Data-Driven Predictions Reveal This Year’s Central and Pacific League Champions in Pro Baseball

Big prediction for the championship teams in both leagues!

After five months since DeNA, ranked third in the Central League, achieved an upset victory to become Japan’s number one, the 12 teams in the Central and Pacific Leagues are once again fiercely competing for the top spot this year.

Every season, television and newspapers feature predictions by critics about the rankings, but FRIDAY, with the cooperation of DELTA, a company specializing in data analysis and operations, conducted a thorough review of the data from the past three years. They applied a statistical approach known as “SABRmetrics” to objectively analyze and predict the win-loss records for all 12 teams.

Will the Giants and SoftBank continue their reign, or will Hanshin reclaim the throne? Will DeNA finally achieve their long-awaited league championship? Or will “Shinjiro Theater” come to a close with the Nippon-Ham Fighters? By analyzing baseball scientifically and removing subjectivity, which teams will come out on top in both leagues?

First, DELTA analyst Hiroshi Miyashita explains the method behind the win-loss predictions.

“We typically use a metric called WAR (Wins Above Replacement) to predict team performance. This measures how much a player’s contributions increase a team’s wins compared to a typical backup player. For position players, this includes batting performance, fielding metrics, and baserunning, while for pitchers, it includes strikeout rates, home runs allowed, and walks. For example, Shohei Ohtani, who achieved the unprecedented feat of a ’54-59′ record last season, had a WAR of 9.2. Even as a DH, with no defensive contributions, he still added 9 wins to his team’s total. By summing up each player’s WAR and adding a base of 45 wins, we can estimate the team’s projected win total.”

A WAR of 2.0 or higher indicates a solid regular player, 5.0 or higher corresponds to an All-Star-level player, and a WAR above 6.0 reflects MVP-caliber performance. Each WAR point is valued at about 100 million yen in salary.

For this analysis, data from the last three years (2022–2024) was used, so players who broke out last year have lower WAR values, while players who had strong performances in 2022-2023 but weaker 2024 performances are given higher estimates.

Now, let’s look at the Central League. DeNA, last year’s champions, are again expected to perform well. Toshiaki Imae, who managed Rakuten until last year, shares his thoughts:

“With the return of Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer, the pitching staff has been strengthened. Additionally, the lineup, including players like Shugo Maki, Toshio Miyazaki, and Tyler Austin, is still strong. Plus, young players like Kouki Kajihara and Keito Mori, who bring speed, are emerging. It’s a well-balanced team, and they carry momentum from last year.”

However, the data predicts DeNA will finish in third place again this season. While Bauer’s addition pushes the pitching WAR above 12, the batting lineup is not as strong.

“The offense is good, but the defensive metrics are poor, especially in terms of range. It’s expected that veteran third baseman Miyazaki’s defensive range will decrease as he ages. Austin had a fantastic single-season performance last year, but he’s injury-prone, so there’s no guarantee he’ll repeat the same numbers this season,” says Miyashita.

Despite their fierce competition with the Giants last season, Hanshin is predicted to fall to fourth place this year and potentially miss the playoffs. Although players like Koji Chikamoto, Yusuke Oyama, Teruaki Sato, and Shota Morishita, who ranked fifth in WAR among all 12 teams last season, are part of the team, the predicted low WAR for the bench players is a concern.

“Sure, the regular lineup is one of the best in the league. But the performances of younger or backup players are projected to be lower. To endure a full 143-game season, the performance of bench players is crucial. If young players like Kodai Inoue or Yuto Nakagawa step up, they could make a push for the championship,” Miyashita adds.

Scouts from Central League teams also express concerns about Hanshin’s transition under a new coach.

“The lack of major off-season acquisitions is a worrying factor. The first year with a new manager is often filled with challenges in building trust with players and making difficult tactical decisions.”

The Central League champion is still predicted to be the Giants

The team predicted to finish second, surpassing DeNA, is surprisingly Yakult, who finished fifth last year.

“A powerful lineup featuring players like Munetaka Murakami (25), Jose Osuna (32), Domingo Santana (32), and Yasutaka Shiomi (31) is the key to securing second place. However, Murakami is expected to be in the minor leagues at the start of the season, and Shiomi is likely to be out long-term due to a left knee injury. If key players are unavailable, they could end up in a battle for last place,” explains the analyst.

Chunichi, who finished at the bottom for three consecutive years, is predicted to move up one spot to fifth under the new management of Kazuki Inoue (53). Hiroshima, which was at the top of the standings during the midseason but fell to fourth in the end, is expected to finish in last place.

“Chunichi has the reputation of weak hitting, but the performance of their position players last year was not bad at all. Based on the data from the past three years, only Yuki Okabayashi (23) and Shigeya Hosokawa (26) are expected to reach the minimum plate appearances, while other players’ performances are uncertain. If they perform well, they could push for a spot in the top three. Hiroshima still has veterans like Shogo Akiyama (36) and Ryosuke Kikuchi (35), but younger players like Shogo Sakakura (26), Masaya Yano (26), and Kaito Koen (24) are emerging. Their defensive metrics are among the best in the league, and we hope to see growth in their offense. Despite the strong impression of their starting pitchers, their predicted pitching WAR of 8.9 is ranked fifth in the league, as their strikeout rates are not particularly high,” the analyst adds.

The data predicts that the Central League champion this year will again be the Giants, the champions from last year.

“Although ace Tomoyuki Sugano (35) left the team after winning 15 games last season, the team made major signings in the offseason, including acquiring Ridel Martínez (28), Masahiro Tanaka (36), and Tatsuya Ishikawa (26), strengthening their pitching staff significantly. The batting lineup has also seen strong contributions from new faces like Takuya Kai (32) and foreign player Trey Cabbage (27), and they could win by a large margin,” says Imae.

Not only Giants fans, but all baseball fans will be watching closely as Tanaka (with 197 career wins) could achieve his 200th win, which data suggests is entirely possible.

“Although he only made one appearance last year, his numbers in 2022 and 2023 were not bad. He still has room to contribute, and is predicted to pitch 125 innings, with a record of 7 wins and 8 loses. His strikeout numbers are expected to decrease, but his solid defense and strong batting lineup will support him,” says Miyashita.

With little new talent added, Hanshin is predicted to drop to the bottom tier, while the heavily reinforced Giants are set for a potential repeat championship. Data, free from personal biases, sometimes forces us to face reality.

How will Kondo’s departure affect him?

Let’s shift our focus to the Pacific League. Last season, Seibu suffered 91 losses and experienced the humiliation of finishing at the very bottom. A scout from a certain Pacific League team predicts, “Despite struggling with poor hitting last season, there’s no noticeable reinforcement in the batting lineup. They might sink to last place again this year.” However, the data suggests an improvement, predicting them to move up two spots and finish in 4th place.

“Last year, pitcher Kōnase (28) had a disastrous season with no wins, but considering his past performance, it’s hard to believe this will continue. Young pitchers like Takeuchi (23), Sumida (25), and Imai (26) are some of the best young talents in the league, supporting the rotation, and if Hirara (25) closes out games effectively, the team will stabilize. However, their lack of hitting power remains a challenge,” says Miyashita.

Replacing Seibu in the predicted last-place spot is Rakuten, who finished 4th last year.

“The team doesn’t have many players capable of significantly boosting the team’s wins, with only Ryosuke Tatsumi (28) standing out. The pitching staff’s strikeout numbers have been trending downward, and their team ERA was also the worst last season. Veteran pitcher Kishi (40), who is part of the rotation, is expected to have fewer starts due to age,” adds the same source.

Despite this, former manager Imae has hopes for the team to make the A-class.

“Last year, Takahashi (26) and Fujii (28) each recorded double-digit wins, and relievers like Fujii (28) and Suzuki (28) have started to show their potential. Kōda (34) was the backup leader last season, so we expect him to continue growing.”

Last season’s 5th place finisher, Orix, is predicted to stay in 5th place, as they have not found replacements to fill the gaps left by Yoshinobu Yamamoto (26) and Masanobu Yoshida (31), both of whom moved to the major leagues. Despite ace pitcher Miyagi (23) performing well, their overall team performance leaves much to be desired.

Without Sasaki Rōki (23), who transferred to the Dodgers, Lotte, while lacking standout players, has balanced pitching and hitting, and is predicted to finish in 3rd place.

Lotte insiders also state, 

“Rookie Nishikawa (22) is expected to lead the team from the start, and the veterans are stepping up. If this momentum continues, they could even win the championship.”

Meanwhile, Softbank, who dominated last season and won the Pacific League, is predicted to finish first again this year.

“With strong hitters like Ken Suzuki (31), who led the league in WAR last season, and reliable pitchers like Kohei Arihara (32) and Līvan Moinelo (31), they have few weaknesses. If they perform as they did last year, there’s a high chance of them winning the championship again.”

On the other hand, there are concerns that aren’t reflected in the data. 

“Ryo Kurihara (28), who recorded the second-highest WAR last season, has been delayed due to an injury to his right side, and Kondo (31) is undergoing surgery for a back issue with an uncertain recovery time. Catcher Kai (31) moved to the Giants, and outfielder Shuto (29) underwent left knee surgery in the off-season, and its impact is uncertain. Given the higher average age of the regulars, there’s a possibility that they could finish lower than expected,” says Miyashita.

In contrast to Softbank, the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters, predicted to finish in 2nd place again, have many potential upside factors.

“They have a wealth of young power hitters, including Manami (24), who is expected to record a WAR of 3.7, Kiyomiya (25), who recorded a .300 average last season and hit the team’s first home run of the season in the opening game, Nomura (24), who hit two consecutive home runs on March 30th, and Tamiya (24), a strong-hitting catcher. While the WAR predictions for these young players tend to be lower, their collective WAR of 18.2 ranks 2nd in the league. Additionally, the performance of recently acquired Franmil Reyes (29) is expected to exceed predictions. Despite the volatility of young players, their explosive potential gives them a good chance of winning the championship,” says the same source.

The teams predicted to win the championship in both the Central and Pacific Leagues, according to data, are last year’s champions, the Giants and Softbank. However, it is also true that “variables” not yet apparent in the data can lead to unexpected outcomes. Understanding this data could make this season’s professional baseball even more dramatic perhaps.

From the April 18, 2025 issue of “FRIDAY”