Emergency Warning Report] Myanmar Earthquake: M7.7, Death Toll Over 10,000… “The Same Thing Will Happen in Japan”.

Energy is twice that of the Noto Peninsula earthquake.

My parents and sister were safe, but they said they were terrified by the violent shaking, which they had never experienced before. However, my uncle and aunt are unable to confirm their safety because a hotel near their home collapsed. A school also collapsed, leaving many children buried alive.

Mr. Maheema, director of the NPO “Myanmar Culture Center Japan,” is concerned about his relatives in Myanmar.

On March 28, a major earthquake hit central Myanmar. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, its magnitude (M) was 7.7, and its energy was nearly twice that of the Noto Peninsula earthquake last January. The earthquake was caused by the Zagain fault, which is considered one of the world’s first faults. Hiroyuki Tsutsumi, president of the Active Fault Society of Japan and professor at Doshisha University, who has surveyed the area several times, explains.

The length from north to south reaches 1,500 km, which is about the same as the length of Honshu Island. The average annual displacement is about 2 cm. The Median Tectonic Line, which crosses from eastern Kyushu to the Kii Peninsula, averages about 1 cm per year, which gives you an idea of its magnitude. The earthquake was caused by the horizontal displacement of the Zagain fault. The epicenter has not experienced an earthquake since 1839, so the strain has been building up for nearly 200 years, and a huge amount of energy must have been released at once.

According to Myanmar’s military government, 2,056 people were killed and nearly 300 are missing (as of April 1, 2011). However, the aforementioned U.S. Geological Survey’s estimate is even more severe, saying that the death toll is likely to exceed 10,000.

This is by no means an isolated incident.

What is unique about the earthquake is that the damage is spreading even to Bangkok, the capital of Thailand, 1000 km away from the epicenter of the quake. More than 80 people were buried under debris when a high-rise building under construction collapsed, and more than 100 people are dead or missing in Thailand. Shuji Tamura, a professor at Tokyo University of Science who specializes in geotechnical engineering, said, “The earthquake was a long time in coming.

Long-period seismic tremors, in which large, slow tremors continue for a long period of time, are thought to be responsible for the earthquake. Long-period seismic tremors travel far from the epicenter and are amplified in soft ground. Bangkok is located on the plains downstream of the Chao Phraya River, on soft ground. I think there is a strong possibility that the long-period waves caused by the earthquake in Myanmar were amplified.”

Slow, long-period seismic motions tend to shake high-rise buildings more than low-rise buildings. An example of this is the image broadcast around the world of water rippling and cascading down from the rooftop pool of a high-rise condominium in Bangkok.

However, this frightening natural phenomenon is by no means an isolated event. Mr. Tamura continues.

Japan’s major cities, such as eastern Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya, are also located on plains, where the ground is soft. If a huge earthquake were to occur, it would not be surprising if, as in Bangkok, long-period seismic motions would selectively shake high-rise buildings. In fact, during the Great East Japan Earthquake, the 55-story Sakishima government office building in Osaka Prefecture, located approximately 770 km from the epicenter, shook more than 1 meter, causing elevators to stop, trapping people, and damaging interior materials.

According to the national government’s assumption, in the event of an M9-class Nankai Trough earthquake, high-rise buildings 200 to 300 meters high would sway up to 6 meters in Osaka, 2 meters in Nagoya, and 2 to 3 meters in Tokyo. High-rise buildings built before 2000, when measures against long-period seismic motions were inadequate, are in danger of being damaged or collapsing, resulting in a large number of casualties. Yoshiaki Kawata, a specially appointed professor at Kansai University who specializes in natural disasters, sounds the alarm.

Japanese people tend to think of disasters that occur overseas as something that happens to other people,” he says. However, there is no guarantee that the same catastrophe will not occur in Japan. The Nankai Trough earthquake could happen at any time, so we should have a sense of crisis.

The earthquake that claimed the lives of many people in Myanmar and Thailand is not a fire on the other side of the river.

From the April 28, 2025 issue of FRIDAY