LDP Struggles to Secure Celebrity Candidates for Upper House Election

Will the so-called celebrity candidates become a spark to revive the struggling party?

On May 1st, in the middle of Golden Week, professional dancer Fish Nakata (39), who has been officially nominated as a Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) proportional representation candidate for the House of Councillors, held a candidacy press conference at a dance studio inside a commercial facility on the former site of Miyashita Park in Shibuya Ward. His older brother is Atsuhiko Nakata (42) of “Oriental Radio.”

The brothers have formed a dance unit called “RADIO FISH” and performed at the 2016 NHK Kōhaku Uta Gassen. Fish Nakata has experience winning national dance championships in both high school and university, as well as achievements in world competitions. His TikTok follower count stands at 220,000.

“There’s a chance he could draw in demographics the LDP hasn’t been able to reach, especially younger generations. Coming from the street scene, Fish Nakata might be able to tap into the floating voters who haven’t turned out for elections,” expressed Fumiaki Kobayashi (42), State Minister for the Environment, who also served as moderator at the press conference, voicing his expectations for Nakata’s candidacy.

For the House of Councillors election scheduled for voting and counting in July, the LDP has decided to field 27 candidates, including organizational nominees from the Japan Medical Association, the postmasters’ association, and others (14 incumbents and 13 newcomers). They are aiming for a total of around 30 candidates, similar to the previous 2022 election. In the 2022 election, the party secured 18 proportional representation seats, but this time, amid declining party support over the long-running money and politics scandals, predictions circulating in Nagatachō suggest a sluggish outcome of around 12.

“In every upper house election, celebrities run for office and — for better or worse — attract attention. The higher the name recognition, the more likely candidates will jump in at the last minute like a ‘last-minute rock-paper-scissors’ play, hoping to carry a fresh impression into voting day. As a result, announcements usually come right before the election.

However, this time, with support rates plummeting due to the ongoing money and politics issue for over a year, and support sinking even further after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s (68) voucher handouts, famous figures approached by the party have declined, pushing back announcements,” explained a veteran LDP secretary.

Another secretary hinted, “The LDP is planning to field other famous figures besides Fish Nakata.”

They missed out on an announcer candidate

“They’ve been trying to secure pro wrestler Atsushi Onita (67) as a candidate, with House of Representatives member Satoshi Fujimaru (65) — who once served as secretary to former LDP Secretary-General Makoto Koga (84) — making the rounds in the Diet members’ offices. Onita, who left the party himself in 2007, has reportedly received signatures from lawmakers in the Kishida-led Kōchikai faction, including former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (67), on a petition for his reinstatement. If the party ethics committee approves his return after Golden Week, he’s expected to be officially nominated for a proportional representation seat.

Other likely proportional representation candidates include Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly member Rie Saito (41), known from Notes from a Hostess Who Communicates by Writing, and House of Councillors member Muneo Suzuki (77). These four are intended as vote boosters for the proportional representation list, but the lack of fresh talent is apparent, and the effect on increasing seats seems limited at best.”

Adding to the headwinds of the under-the-table money scandal is the growing popularity of the Democratic Party for the People (DPP), led by Yuichiro Tamaki (56). Riding the momentum of quadrupling their seats to 28 in last autumn’s Lower House election, the DPP has seen their candidates top the polls in city assembly elections held between January and April in places like Yokohama, Kitakyushu, Koganei, Ōita, Shizuoka, and Kamakura.

“The LDP also approached NHK announcer Mayu Ushida (39), whose candidacy was later decided by the DPP in the Tokyo electoral district. LDP heavyweights like former Policy Research Council Chairperson Koichi Hagiuda (61) had made overtures to her, suggesting Osaka or nationwide proportional representation, since she’s from Ikeda City in Osaka. But in the end, the DPP snatched her away. It’s a far cry from the days when under-the-table money was rumored to be flying around for LDP endorsements,” said a former House of Representatives member from the LDP’s Osaka chapter.

According to a Kyodo News poll conducted in March, the party support rate among younger generations has flipped, with the DPP at 20.6% surpassing the LDP’s 16.7%.

Approach toward the non-affiliated voters

It is said that the only party that approached Mr. Fish Nakata to run was the Liberal Democratic Party. When asked about the current situation of the LDP, Fish himself responded, “I think it’s very tough. But even if it’s tough, I want to do what I want to do.”

In the last House of Councillors election, well-known candidates nominated by the LDP for proportional representation included manga artist Ken Akamatsu (56) and former SPEED member Eriko Imai (41), both of whom were elected. Other parties fielded candidates like Kiyoshi Nakajō (79), GaaSyy (53), and Dr. Suidobashi (62), who energized the campaign.

Because the House of Councillors proportional representation election treats the entire country as a single electoral district, name recognition plays a crucial role. For this reason, it has become customary for each party to field celebrity candidates.

“As a result, members like GaaSyy, who was expelled for not attending parliament, and Kiyoshi Nakajō, who used parliamentary questioning to promote new songs and dinner shows, have emerged. The proportional representation district has 50 seats up for election. We should consider reducing that number,” said the veteran secretary quoted earlier.

With about two months remaining until the election, the Constitutional Democratic Party has nearly confirmed the nomination of Renhō (57), who won 1.28 million votes in the recent Tokyo gubernatorial election. Other parties do not seem to be planning surprise celebrity candidacies, and a big-name entry into politics appears unlikely.

At the press conference, Fish revealed plans to tour the country using a bandwagon vehicle, adding:

“There are various people on the street, each with their own sense of justice and clashing opinions. Politics is the same — we have to find a compromise. I want to run as a candidate from the LDP because they can make practical compromises, not just idealistic ones. There won’t be any ultra-clever moves. We just have to do steady ground-level campaigning with our feet on the ground.”

Can the LDP bring back young people and non-affiliated voters who have drifted away?