Koizumi Shinjiro is either a savior or a clown.

The “Minister in charge of rice” has quickly risen to second place on the list of candidates for the next president of Japan.

Can’t he stop smiling?

On May 28, Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, 44, stood before the House of Representatives Committee on Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries and was harshly questioned by the leaders of the opposition parties about his measures to deal with soaring rice prices, but in between he could not help but smile. Behind his relaxed demeanor is his pride as the “Minister in charge of rice.

According to a JNN poll released on June 1, the Cabinet’s approval rating rose to 34.6%. The “Shinjiro effect” has been the biggest factor in this increase,
I believe that Shinjiro himself is feeling a positive response to the fact that he has been able to distribute stockpiled rice without going through the JA.

In the second week of May, the average price of rice was 4,268 yen per 5 kg, the highest price ever recorded in Reiwa. The Japanese archipelago was in a panic for stockpiled rice at less than half the price. It is no longer unusual to see more than 1,000 people lining up early in the morning for a store to sell rice.

Support for Agriculture Minister Koizumi is growing. On May 26, the day before he began accepting voluntary contracts, a Kyodo News poll showed that he had risen sharply to second place as a candidate for the next president of the LDP. He was the top candidate among LDP supporters.

However, the stockpiling of rice does not necessarily mean that rice prices will fall. This is only a temporary event,” warned Masayuki Ogawa, an assistant professor at Utsunomiya University and an agricultural economist.

No matter how much stockpiled rice is released, the price of brand-name rice, which is familiar to consumers, will remain high. Based on past market prices, we expect prices to remain in the range of 4,200 to 6,500 yen. With no concrete measures in sight to utilize imported rice, for example, this high price range will continue at least until around the year ’28.

Considering that the demand for rice in the last fiscal year was 7.05 million tons, the total release of 610,000 tons of stockpiled rice up to July accounts for only about 8.6% of the total. Agriculture Minister Koizumi has said that he will consider releasing all of the stockpiled rice if there is demand, but it is difficult to lower the market price with stockpiled rice alone.

It’s all about the speech.”

Nevertheless, there is a sense of hope in the performance of Agriculture Minister Koizumi, who has been jacking up the TV with the slogan “5 kg for 2,000 yen,” and visiting stockpiled rice dealers to shake hands firmly with the presidents.

However, within the LDP, the party has already been divided on whether to approve or disapprove. A veteran member of the Liberal Democratic Party said, “Shinjiro is a good man for improving the rice market.

Shinjiro has been ridiculed for prioritizing his media appearances and practicing his speeches over preparing and laying the groundwork for improving the rice market. In fact, the thick documents he brings to committee meetings still contain basic information on the current state of agricultural businesses and the size of the rice market, as if he has not done his homework. On the other hand, they like the catchphrase this time, and when people around them prepare materials, they are increasingly asking them to ‘put in numbers, something easy to understand.
In the first place, it was only because of the relationship with the Ministry of Finance, which has been partnered with us since the election of the president in 2009, that we were able to execute the voluntary contract. Frankly speaking, it appears that he is just riding on the portable shrine led by the Ministry of Finance. I still have my doubts about his skill.

The House of Councillors election, which will determine the fate of the LDP, is coming up in July. Assistant Professor Ogawa commented, “The release of stockpiled rice appears to be more of a measure against high prices than a rice policy. Compared to cash transfers, which are often on the Diet agenda, the release of stockpiled rice is speedy and requires no administrative procedures. This is an attempt to lock in votes,” says Koizumi, who may be aiming for the same thing. However, excessive release is a double-edged sword.

Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru (68) selected Shinjiro to boost his approval rating. However, the remaining stockpile of rice is only about 300,000 tons. In the unlikely event that he only has 5,000 yen worth of rice during the crucial election period, it could happen.
We have made enemies of many farmers and fishermen, including former Minister of Agriculture Tetsuro Nomura (81), who complained bitterly about this forced push through. If he fails to contribute to the election, he may never hold a key position again, let alone the prime ministership. The real test is yet to come.

Will he produce results and be called the savior of the nation and become the “post-Ishiba” leader? It all depends on the future price of rice.

From the June 20, 2025 issue of FRIDAY