Despite Big Win Over Indonesia, Moriyasu’s Japan Faces Major Hurdles on the Road to 2026 World Cup

The regular lineup features the same faces as three years ago

Having secured their place at the 2026 North and Central America World Cup faster than any other nation, Japan’s national team has now entered a new phase in preparation for the tournament one year away.

In the June window of Asia’s final qualifying round, key regulars like Kaoru Mitoma (28, Brighton) and Ritsu Doan (26, Freiburg) were rested, with a younger squad featuring the likes of Yu Hirakawa (24, Bristol City) and Joruchima Fujita (23, Sint-Truiden) taking the field. However, on June 5th, Japan suffered a shocking 0–1 defeat to Australia — their first loss of the final qualifying stage. Though they bounced back with a 6–0 win over Indonesia on the 10th, the disparity in strength meant it was no cause for unrest. Head coach Hajime Moriyasu (56) admitted after the match:

“We’re still not at the level where we can consistently beat the world’s top sides after these battles in Asia.”

It’s clear he feels the tough road ahead.

As many know, Moriyasu has overseen a long-term regime since July 2018, and this final qualifying round squad was made up of more than two-thirds of the members from the 2022 Qatar World Cup — including Wataru Endo (32, Liverpool), Takumi Minamino (30, Monaco), and Kaoru Mitoma. At the last World Cup, the youngest player was Takefusa Kubo, then 21 (now 24, Real Sociedad). Three years later, Kubo remains the youngest outfield regular. The only player younger than him to firmly establish himself is goalkeeper Zion Suzuki (22, Parma). In other words, the integration of younger talent has lagged behind.

Moriyasu is acutely aware of this. That’s why he deliberately selected younger players like 18-year-old Ryunosuke Sato (Fagiano Okayama) for this round. However, Sato wasn’t even on the bench for the Australia match, and while he came on in the 69th minute against Indonesia, he didn’t make a decisive impression capable of threatening the incumbents.

A few players did leave positive impressions in the second game, but ultimately, the crucial early goals in the first half came from established stars Daichi Kamada (28, Crystal Palace) and Takefusa Kubo. Their importance to the squad remains overwhelming, and the hurdle for new faces to break into the core lineup appears as high as ever.

Two failures caused by a fixed starting lineup

If we look only at the clubs the national team members belong to, it’s true that few would dispute the evaluation that this is the strongest team ever. However, whether there is any guarantee they will achieve their long-cherished goal of reaching the World Cup quarterfinals remains doubtful. One major reason is the slow progress in overall team improvement as described earlier.

This situation recalls the bitter experiences of the 2006 Germany and 2014 Brazil World Cups. In 2006, players like Junichi Inamoto (now Kawasaki youth coach), Shinji Ono (J-League special director), and Tsuneyasu Miyamoto (JFA chairman)—who were core members of Philippe Troussier’s Japan squad that reached the Round of 16 for the first time ever in the 2002 Korea-Japan World Cup—were expected to mature and bring great results. However, when coach Zico took over from Troussier, he relied heavily on these specific players, failing to develop the team further, which led to Japan being crushed by world powerhouses such as Brazil.

Similarly, in 2014, coach Alberto Zaccheroni heavily relied on stars who rose to prominence at the 2010 South Africa World Cup—Keisuke Honda, Yuto Nagatomo (now FC Tokyo), and Makoto Hasebe (current Japan assistant coach). The team was marked by fixed lineups and struggled to evolve, ultimately failing to win a single match and being eliminated. When the core lineup remains unchanged, the team cannot revitalize itself, and opponents thoroughly analyze and prepare countermeasures. There is no guarantee that Moriyasu’s Japan will avoid this fate at next year’s World Cup—it is a very concerning possibility.

Additionally, many of the key players whom coach Moriyasu trusts absolutely are expected to move to different clubs during this summer’s transfer market. This is another cause for concern. Reports say Kaoru Mitoma may transfer to Bayern Munich, and Ritsu Doan is linked with Frankfurt or Dortmund. One of the defensive pillars, Ko Itakura (28, Borussia Mönchengladbach), is almost certain to move to a new club, while Junya Ito (32), whose team was relegated from France’s top division, also has an uncertain future. If any of these players lose their playing time at new clubs, what will happen? It could disrupt the very foundation of Moriyasu’s team-building plans.

One more point to add: key defenders Takehiro Tomiyasu (26, Arsenal) and Hiroki Ito (26, Bayern) are currently sidelined with long-term injuries, with no clear return date in sight. Tomiyasu, in particular, has not played for about a year and has been battling a prolonged injury. With increasing injuries among the defensive players, worries continue to mount.

The coach often says his goal is to build a team that can win no matter who plays, but at present, such an overwhelmingly deep squad has not been built. Amid various uncertainties, the question remains: how will the team steadily improve from here on out? Heading into the big stage one year from now, there are certainly many worrisome points.

Only eight friendly matches remain before the World Cup tournament

Even if the current core members play regularly at their clubs and come into the 2026 World Cup in good condition, there is no guarantee that Japan will win. This is because of a deep-rooted issue, as seen in the recent match against Australia, where Japan struggled to break down a well-organized defensive team.

In the final qualifying round, Japan showed a powerful attack with 30 goals in 10 matches, seemingly resolving their long-standing problem of lack of scoring ability. However, when facing a team like Australia that forms a solid five-back defensive block, Japan suddenly lacks effective attacking options. In the June 5 match, Japan controlled nearly 70% of the ball but struggled to create chances and failed to score, ultimately conceding a winning goal late due to a single mistake. Coach Moriyasu reflected on the match:

“There are many ways to think about how to break down the opponent’s defense. Including the Australia game, it’s clear that we lacked quality and power in front of goal. We need to strengthen our basic and individual tactics so we can force the ball into the net with more power.”

This scenario recalls the 2022 World Cup group stage second match against Costa Rica, where Japan failed to mount effective attacks and conceded a late goal after Maya Yoshida’s clearance was intercepted, losing 0–1. Breaking down a compact defense is a difficult challenge, but Japan must explore set pieces, counterattacks, and other strategies to find solutions, or risk harsh results.

Wataru Endo revealed part of the solution:

“We can focus on details such as how to deliver the final crosses and where to run. Soccer has scoring patterns, so awareness and preparation for these are important going into matches.”

This emphasis on details is widely shared by the players. Daichi Kamada, who wore the captain’s armband on June 5, said seriously:

“The higher the level you reach, the more important the final part becomes — quality of passes, finishing, and defending. When you compare us to the world’s best, the difference really is in those areas.”

Regarding forwards, Ayase Ueda (26, Feyenoord) and Koki Ogawa (27, NEC Nijmegen) performed well in qualifying. New talents like Shuto Machino (25, Kiel), who scored 11 goals in the German Bundesliga, and Daizen Maeda (27, Celtic), who has 33 official goals this season in Scotland, have emerged. Though overall levels have risen, there still isn’t a super goal-scorer capable of changing everything with individual skill.

In contrast, the midfield and wings are well stocked with players like Takumi Minamino, Takefusa Kubo, Kaoru Mitoma, and Ritsu Doan, who have scored double-digit goals for their clubs. But to aim for a World Cup quarterfinal finish, each player must make a further leap in their development. Kamada’s mention of “final quality” is something only a team of excellent players can achieve, so much depends on their growth.

Over the coming year, Japan will hold eight test matches, including a September trip to the U.S. (two matches against Mexico and the U.S.), to finalize the squad for the World Cup. It’s impossible to know who will be where a year from now, but ideally, young talents like Haruka Hirakawa and Yuito Suzuki (23, Freiburg), who made a decent impact in the June series and belong to the so-called “Kubo generation,” will push existing players with their presence.

The question remains: how close can Moriyasu’s vision of a team that can win with anyone on the field and against any opponent come to reality? Japan must steadily take steps forward toward the best-ever achievement of reaching the World Cup quarterfinals.