Possibility of “Murderous Heavy Snowfall” Striking Tokyo in February

A new disaster is looming in the Tokyo metropolitan area.

On the 6th of this month, 10cm of snow was observed in Tokyo, and cars were stuck on the Tokyo Metropolitan Expressway for over 10 hours due to the heaviest snowfall in four years. By 6:00 a.m. on the morning of the 7th, there were about 1,200 traffic-related calls to 110, and 215 people had been transported to hospital by 9:00 a.m. on the 7th due to accidents caused by icy roads. Akira Mori, a meteorologist and representative of Weather Map, a weather information company, explains the cause of the heavy snowfall.

The snow that fell on the Tokyo metropolitan area this time was caused by a ‘south coast low’ in the Pacific Ocean. This low pressure system, which sucks up a lot of moist air from the warm Kuroshio Current, approached the Japanese archipelago and dumped heavy snow on the Tokyo metropolitan area.

In 1984, the south coast low pressure system caused the highest total snowfall in recorded history, with 92 cm in Tokyo and 109 cm in Yokohama. In recent years, due to global warming, the sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean has risen, which has made it more humid and more powerful.

According to Mr. Mori, the threat of the south coast low is looming again, and he predicts that “heavy snow will fall in the Tokyo metropolitan area in February. This is due to the La Niña phenomenon, which occurred last autumn and is causing abnormal weather around the world.

The La Niña phenomenon has caused the westerly winds over Japan to meander, bringing cold air from continental regions such as Russia southward to Japan. This cold air is causing snow to fall on the Sea of Japan side, while on the Pacific side, it is helping to keep the south coast low pressure system away from the coast. However, the La Niña is expected to weaken in the coming months, which will allow the low pressure system in the Pacific to move closer to Japan.

If it arrives, it will collide with the cold air flowing into the sky due to the La Niña phenomenon and cause heavy snowfall. The Tokyo metropolitan area needs to be on the lookout for even heavier snowfall than the other day.

If there is a record snowfall, Tokyo’s infrastructure, which is not accustomed to snow damage, could be severely damaged. Minoru Watanabe, a disaster prevention and crisis management journalist, said.

Minoru Watanabe, a disaster and crisis management journalist, says, “The first thing that could happen is a blackout caused by broken power lines. People who use ventilators and other electronic devices would be in mortal danger. Even scarier is the impact on the communication infrastructure. Unlike other infrastructures, it has developed rapidly in the last decade or so with the spread of cell phones, so it has no experience of heavy snow damage and its snow resistance is questionable. If a major communication failure were to occur, emergency dialing would be impossible. If this happens, many lives will be at stake.

This snowfall may be just a prelude to a “killer snowstorm”.

The arrival of one of the largest typhoons ever

Even if the La Niña phenomenon does not weaken and we are fortunate enough to be spared the effects of the south coast cyclone, there is still a possibility that another threat will arise in April. This is a powerful spring typhoon. Manabu Takahashi, a professor at the Center for the Study of Pacific Rim Civilizations at Ritsumeikan University, explains the power of these typhoons.

There is a possibility that a typhoon could hit the Tokyo metropolitan area as early as April. Typhoons are more likely to form due to the La Niña phenomenon. The worst-case scenario is that the typhoon will pass over the Kuroshio Current, accumulate more and more water vapor, expand its strength, and hit Tokyo. A huge typhoon like Typhoon No. 19 in October 2007, which caused the Chikuma River (Nagano Prefecture) and Abukuma River (Fukushima Prefecture) to overflow and left 51 people dead or missing in the Kanto-Koshinetsu region, could hit the Tokyo metropolitan area any time after spring.

What can we do to deal with the abnormal weather that keeps hitting Japan? Mr. Watanabe says that it is important to be aware of the situation.

It is essential to take measures such as refraining from going out during bad weather and checking the hazard map for flood risks. It is not enough to say, ‘Things have been fine in the past,’ but we must always be aware that ‘Things are not the same anymore.

The X-Day is fast approaching.

From FRIDAY, January 28, 2022