Shinji Ishimaru’s Upper House Bid Falters — Vote Share Could Fall Below NHK Party

A new political party called “Sangi-to” (Sanseitō), which advocates a “Japanese First” policy, is rapidly gaining momentum

The Upper House election (officially kicking off on July 3, with voting on July 20) is finally underway.

The key point of interest is whether the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito can retain their 50 pre-election seats.

If they fall short of 50 seats, the ruling parties would lose their majority, forcing them into even tougher negotiations in the National Diet. Pre-election forecasts already suggest a difficult road ahead, with some sources predicting the coalition may indeed lose its majority. A political correspondent from a national newspaper comments:

“Looking at the results of the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election on June 22, Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi’s initiatives to stabilize rice prices were short-lived. In fact, his criticism of wholesale distributors has drawn backlash. Prime Minister Ishiba’s plan to give ¥20,000 to each citizen has also failed to win favor. Even senior LDP figure Hiroshi Moriyama’s opposition to a consumption tax cut — insisting on ‘protecting the consumption tax’ — was poorly received.”

Poised to rise in place of the ruling coalition are Yuichiro Tamaki’s Democratic Party for the People and the Sanseitō.

The latter won three seats in the Tokyo assembly election and is now emerging as a dark horse in the Upper House race. Major media outlets failed to predict Sanseitō’s surge, resulting in considerable embarrassment. The same newspaper correspondent says:

“We held a debriefing after the Tokyo election. Everyone admitted, ‘We didn’t see it coming at all,’ scratching their heads in disbelief.”

While Sanseitō’s “Japanese First” platform has sparked both support and criticism, there’s no denying the party’s growing momentum.

On the other hand, all 42 candidates from Shinji Ishimaru’s (42) new party “Path of Renewal” lost in the Tokyo race.

For the Upper House election, the party is fielding 10 candidates. Of these, only Aya Yoshida is running in a constituency (Tokyo), with the remaining nine running in the proportional representation race.

Existing parties like the Liberal Democratic Party and the Constitutional Democratic Party are struggling to gain traction

On July 1, party leader Shinji Ishimaru held a press conference in Tokyo where he stated the party’s goal for the Upper House election:

“To meet the requirements for becoming a national political party.”

Those requirements are: (1) having five or more sitting members in the National Diet, or (2) achieving at least 2% of the vote in the election.

Ishimaru is dedicating himself to supporting candidate Aya Yoshida, the party’s sole contender in a constituency race—specifically, Tokyo, the largest electoral district in terms of voter population. As such, the proportional representation vote will largely depend on Tokyo, and will directly reflect Ishimaru’s current influence.

Meanwhile, one party’s internal polling has revealed shocking figures.

In Japan’s 47 prefectures, excluding Tokyo, “Path of Renewal” is projected to earn only about 1% to 1.5% of the proportional vote—potentially even less than the NHK Party led by Takashi Tachibana.

Even in Tokyo, where expectations are highest, the projected vote share stands at only 3.5%. While they aim for at least 5%, current voter sentiment remains harsh. However, there’s another perspective:

“With the established parties like the LDP and CDP failing to gain momentum, there’s now a possibility that ‘Path of Renewal’ could secure at least one seat. Depending on how things unfold, they might even win multiple seats. But as with the Tokyo assembly election, where no one predicted the rise of the Sanseito party, it’s dangerous to place too much faith in pre-election polls. Since Ishimaru himself is front and center this time, there’s a real chance he could stir up another wave,” said a national newspaper reporter.

Yet, there are concerns. In the Tokyo assembly race, Aya Toriumi, who ran in Setagaya Ward, left the party after the election. On social media platform X, she wrote:

“I was mentally affected by bashing from some of Mr. Ishimaru’s fans.”

She revealed she was subjected to online abuse by a segment of Ishimaru supporters, drawing public attention.

“While ‘Path of Renewal’ has a passionate support base—which is encouraging—it also raises concerns about potential conflicts with other parties. Whether the campaign staff can keep things in line will be crucial. I wonder if Ishimaru’s team has experienced political strategists who can manage that,” commented a TV station reporter.

According to political commentator Harumi Arima:

“If the party can get one or two people elected through proportional representation, it will establish a presence for Ishimaru’s new party. During the Tokyo governor race, enthusiastic fans came from all over Japan to support him. As he moves up the political ladder, those supporters are likely to continue backing him. This could provide strong momentum for the Tokyo gubernatorial election three years from now, which Ishimaru is rumored to be eyeing.”

At the recent press conference, Ishimaru toned down his confrontational stance against the media and engaged in friendly exchanges with reporters. With this character shift, could he once again stir up the kind of political wind seen in the Tokyo governor race?