Photo Document of the Upper House Election] Ishiba’s Government Collapses: “No Allies, Only Timing Remains”

The people’s decision was “change.

The 27th House of Councillors election was held on July 20, and Prime Minister Ishiba had lost the Lower House election last October and the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election this June. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba (68), who had been driven to the brink of defeat, suffered another crushing defeat. The LDP lost 39 seats from the 52 seats up for election, and Komeito lost 8 seats from 14, leaving the ruling parties with a combined total of only 47 seats.

Prime Minister Ishiba had set a goal of winning 50 seats, which would give the LDP and Kōmeitō an absolute majority, including the seats not up for re-election. Prime Minister Ishiba’s target was to win 50 seats, which would give him a majority of seats in the lower house and the upper house, but he failed to achieve even that target, which was too low by 16 seats. Following the House of Representatives, the Liberal Democratic Party became the minority ruling party in the House of Councillors as well.

Click here for the first part: “After the Upper House Election Festival: The Clearly Divided Lines of Democracy” [Photo Document]”.

The Surprising Candidate for the Post-Ishiba Election

The Sangen-joken party was the eye of the storm in this year’s Upper House election. The party’s number of seats increased rapidly from one before the election to 14. The call of Sohei Kamiya, 47, the representative of the party, “Ichi, Ni, Sangseito! has become a common phrase in the party’s rallying cry. However, its political power is unknown. Political journalist Koichi Kakutani sounds a warning.

Koichi Kakutani, a political journalist, sounded the alarm: “Although the party has won seats in the Diet, it has not been able to dispel its dangerousness, such as Saya’s comment that nuclear armament is the cheapest way to strengthen security. Reaching out his tentacles under the surface to such a sangen party is Kōichi Hagiuda, 61, former policy chief of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan. Representative Kamiya’s conservative ideology has something in common with the former Abe faction, of which Hagiuda was a senior member. In light of the fluid political situation, he is probably planning to create a pipeline. Representative Kamiya also seems to be not fully satisfied. It will be interesting to see how he will behave in the future.

The biggest focus at the moment is on the fate of Prime Minister Ishiba, who is now in a critical condition. On the afternoon of November 21, after the vote count was over, Prime Minister Ishiba held a press conference and quickly announced that he would continue to run for prime minister.

He claimed, with mysterious logic, that “we cannot afford to create a political vacuum” in the face of looming “national crises,” such as the Trump tariffs and earthquakes, but no one took his words at face value.

In fact, there is significant opposition not only from the opposition parties but also from within the party itself. A number of LDP prefectural federations, including those in Aomori and Ehime prefectures, have demanded that Ishiba step down one after another, and LDP Supreme Advisor Taro Aso (84), the kingmaker of the party, has quickly stated that he will not allow Ishiba to continue as prime minister.

Within the party, the battle over the post of Ishiba has already begun. Agriculture Minister Koizumi Shinjiro (44) and Takaichi Sanae (64) are the leading candidates. This is because the only way for the LDP to survive is to hold a general election as soon as possible after the election of a new LDP president, while there is still a sense of anticipation. The LDP will have no choice but to nominate one of the two well-known candidates,” said Azumi.

On July 23, Prime Minister Ishiba held an emergency meeting with Supreme Advisor Aso, LDP Vice President Suga Yoshihide (76), and former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (67). Prime Minister Ishiba said that they “shared a strong sense of crisis” about the content of the meeting, and he flatly denied the reports of his resignation that were flying around, saying, “There has been no discussion of my departure or departure from the party.

However, the X-Day is approaching.

He has already decided to step down, and the only thing left is the timing. He is expected to announce his resignation at the end of the Obon holiday season, but the lowering of the Trump tariffs, which had been a matter of concern, is on the horizon, and there is a possibility that the announcement will be made sooner than expected.
Mr. Aso is still at the center of the Ishiba ouster. In addition to former Secretary General Toshimitsu Mogi (69), with whom he has close ties, Mr. Hagiuda and other members of the former Abe faction are working to bring them into the fold. Furthermore, former Prime Minister Kishida is also said to be showing signs of interest. There are no longer any allies of Prime Minister Ishiba within the party. He will probably just use the reduction of Trump’s tariffs as an incentive to make the timing look like a “courageous retirement.

The “three-out change” decision made by the voters is that serious.

From the August 8-15, 2025 issue of FRIDAY