though the US-Japan trade negotiations agreed on mutual tariffs and automobile tariffs at 15%, domestic measures remain undecided. Without negotiating with opposition parties in parliament, he cannot pass even a single bill, let alone the budget. Voices are emerging that the Ishiba administration should formulate the FY2025 supplementary budget.

About 500 people gathered in front of the Prime Minister’s Official Residence and held a demonstration shouting, “Hang in there, Ishiba!”

Outside the LDP, there is also a tailwind supporting Ishiba’s continuation. After the Japan–U.S. trade negotiations reached a 15% tariff agreement, the hashtag #Don’tMakeIshibaResign rapidly spread on social media. On the evening of the 25th, despite lingering daytime heat, about 500 people gathered in front of the Prime Minister’s Official Residence.

“Don’t resign, Ishiba!”
“Hold on, Ishiba!”

As the demonstrators led the chants, the gathered crowd joined in. A 60-year-old female office worker from Machida smiled and said, “I never imagined there would be a demonstration just to cheer someone on.”

She added, “The LDP is disgraceful with all its infighting. Political and financial scandals are left unresolved. The ones who should resign are the politicians hiding illicit funds, not Ishiba. I want politics run by the old guard to end.”

A male office worker in his 60s from Saitama said, “Now is not the time to resign. If he resigns now, the Moritomo Gakuen issue will remain in the shadows. I hope he fulfills his duties.”

Taro Yamamoto, leader of the Reiwa Shinsengumi (50), also offered support at a press conference on the 21st, saying in his unique phrasing, “Economically, it’s not ideal, but keeping Ishiba for a while is a safe choice.” Lasalle Ishii (69), who was first elected to the House of Councillors, mentioned the spread of the hashtag #Don’tMakeIshibaResign and wrote on X that “He is the most reasonable of recent LDP prime ministers.”

Different dynamics are happening inside and outside the LDP. A member of the former Abe faction in the House of Councillors said while crossing his arms, “In hindsight, even the three former prime ministers could not put a leash on Prime Minister Ishiba. After the House of Representatives election, there’s a prime ministerial designation vote in the Diet, but after the House of Councillors election, there is none, so technically he can continue.”

He continued, “The anti-Ishiba faction is exploring the convening of joint meetings of both houses or recall rules to hold a leadership election mid-term, but these are internal LDP procedures. They affect the party leadership but do not directly affect the prime minister. The official residence is also considering all sorts of ways to support his continuation if the prime minister and party president are separated.”

Ishiba reportedly maintains a defiant stance, saying, “Unless I say I’m resigning, no one can make me step down.” A joint meeting of both houses of parliament is scheduled for the afternoon of the 28th. At that time, will Ishiba speak about his own future? The LDP’s confusion, leaving the public on the sidelines, seems set to continue for a while.