Japan’s “flirtatious Putin diplomacy” under scrutiny in tense Ukraine

On January 24, the U.S. Department of Defense announced that approximately 8,500 U.S. military personnel have been placed on “standby for deployment. They will join the NATO Quick Reaction Force in neighboring countries in the event that Russian forces invade Ukraine.

The crisis that began with Russia’s deployment of a 100,000-strong military force to the Ukrainian border has finally taken on the appearance of “the eve of war.

On January 23, the United States decided to evacuate some staff members of the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine and their families. On the following day, January 24, the United Kingdom decided to do the same. Germany and Australia are expected to follow suit. On the same day, the Japanese government also recommended the suspension of travel.

Russia has been threatening Japan with military force and making demands that have no legitimacy in international law, such as the assurance that Ukraine will not join NATO and the withdrawal of NATO forces from Eastern Europe.

Why is the Japanese government beholden to Russia?

The U.S. and Europe are trying hard to stifle Russia, which is about to engage in literal “aggression,” through “negotiations. However, in the midst of such a tense international situation, Japan, despite being a proud member of the G7 and a major Western country, was the only country that “went along with” Russia.

What was particularly surprising was the announcement by Foreign Minister Lavrov on January 14 that he would visit Japan in the next two to three months. This would have been meaningful if the foreign ministers were meeting to try to stop Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, but of course they are not, and the agenda is the usual peace treaty negotiations.

Naturally, Foreign Minister Lavrov is not going to change his position, so there will be no real progress, but as usual, the meeting will end with a handshake and a smile, saying, “We will continue to negotiate positively on a peace treaty (*the term “territorial negotiations” will no longer be used). In other words, for Russia, it will be a good propaganda tool to break the unity of the West.

Although there has been no official announcement from the Japanese government, there was in fact a request from the Russian side, and the Japanese side was considering accepting it. There is a reason why the Japanese government has not rejected such a farce at this time. This is because the Japanese government has consistently engaged in “flattering Putin diplomacy,” as it were, by looking at President Putin’s face and making discoveries so as not to offend him.

For example, at the Sochi Olympics in February 2014, only the prime minister of Italy and former prime minister Shinzo Abe from the G7 attended the games, while all major countries boycotted the diplomatic mission due to human rights issues in Russia.

Japan, a country that does not participate in “diplomatic sanctions” against Russia

In the case of the invasion of Crimea in March of the same year, Japan formally participated in the sanctions imposed by Western countries, but in reality, it limited its participation to areas that had little impact on the Russian economy.

In March 2018, a former Russian intelligence officer in exile in the United Kingdom suffered an assassination attempt by Russian agents with military-grade poison, and Japan was the only major Western country not to participate in diplomatic sanctions at that time.

Furthermore, Russia’s fake information operations to instigate division in Western society were alarming and condemned by many countries, but even during that time, former Prime Minister Abe continued to promote his closeness with President Putin.

The Japanese government, as a full member of the G7 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, is only listed in the statement, but other than that, it has been shying away from Russia. The reason why Japan alone, in defiance of the unity of the Western camp, has always stood by the Putin regime, which has committed numerous human rights abuses and criminal acts, is that it did not want to offend President Putin on the Northern Territories issue.

Hoping for the Return of the Northern Territories

In fact, the Putin administration has never officially announced its intention to hand over the territories to Japan, and in reality, the handover of the islands has not progressed even a millimeter, but because the Japanese government wanted to avoid a “breakdown in negotiations,” it has given top priority to continuing negotiations with Russia. However, the Japanese government wanted to avoid a “breakdown in negotiations,” so it gave top priority to continuing negotiations with Russia.

The Russians, too, are aware of the Japanese government’s position, and have played into the hands of the Japanese government by avoiding the handover of the territory, while at the same time occasionally saying and doing things that might make the Japanese government feel uncomfortable. As seen in the story of Foreign Minister Lavrov’s recent visit to Japan, this structure is still in place today.

The reason why the Japanese government has fallen into such a trap lies in the “position” of successive administrations and the “policy” of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. With regard to the former, the return of the territories is a long-cherished desire of the Japanese people, and the government wanted to avoid pessimistic observations for domestic political reasons. From the standpoint of the Japanese people, it is difficult to say that it is difficult.

As for the latter, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is basically tasked with building friendly relations not only with Russia but also with other countries, and it has a vector for avoiding trouble with foreign countries. Moreover, the attitudes of the political side and the diplomatic authorities have interacted with each other, and for many years there has been a situation in which territorial negotiations, which have not even come up for political discussion on the Russian side, have been met with growing expectations only in Japan.

Furthermore, this issue of territorial return has become a great hope for the prior return of the two islands under the Abe administration.

In fact, for a while during the Koizumi administration, there was a fierce debate between the “four-island package” and the “two-island first” argument over the policy of diplomacy with Russia, and the two-island first camp at the time had a close personal relationship with former Prime Minister Abe. The “two-islands-first” argument is based on the assumption that the Putin administration intends to return the two islands, and therefore its stance toward Russia is premised on a friendly approach.

Former Prime Minister Abe conducted his diplomacy with Russia based on this premise, and thus maintained a stance of building a friendly relationship with the Putin administration. The Japanese government’s restrained response to the Crimea issue and the attempted poisoning, which is outstandingly backward even among major Western countries, is a result of this composition.

Change of Direction by the Kishida Administration

Although the Japanese government has since moved on to the Kan administration and now to the Kishida administration, former Prime Minister Abe still has a great deal of political influence.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, a politician who originally served as foreign minister in Abe’s administration for more than four and a half years, did not make negotiations with Russia a particularly contentious issue in either the LDP presidential election or the general election for the House of Representatives during the process of assuming power.

Even in his policy speech on October 8, 2021, after the inauguration of his new administration, he merely added a few words at the end, saying, “There will be no conclusion of a peace treaty with Russia without the resolution of the territorial issue. This shows that he does not have high expectations for negotiations with Russia.

Even after that, the Kishida administration did not show any particular signs of actively pursuing diplomacy with Russia. However, former Prime Minister Abe’s side lobbied for the continuation of negotiations with Russia.

As a result, in his policy speech on January 17, he said, “Based on the various agreements reached to date, including the exchange of views at the 2018 summit meeting in Singapore, we will take over the exchange of views between the leaders in 2018 and beyond and persistently pursue negotiations. This is also a statement of acknowledging the achievements of former Prime Minister Abe and carrying on his policy.

Inheriting the policy of the Abe administration means that a “friendly approach” to diplomacy with Russia is a prerequisite. For this reason, on January 21, Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi was asked at a press conference whether Japan would agree to U.S. sanctions against Russia in the event that Russia invaded Ukraine, and he refrained from answering the question, saying, “I would like to refrain from answering hypothetical questions, but we would like to respond appropriately. Since the prime minister had not decided on his policy, he had no choice but to answer in that way.

Immediately after that, during the same day, the Japan-U.S. summit online meeting between President Biden and Prime Minister Kishida took place. At the meeting, however, Biden made a clear request to Kishida to join the sanctions against Russia, and Kishida agreed. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs website states.

Kishida pledged to continue to coordinate closely with the United States, other friendly countries and partners, and the international community on taking strong action against any attack.

The U.S. is considering imposing massive economic and financial sanctions on Russia, and for Japan to slip through the cracks would naturally disrupt unity. Japan, which always evades sanctions against Russia, has been nailed to the wall, so to speak.

This means that if Russia invades Ukraine in the future, Japan has promised to actively participate in the condemnation and sanctions against Russia imposed by the West.

What the Putin regime is doing is a crime against world peace and human rights, and the democratic camp must work together to contain it.

Japan, however, is the only country that has been running from the ranks. Now is the time for the Kishida administration to break away from the flirtatious Putin diplomacy of the Japanese government to date.