Ishiba’s Suspicion Grows in 10 Million Yen Gift Certificate Leak: Hunt for Leaker and Mastermind

Someone wants to bring him down

“As a result of following the advice of many people, this is what happened. Could there be someone who wants to frame me?”

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba (68) expressed regret to a veteran lawmaker he has known for years about distributing 100,000 yen worth of gift certificates to 15 first-year House of Representatives members from the Liberal Democratic Party.

The incident that Prime Minister Ishiba regretted happened on March 3. He invited 15 rookie lawmakers to the Prime Minister’s official residence and treated them to local gibier dishes and sake from his hometown of Tottori. After drinking alcohol, Ishiba became more talkative and shared a story from his early years in politics. He recalled being told by Kakuei Tanaka, “Don’t think too much; just walk,” and how he walked tirelessly through his district with supporters, visiting 200 houses one day and 300 the next. He reportedly told the rookie lawmakers:

“More votes won’t come from the number of houses you’ve visited. Only the number of hands you’ve shaken will get you votes.”

For the rookie lawmakers who are familiar with SNS, the LDP’s traditional mudboard election strategy was apparently shocking. However, the conversation with the Prime Minister and the party leader at the official residence was supposed to be confidential. It was customary to not talk casually elsewhere, but this was not followed.

Before the dinner with the 15 rookie lawmakers, Ishiba had handed out 100,000 yen worth of gift certificates as souvenirs, which was scooped by the Asahi Shimbun and quickly followed by other newspapers. The controversy, involving SNS, has continued to this day. The remarks by Senator Shoji Nishida (66) about Ishiba not taking responsibility for the defeat in the previous election and stating that his position should be judged after the budget passed also gained attention, and Ishiba’s administration’s approval rating dropped to the 20% range.

The gift certificate distribution issue has further pushed Ishiba’s weakening administration into a corner. Within the LDP and the government, names of possible masterminds are being speculated, one of whom is Koichi Hagiuda (61), a former policy chief under the Abe administration.

“After the previous general election, due to the faction’s slush fund issue, members of the former Abe faction fought as independents, and only 22 out of 50 managed to return. Hagiuda also struggled as an independent, and the subsequent personnel decisions continued to treat the former Abe faction poorly, deepening his resentment.

In early April, the Ministry of Finance is expected to release documents related to the Moritomo Gakuen case. The name of Akie Abe (62), the wife of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, is sure to be highlighted, so it’s believed that the gift certificate leak might have been an attempt to counter this.” (Reporter from a national newspaper political department)

A true internal and external concern

Surprisingly, names of key figures like Deputy Prime Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi (64) and former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (67) are also being mentioned as possible masterminds behind the issue. The reporter continues:

“Ishiba, who owes a debt of gratitude to Kishida from the previous presidential election, couldn’t stand up to him and followed his advice without question. The gift certificate distribution issue seems to have followed a precedent, with Ishiba adhering to Kishida’s advice. If Ishiba’s administration were to collapse, a ‘temporary emergency administration’ would likely have to be formed, and the leading candidate for its top position is believed to be Hayashi, the Chief Cabinet Secretary.

Hayashi, who boasts eight cabinet appointments, including as Minister of Defense, Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, and Minister for Foreign Affairs, has had many emergency appointments due to the resignation of predecessors. His appointment as Chief Cabinet Secretary came after his predecessor, Hirokazu Matsuno (62), was dismissed due to the factional slush fund issue. ‘Hayashi Yoshimasa in times of trouble’ has emerged as a dark horse mastermind.”

The most suspicious figure is said to be former Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi (69).

“Motegi, who served as Secretary-General under the Kishida administration, stopped supporting the Prime Minister and, around 2023, began openly displaying his ambition for the Prime Minister’s position. Even during the previous administration, there were suspicions that he leaked important matters to his old employer, the Yomiuri Shimbun, such as the timing of Matsuno’s dismissal. The Prime Minister’s office is reportedly keeping a close eye on him as a person of concern.

One year older than Ishiba, Motegi isn’t at an age where he can afford to wait too long for a chance to become Prime Minister. On March 10, he had a meal with Kishida and Taro Aso, the LDP’s Senior Advisor (84), at a Japanese restaurant in Yotsuya, and there are growing views that he has begun moving toward taking over ‘Post-Ishiba.'”

This summer, major elections are looming, with the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election in June and the House of Councillors election in July. Criticism of the “informer” pulling strings from behind the scenes is rising. A veteran lawmaker who consulted with Prime Minister Ishiba reads the political situation this way:

“From April 2, the U.S. will activate its reciprocal tariffs. If a significant number of exclusions or reductions can be obtained, Ishiba’s administration will regain some momentum. On the other hand, if no exclusions are granted, Ishiba’s government will be hanging by a thread.”

How will the masterminds act at that moment?