“When in Doubt, Call Shinjiro” — Limits of the Ishiba Administration as Rising Koizumi Draws LDP Concern Over U.S. Trade Issues

Due to his achievements in the rice issue, he is being positioned as a poster figure for the House of Councilors election

The soaring price of rice is beginning to have a significant impact on the political landscape.

In the latest public opinion polls, support for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has surged across the board. Both NHK and ANN reported a substantial rise of over six percentage points compared to the previous month. This boost appears to reflect public approval—over 70%—of newly appointed Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Shinjiro Koizumi’s (44) decision to release government stockpiles of rice through discretionary contracts shortly after taking office. As such, the LDP’s strategy seems to be working in their favor ahead of the upcoming House of Councillors election.

However, within the party itself, opinions are sharply divided. A mid-ranking LDP lawmaker commented:

“Minister Koizumi’s swift response is certainly commendable. But whether it addresses the deeper issues behind the LDP’s declining popularity is doubtful. While the leadership’s gamble on Koizumi’s popularity paid off, it also exposed the administration’s shallow reliance on a minister who isn’t known for policy expertise.”

A veteran LDP secretary was more critical of the party’s approach:

“People often mock him with terms like ‘Koizumi-isms,’ but the fact is, whenever there’s trouble, the LDP turns to Shinjiro. With the election looming, the focus isn’t on substance, but on how things will be portrayed by the media. While Minister Koizumi may be turned into the party’s poster boy this summer, it’s troubling that the party seems to have no choice but to lean on his popularity.”

The divided opinions aren’t limited to within the party. Some, like officials from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, speak highly of Minister Koizumi’s attitude:

“Many staff appreciate how quickly he grasps key points during briefings, and how readily he asks questions when he doesn’t understand something. That openness contrasts with many lawmakers who, driven by pride and half-baked knowledge, refuse to listen.”

Overall, while Koizumi’s bold actions have won him points with the public, they also highlight deeper structural weaknesses in the ruling party’s reliance on image over policy.

Farmers continue to struggle in poverty

On the other hand, a bureaucrat from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism offered a harsh assessment: “Minister Koizumi lacks a macro-level perspective.”

“Whether it’s the release of stockpiled rice or ride-share deregulation, Koizumi seems to want to portray himself as a reformer. During the ride-share debate, he did listen to the opposition from our ministry. However, while he does respond promptly to urgent issues, it’s hard to see him thinking in terms of decades ahead. Even with the rice issue—just lowering prices may ease consumer burden, but it drives farmers into financial distress. There’s no sign that he’s considering that broader consequence.”

How are the farmers—the ones directly affected—perceiving the issue and its response? One farmer in Hyogo Prefecture lamented:

“We’re barely making ends meet.”

“Fertilizer and equipment prices have skyrocketed. The media stirs up panic about rice prices, but if you think about it calmly, rice has been cheap for the last 10 years—it’s only now returning to a fair price. With inflation affecting the entire country, it feels off that only rice is being singled out.

We farmers often go into debt to keep producing high-quality rice. But what are we supposed to do? Minister Koizumi, by calling for the release of stockpiled rice and price reductions, and the media reporting it, both seem to be missing the producers’ perspective.”

Now caught in the middle of competing interests, how will Minister Koizumi lead this complex issue toward resolution?