A Russian athlete is returning to the ’26 Winter Olympics!　What is the key for Kaori Sakamoto to win the gold medal?

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February ’22, the International Skating Union (ISU) has banned Russian and Russian-backed Belarusian athletes in figure skating, speed skating, and short track competitions from participating in international events.

However, last December, the ISU announced that competitors from both countries will be allowed to participate in the ’26 Milan Cortina d’Ampezzo (Italy) with conditions, including a physical examination.

How much will this affect Japanese athletes and other world-class athletes?

Impact on Russian Athletes

In the figure skating world, Russia is a very strong country, a regular gold medal winner. In the women’s singles competition at the 2010 Beijing Olympics, with the exception of bronze medalist Kaori Sakamoto (25), gold medalist Anna Scherbakova (21), silver medalist Alexandra Trusova (20), and fourth-place finisher Kamila Valieva (19) were all Russian, and the results were truly overwhelming for any other country. The Russian team won the Russian Championships in December last year.

Adelia Petrosyan (17), who won the Russian Championships last December and is rumored to be competing in her first Olympics after jumping the triple axel and quadruple, a huge feat not included in Sakamoto’s program, is also a competitor to watch.

However, their slots are limited to one athlete each in the men’s and women’s single events, and one pair each in the ice dance and pairs events, both of which will be held in September this year, and they are both individual participants in the qualifying competition. There is no quota for a national team. Considering the power of figure skating in Russia, the one slot for each is an unprecedentedly tight limit for a normal Olympics.

In Japan, Sakamoto has been the queen since the Beijing Olympics, winning three consecutive World Championships, including the Grand Prix Final in 2023-24, although she came in second at the ’25 Games.

Japan and Russia have a great deal of influence on each other, and can be called rivals. Will Russian participation in the Olympics be a barrier for Sakamoto? Figure skating expert and sportswriter, Kako Umeda, explains: “You can’t talk about it hypothetically.

I can’t speak hypothetically, but I don’t think Sakamoto could have won back-to-back World Championships …… because there were no Russian skaters. It is true that at the Beijing Olympics, Russian athletes performed big tricks such as triple axel and quadruple axel, and they gave great performances packed with Russian traditions and new techniques.

However, Sakamoto has a “double axel” that gets huge points. It is not high, but the double axel, which he jumps without losing speed, is high quality and dynamic. More than anything else, she can perform a back spiral, a difficult position in the double axel, which is usually seen in pairs, by herself, and it is fascinating. I don’t think there is anyone else who can do such a thing as Sakamoto.

Stability” is the greatest weapon.

He also predicted that high jumps, which are expected to score high, are a “double-edged sword,” and that there will be a big difference between the two.

The triple axel and quadruple axel can score high points if they are executed perfectly, but in fact, there are very few people who can do them perfectly. If they fail, or if they are under-rotated or wobbly, there is a big risk of points being deducted, so there are inevitably fluctuations for jumpers who use their jumps as weapons.

On the other hand, Sakamoto can jump a double axel from a difficult position, a precise triple flip, and a triple lutz, all of which are expected to score points. It is not easy for Sakamoto to show what goodness he has, but that is more stable than a single or double performance like triple axel or quadruple, in which a failure would result in a big point deduction. The higher the success rate, the more advantageous it will be,” said Umeda.

In addition, the fact that Russian athletes have been unable to compete in international competitions for the past several years “is clearly working to their disadvantage.

Athletes compete in a number of international competitions before the Olympics, and they modify and brush up their programs while listening to the feedback of various judges. Russian athletes have not competed in international competitions for about three years, and they are not accustomed to the competitions. If Petrosian is selected for the national team, the world’s attention will be focused on him because he has no experience in international competitions like the Russian athletes at the Beijing Olympics. The pressure is considerable. In such a situation, they will surely jump a triple axel or a quadruple. If it is perfect, he might win, but I don’t think he can do that, and he is not that naive.

I think Sakamoto has an advantage over the Russians, but he has other rivals. American athletes such as Alisa Liu (19) and Amber Glenn (25), who won the World Championships this year and will be refining their triple axel, will be stronger opponents. Japan is also “saturated” in a good sense of the word, with a remarkable growth of athletes who are in good shape. Mao Shimada (16), who will not be able to compete in next year’s Olympics due to age restrictions, is also a strong competitor. She is also a strong competitor.

Sakamoto commented on the news that Russian athletes were allowed to participate, saying, “I am thrilled. I expect her to win a gold medal in the next Olympics.