[Part 2] Russia vs. Ukraine: Trump, Putin, and Zelensky: “The Dropping Point of the Endless War”

A little over three years have passed since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. U.S. President Trump (78) initiated ceasefire mediation and the first direct negotiations in three years between the delegations of the two countries, but they have ended in a deadlock.

Is there a resolution to this war? What does Atsuko Higashino, a professor at Tsukuba University, and Yu Koizumi, an associate professor at the University of Tokyo, both experts on the situation in Russia and Ukraine, see in the future?

Part 1: Russia vs. Ukraine: Trump, Putin, and Zelensky, “The Dropping Point of the Endless War

Blue-Collar Workers Go to the Battlefield

Higashino: As for Ukraine, there are videos circulating of people being forcibly drafted out of the blue while walking down the street. Of course, not everyone is forcibly drafted. There are a certain number of people who have a life and refuse for reasons such as “I can’t leave my old mother on the battlefield. It is true that some people were forcibly drafted, but it is also true that Ukraine is on the side of the invaders and must resist even if it has to gather soldiers.

Koizumi In the case of Russia, you will first receive a “blank check” at home. It is a warrant to appear at the conscription office, but if you do not receive it and leave it unattended, you will only have to pay a fine as an administrative penalty. If you honestly go to the draft office, you will be given a ″red paper″. If you refuse to accept it, you are fleeing before the enemy. Therefore, it is a game of how to avoid receiving a “blank piece of paper.

Higashino: Is it possible to refuse to receive a “red slip”?

Koizumi: You don’t have to flee abroad or do anything outrageous. All you have to do is not stay at home. You can escape to your girlfriend’s house or hide out in a vacation home. However, there is a person in charge of mobilization at work who hands out “red papers. The position was only ″I’ll appoint you just in case″, but it’s the first time since World War II that I’ve had to come in. In short, the blue-collar workers in factories and other places cannot escape. This is connected to what you said earlier about only the rich elite being able to escape the war.

Higashino When I see that the military commission is not seriously drafting troops, I wonder if there is still room in Russia.

Koizumi No, we can’t say that, and we have recently created a system whereby ″red papers″ are sent to the social security service apps that Russians have in their cell phones. Even if you delete the app, you can’t escape because it is tied to your social security number. If we mobilize the entire nation, the country could be thrown into chaos. The reason they have not issued a general mobilization for the past three years is probably because they are afraid of chaos.

Higashino: Maybe that is why they are relying on Chinese mercenaries or the dispatch of North Korean troops. I think this situation will continue for some time to come.

Koizumi Public opinion polls show that the Ukrainian people’s awareness of resisting Russian aggression has not changed. However, there is no doubt that they are becoming exhausted.’ They are beginning to understand that it is difficult to regain the territory after the failure of the reversal offensive launched in 2011.

Higashino President Zelensky (47) has also emphasized since last fall that “some of the occupied territories will be recaptured through diplomatic negotiations after the ceasefire.

Koizumi However, Putin’s war aims to seize sovereignty and bring Ukraine under his control. If military resistance ceases, the entire country will be controlled. In April of this year, when the U.S. media reported a peace proposal in which the Trump administration would recognize Russia’s possession of the Crimean Peninsula, Zelensky immediately rejected it.

Higashino: At that time, Trump criticized Zelensky, saying, “You can choose peace, or you can keep fighting for three more years and lose your entire country,” but the basis for “three years” is unclear. ″It is possible that he is saying from right to left that someone has input into the story. The ″never-give-up″ Ukrainians will not be on board no matter what Trump says.

Koizumi After arguing with Trump at the February summit, Zelensky’s approval rating in Ukraine exploded, you know.

Higashino: That argument started with U.S. Vice President Vance (40). I feel that Trump and Vance need to be separated. Vance sees Europe as a taker and exploiter. The leaked “Signal” chats and other things show his attitude that he does not want to do anything that benefits Europe.
Trump, however, has not lost his own identity as a European immigrant. It was easy to understand when he went to the UK as a guest of honor during his first administration. He may be trying to enhance his own position, but he does not hide his admiration for authentic things, such as the royal family.

Koizumi The British Royal Family also invited Trump as a guest of honor in February of this year. It is unprecedented to invite the same person twice, even if it is because of a change of administration.

Higashino: That’s how desperate Europe as a whole is to please Trump. Ukraine’s military technology has advanced dramatically over the past three years. For example, Ukraine has accumulated the capability to attack Russia’s territory, including a home-made drone that can fly into Russian territory; it has investment plans for Ukraine, such as the EU’s European rearmament plan; and it has signed a separate 100-year partnership agreement with the UK. Still, it is tough to say whether we can continue to fight without U.S. support.

After Ukraine” Targets

Koizumi: Russia is trying to change the security order in Europe itself. Compared to the Soviet era, the strategic center of gravity has moved back 1,500 km. East and West Germany used to be the line of defense, but now Poland and the Baltic states have joined NATO and are right in front of St. Petersburg, the birthplace of Vladimir Putin. If I were Russia’s defense chief of staff, of course I would not like that. We must not let Russia think that by conquering Ukraine, “Europe can also be conquered.

Higashino: Under the Schuman Declaration of 1950, Germany and France agreed to jointly manage coal. This was an attempt to achieve peace by jointly managing a resource that had been the cause of war. Now, there is no momentum to prevent another war between Russia and Ukraine by jointly managing resources or working toward that end. We must use the card of cards to put pressure on Russia. The UK and France are the ones who can cut this card.

Koizumi The terrible thing is, as Dr. Higashino pointed out, that Ukraine has the ability to continue to resist with the military support of the EU and the financial support of Japan even after the US leaves.

Higashino: ″There are not a few opinions in Japan that this war will end if Zelensky compromises and gives up the four states and the Crimean peninsula that Putin wants to claim, but Putin’s ambitions are not territorial. ″It is better to consider what will happen if he comes to Europe with the attitude that any country that challenges Russia in the future will be silenced by force.

Koizumi: Ukraine must not be defeated. Japan cannot provide large-scale military assistance, but the economic and civilian assistance totaling nearly 2 trillion yen so far is admirable. The Ground Self-Defense Force’s material transport vehicles are also playing an active role. Anything that can be done should be done. We must not give in to Putin’s yakuza logic.

◆Higashino Atsuko ’71. Professor of Humanities and Sociology at the University of Tsukuba. Specializes in EU and Russian foreign policy and is vice president of the Ukraine Study Group. She has worked as an expert researcher at the Permanent Mission of Japan to the OECD, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and as a full-time lecturer at the University of Birmingham, UK before assuming her current position.

◆Yu Koizumi ’82. Associate Professor at the Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, the University of Tokyo. After working as an expert analyst at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and as a visiting researcher at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, she has been in her current position since 2011. Specializes in Russian security and military policy.

From the June 6-13, 2025 issue of FRIDAY