Arashi’s Final Tour Next Spring Set to Smash Records with Over 30 Billion Yen in Sales

The will behind Ohno’s intentions

The nationally beloved idol group Arashi marked their 25th anniversary last year. After a four-and-a-half-year hiatus, the announcement on May 6 that their activities will officially end following a tour next spring has sent waves that continue to ripple. A key TV network employee reflects on the series of events leading to this decision.

“In 2017, Ohno Satoshi (44) gathered the other four members — Aiba Masaki (42), Matsumoto Jun (41), Ninomiya Kazunari (41), and Sakurai Sho (43) — and expressed his intention: ‘I want Arashi’s activities to end in 2020. On the occasion of our 20th anniversary and the year 2020, I want to close the chapter on Arashi for now. I want each of us to walk our own paths freely, without being tied down by anything.’ Since then, the members and their agency held many discussions, culminating in a January 2019 press conference where all five members formally announced the group’s hiatus.”

Despite numerous discussions over a long period, Ohno’s resolve never wavered. The recent decision to completely end activities was also driven by Ohno’s wishes.

“The key factor was that Ohno consistently refused to agree to a full group restart. Around 2017, when he first expressed his intention to pause activities, he relocated his base to Miyakojima, Okinawa, living a laid-back lifestyle. Meanwhile, he has deepened business partnerships with close acquaintances, becoming the owner of a local bar and resort hotel. He is actively acquiring land and buildings and is now primarily focused on business ventures, showing little attachment to the entertainment world,” said a sports newspaper entertainment desk source.

Regarding the decision to end activities, what about the remaining four members? The same TV network employee continued:

“In October 2023, Ninomiya left the agency he had long belonged to and established his own company, actively managing calls and emails by himself. Given his focus on his acting career, it’s not surprising that continuing group activities became difficult for him.

Matsumoto was the member most eager to keep the group going, but the gap between him and the more contrasting Ohno and Ninomiya could not be bridged. Aiba and Sakurai share a close friendship, even spending time together privately, but both have aged, married, and entered new life stages, taking a neutral stance on continuing group activities. As a result, continuing as a group became untenable, leading to the decision to disband.”

 

On a scale of at least 30 billion yen

Amid all this, the five members have decided to hold a live tour next spring. It is widely expected to become a historic revenue milestone in the Japanese live music scene, but just how big will it be? A concert industry insider explains:

“In 2018, before the COVID-19 pandemic, the group’s 20th anniversary tour ‘ARASHI Anniversary Tour 5×20’ held 50 shows with a total attendance of about 2.375 million people, setting the record for the largest single-tour attendance in Japan. The fan club membership is currently estimated to be around 3 million, so it’s certain this will be the largest-scale event in Japanese entertainment history. Based on past examples, ticket prices are expected to be around 10,000 yen per ticket, so a rough calculation of ticket sales alone estimates about 30 billion yen, which should be considered a minimum figure.”

In addition to ticket sales, significant revenue is also expected from sponsors and merchandise sales. Including these, the total revenue is expected to far surpass the scale of the ‘Major League Dodgers Opening Series’ that swept Japan in March this year.

“Other income sources such as live viewing events, tour DVD sales, and broadcast rights fees—like for the Amazon Prime Video exclusive ‘ARASHI Anniversary Tour 5×20 FILM ‘Record of Memories’—will contribute to a substantial overall income. Reports estimated the economic impact of the Dodgers vs. Cubs game this spring at around 25 billion yen including ticket sales, but this event is sure to have an even greater impact. Expectations are high for how much excitement it will generate,” says the concert industry insider quoted earlier.

Arashi’s final tour, which is sure to surpass even Shohei Ohtani, is not only drawing the attention of fans but also the general public. The ticket battle is about to begin.