Ishiba’s Past Remarks Resurface Online as Cash Handouts Enter Election Strategy — All Eyes on Upper House Vote

An extreme interpretation that says, “Even if elected, there’s no need to keep campaign promises.”

“The policies I presented do not necessarily have to be carried out just because I was elected.”

It was on December 5th of last year, during a session of the National Diet’s Budget Committee, when Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba (68) made this shocking statement. Now, with the Upper House election vote drawing near in July, this remark is being brought back up and widely circulated on social media with comments like:

“Surely no one’s forgotten this, right?”

On June 9th, the Liberal Democratic Party announced plans to include a cash handout of several tens of thousands of yen per citizen as part of their Upper House election pledges to address rising prices. The plan is to use about 3 trillion yen from surplus tax revenue as the financial source.

In addition, Prime Minister Ishiba has set a target in the Upper House election pledges to raise Japan’s nominal GDP to 1,000 trillion yen by 2040. He also reportedly demanded the inclusion of a goal to increase average personal income by more than 50%.

But as Ishiba’s past remark resurfaced, criticism has emerged saying, “Who would believe such pledges now?”

For reference, here’s Ishiba’s statement in full without being selectively quoted:

“I have been elected. That does not mean the policies I presented must now be carried out as-is.”

When he said this, there were cries of “What?!” from opposition parties in the chamber. To which Ishiba responded:

“No — it’s actually problematic to respond with ‘What?!’. Our party has never adopted the approach of, ‘We’ve been elected, so everything we promised will absolutely be done.’ I have never thought, ‘Since I was elected, I will implement everything I said during the campaign.’”

In other words, he was explaining that each elected member’s pledges would be discussed and considered within the party before being acted on.

Nevertheless, parts of this were cut out and circulated online under the extreme interpretation that Ishiba had declared, “Even if elected, there’s no need to keep campaign promises.” That said — unless politicians work with all their effort on the pledges they present, voters are bound to see them as nothing more than election tactics.

Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Secretary-General Hiroshi Moriyama stated at a party meeting in Tokushima City on June 8:

“We currently have no new financial resources. Any reduction in the consumption tax should be approached with the utmost caution.”

Although there had been voices within the LDP calling for a consumption tax cut, those discussions ultimately dissipated without materializing. Yet, the move to distribute surplus tax revenues to the public seems somewhat contradictory.

Tax revenue has hit record highs for five consecutive years. However, it appears there’s no intention to reduce the consumption tax until that surplus is fully exhausted.

Even so, the LDP’s approval rating has slightly recovered.

“Rice Minister Shinjiro Koizumi’s stockpiled rice strategy proved effective, lowering rice prices at supermarkets somewhat. This seems to have helped, as recent newspaper polls show a slight uptick in support.

But online, people are growing increasingly critical, pointing out that under the Ishiba administration there have been repeated moves to reduce take-home income, like significant cuts to some survivor’s pensions and the creation of a so-called singles tax disguised as a child and child-rearing support fund.

At the same time, there’s been backlash over things like providing around 10 million yen in financial support to Chinese international students. The battle of public opinion is clearly intensifying ahead of the election.”

Only the Liberal Democratic Party says, “We will not lower the consumption tax.”

However, the decline of the opposition parties has also become a topic of discussion. The leading contender, the Democratic Party for the People, saw its approval ratings drop dramatically after fielding Shiomura Shiori, whose affair and use of political funds came under scrutiny.

“Amazingly, despite the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) struggling, neither the Constitutional Democratic Party nor Ishin are able to capitalize on the opportunity. In the end, if more young people avoid voting, the votes won’t be split, and the LDP — which has solid organizational support — will have a high chance of winning by default,” said a TV station political reporter.

The LDP, whose approval ratings recovered slightly due to rice-related measures, and the lackluster opposition parties — what do experts make of the upcoming July Upper House election? According to political commentator Harumi Arima:

“The LDP’s sudden move to announce cash handouts isn’t for the people, it’s for its own Upper House candidates facing reelection and the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election. While Minister Koizumi’s rice policy slightly improved the party’s approval ratings, it barely resonated with Tokyo voters. What’s more, every other opposition party is pledging to cut the consumption tax, and the only one refusing to do so is the LDP. That leaves them no choice but to rely on cash handouts to appeal to the public. But since voters see this plainly as an election tactic, its effectiveness is questionable.”

In the House of Representatives, the ruling coalition has already lost its majority. While the opposition aims to push the ruling parties below a majority in the Upper House as well:

“The Constitutional Democratic Party is floundering with half-measures like only cutting the consumption tax on food items, basically turning into a small LDP and failing to gain traction. The Democratic Party for the People, too, has lost momentum over candidate issues like Shiomura Shiori and party leader Yuichiro Tamaki’s controversial feed rice remark. Initially, both of their candidates in the Tokyo Upper House district were expected to win, but now there’s a possibility both might lose. Currently, the ruling coalition holds 16 more seats than the opposition in the Upper House. They might lose five to eight seats, but it’s still expected they’ll manage to retain a majority. Even if some opposition parties gain seats, unless they can force a ruling party defeat as in the House of Representatives, it won’t count as a true opposition victory,” says Arima.

Will the ruling coalition fall below a majority in the Upper House election — or not? In any case, it’s crucial that voters go to the polls and make their voices heard.