A Big Defeat for Yuriko Koike? Why Ishimaru’s new party is expected to win no seats in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly elections and why people are wondering if they are serious about winning.

Koike Criticized for Rafting in “Free Basic Water Supply Charges

Yuriko!”

On June 14, a man who appeared to be a Komeito supporter shouted in front of a home improvement center in Toyosu, Tokyo, in the rain,

Yuriko!

Yuriko,” he responded with a big smile on his face.

Koike was at a total of 12 locations on March 13 and 14 to support the candidates of the New Komeito party, which has supported Koike’s administration. Under an umbrella held by an SP in the light rain, Koike said, “I have been working on the waterworks for four months this summer.

We have waived the basic water rates for four months this summer. There is a danger of heat stroke even in the house. Please use the money you save to turn on the air conditioner to protect yourself from the heat. The waterworks bureau is a metropolitan facility, so the metropolitan government can do this right away.”

The free basic waterworks fee was approved on the last day of the fiscal 2013 supplementary budget. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Tomin First Association (TMF), and New Komeito, all of which support Governor Koike, requested that the basic waterworks fee be made free of charge. The Tokyo Metropolitan Government responded to their request. This is the first time a local government has waived the fee.

The Ishiba administration, which is preparing for the Upper House election in July, is also considering cash transfers of 20,000 yen to citizens and 40,000 yen to children, which has been criticized as a ‘handout for the Upper House election. The free water service fee is a temporary measure only for this summer.

Also, the governor likes to use phrases such as ‘the first in Japan’ and ‘ahead of other municipalities,’ and he seems to be satisfied that he was able to come up with a policy to win over the independent voters.

The Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly elections (127 seats) will be held on June 13 and June 22. Although this is one of the local elections, it is said that “half of the 11 million voters are independents” and has been heavily influenced by national politics. In the past four elections, the first party in the assembly has changed like the eye of a cat, from the DPJ, to the LDP, to the TMMF, to the LDP.

In the ’09 Tokyo metropolitan assembly election, the then DPJ won a landslide 54-seat victory, and it was the precursor to the August election for the House of Representatives in the same year that handed over the reins of power to the Taro Aso administration.

Shinjiro Koizumi’s Skills Prevented the New Ishimaru Party from Making a Breakthrough

In ’13, the LDP won 59 seats under the second Shinzo Abe administration by a wide margin. In ’17, Governor Koike created a whirlwind, and the Metropolitan Fa won a landslide victory with 55 seats.’ In 2009, the LDP surged to 33 seats. The LDP had been hostile to Governor Koike, but from ’22 to ’23 the LDP turned to a policy of reconciliation following the deaths of a number of heavyweights who had been in control of the LDP’s Tokyo Metropolitan Federation. In the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly, the LDP (30), the TMGFA (26), and Komeito (23) have formed a coalition to manage the assembly in a multi-party political manner, ahead of the national government.

In the current Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election, the National Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), which is seeking to win seats in the assembly, and the regional party “Rebuilding Path” led by Shinji Ishimaru, 42, former mayor of Aki Takata City, also participated.

The LDP’s LDP in the Tokyo metropolitan assembly also uncovered the LDP’s money laundering problem, which had been going on for more than a year, and six former secretaries general who were involved in making slush funds at political fund parties were not authorized to run. The LDP suffered a crushing defeat, and the question was whether the KDP or Ishimaru’s new party would fill the void.

However, when Koizumi Shinjiro (44) was selected as the new Minister of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries, he played the same theatrical politics as his father, making daily inspection tours of stockpiled rice under the guise of “measures to prevent rice price hikes,” and hijacking the media. The public’s attention shifted to rice prices and high commodity prices, and the issue of slush funds was covered up.

Meanwhile, the opposition parties have lost some of their momentum. The KDPJ lost support due to the controversy surrounding the candidacy of former House of Representatives member Shizuri Yamao (50) and Yuichiro Tamaki’s (56) “animal feed” comment about the stockpiled rice.

Ishimaru, who came in second to Koike in last year’s gubernatorial election, held joint town hall speeches with the other candidates, but he has lost the momentum he had last year, when he filled station fronts with people.

Ishimaru’s new party predicts zero seats…some wonder if they are serious about winning

From what I have seen and heard, the candidates for the Path of Renewal appear to be a small camp, including himself and his family members. Their understanding of the policies and issues of the Tokyo metropolitan government is limited, and their speeches are not very good. They are happy when Representative Ishimaru praises them, saying that their voices have become clearer and their speeches better, and it does not appear that they are serious about winning.

If they had united their candidates, they would still have a chance, but in some areas, such as Suginami Ward, they have fielded three candidates from the path of renewal despite the six-member constituency. 42 candidates are running in 35 electoral districts, so the votes will be split and a number of candidates will fall together.

Although the truth is not known for certain, there is a survey that appears in Nagata-cho before the election. This time, the “Kyodo (Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly Election 2025 Situation Survey List)” and the “Bunshun Prediction List” are circulating, and both list “zero seats” as the path to revival.

The Kyodo News survey (14th-15th) shows “LDP: 16%, Rikken/Communist Party: 11%, TMGF: 10%, KMT: 6%, Komeito: 5%, and Rebirth: 3%.

From the governor’s point of view, the ideal would be for TMGFA to return to the number one party, but at the very least, the Constitutional Democratic Party and the Communist Party, which are opposed in the assembly, should not make a leap forward. The Rikken and the Communist parties have been fighting well in constituencies with a quorum of three or less, but the Communists are expected to maintain the status quo, while the Rikken is expected to gain only a small number of seats.

The KDP, which is aiming to win seats for the first time, is expected to gain about five seats, according to various news organizations.

Even if the KDP makes a breakthrough, Tamaki and Governor Koike were mentors and disciples when they were members of the Party of Hope, and they are always in contact with each other. The KDP and the TMG are also in a cooperative relationship at the party level, and the TMG supported the KDP in the last lower house election in which the KDP made a great leap forward.

There is a saying in the political world, “What you owe an election is repaid in an election. The KDP’s candidates were selected in consideration of the TMGFA, such as having a quorum of three or more and having a member of the Diet in their home district. Considering these factors, after the KDP wins the seats, the governor will likely join the ruling party.

At present, Koike is enjoying a strong tailwind. However, it is common knowledge in the political world that the direction of the wind can change in an instant. According to a Kyodo News survey, 17% of respondents “have not yet decided” whom they will vote for, surpassing the LDP. Who will win in the subtropical heat of Tokyo, the Liberal Democratic Party or the Tokyo Metropolitan Party, or perhaps…?