Who Will Take Over the Variety Scene After Downtown? Ranking U-45 Comedians by Their Hidden Viewership Potential

Another shock has hit the entertainment world.

On March 10th, it was announced that Masatoshi Hamada (61) from Downtown would take a temporary break due to health issues. The duo, who have long reigned at the top of the television world, will now both disappear from the public stage.

Hamada’s regular programs total nine. TV stations are scrambling to respond, considering replacing him with a substitute or even ending the shows.

What’s concerning is, “Who will fill their shoes?” The truth is, TV stations have a top-secret data indicator used when casting, called “Potential Viewership Rating.”

“Potential Viewership Rating is calculated from past viewership data and surveys conducted with viewers. It predicts the viewership a talent could generate by appearing on variety shows or dramas. This data is available to executives at major private broadcasters and large advertising agencies and is used to determine the talent’s fee” (executive at a major advertising agency).

This time, FRIDAY compiled a list of 30 comedians under 45 years old who had experienced being finalists in M-1 Grand Prix (TV Asahi) and King of Cont (TBS), obtaining the latest “Potential Viewership Rating” data from major TV stations. The data, calculated based on the core demographic (13–49 years old), was used to create a ranking. Let’s look at the numbers of these talented individuals, who are expected to shine in the variety scene after Downtown’s absence.

Who is the leading figure in the post-Downtown era?

In this ranking, the only one to surpass 8% and take the top spot is Daigo (44) from Chidori.

“As seen by his selection as the successor MC for Sake no Tsunami ni Naru Hanashi (Fuji TV), previously hosted by Hitoshi Matsumoto (61), Daigo is the strongest candidate for post-‘Downtown’. While he may speak little in meetings, he perfectly understands the production team’s needs and calmly progresses the show, preventing trouble or delays during filming. Staff working with Daigo say, ‘Even if the co-stars or VTRs fall flat, Daigo always turns it into laughter. He gives a sense of security that matches or even exceeds Matsumoto-san’” (variety program producer at a major TV station).

His partner, Nobu (45), also ranked high at 7%, securing 5th place.

“His sense of timing and how he handles the flow of the program as an MC are exceptional. When comedians from other agencies are guests, he prioritizes engaging with them, showing broad perspective. Variety shows with Yoshimoto comedians often fall into in-jokes, but when Nobu is the MC, that doesn’t happen. His excellent sense of balance is likely what makes him so well-received by viewers” (variety program director at a major TV station).

Taking second place, surpassing the powerful Nobu, is Tetsuya Morita (43) from Saraba Seishun no Hikari.

“On YouTube, with over 1.4 million subscribers, he relentlessly teases his partner, Tō Bukuro (39), while in shows with senior MCs like Hiroiki Ariyoshi (50), he fully embraces the role of being teased. He has a keen understanding of his own character and the dynamics with his co-stars. In recent years, as clean comedians have become more popular due to compliance issues, there’s been a resurgence in the popularity of comedians who push boundaries with bold teasing or crude humor. Morita is a prime example of this. Despite his hectic schedule with little time off, he answers the pre-show questionnaires more carefully than anyone else. While Tō Bukuro rarely appears solo, thanks to Morita, his exposure has increased, and he is often humorously teased during recordings, which has boosted his potential viewership rating” (executive at a production company).

The Influence of YouTube

Both Kamaitachi and Chocolate Planet, like Saraba Seishun no Hikari, have gained fans on YouTube and reflected this in their viewership ratings, placing both within the top 5.

“In recent years, the number of YouTube channel subscribers and video view counts have become increasingly important when casting. With the growing concern over young people turning away from television, the idea is that having comedians who have gained a young following on YouTube will help boost viewership. Kamaitachi has 2.4 million subscribers, and Chocolate Planet also has 2.4 million. A portion of these fans will also tune in to the TV programs they appear on. That’s why both groups have high potential viewership ratings” (key station programming executive).

Chasing down the top tier of popular and skilled comedians with numerous regular shows are newer talents like Reiwa Roman and Shimofuri Myojo. Another key station variety show director shares:

“In February of this year, Kuruma Takahira (30), who took a hiatus, was known for his strictness about comedy and being tough on staff. However, he had numbers comparable to Chidori and Kamaitachi, so many TV producers hoped for his return. Soshina (32) is a similar type. When I worked with him on a recording, he didn’t like the set design as it didn’t match the concept of the show and became upset, saying ‘I won’t do it,’ so I had to convince him. His partner, Seiya (32), also has a surprisingly strong personality and tends to speak out, like saying, ‘That script wasn’t funny.’ While their bluntness is often avoided by staff, it resonates well with younger viewers. This month, Soshina’s first appearance as a judge in the 14th YTV Manzai Newcomer Award (Yomiuri TV) saw a sevenfold increase in viewers on the TVer re-broadcast compared to last year, which caused a stir. Even if they have difficult personalities, talents with strong numbers can’t be ignored by networks.”

Strength cultivated in the theater

While the number of comedians leveraging YouTube as a stepping stone is on the rise, there are still traditional comedians who have honed their craft through performing on theater stages and are maintaining high ratings.

“With fewer variety programs on terrestrial TV, opportunities for theater-trained comedians to shine have diminished. However, if they have the ability to handle both location shoots and studio talks, they can still achieve around 5% in ratings. Among them, ‘Mitorizu,’ who have regular spots on shows like ‘Lavit!’ (TBS) and ‘Mitorizu Jan’ (TV Asahi), are particularly popular. The balance between the laid-back Riri (40) and the lively Shintaro Moriyama (39) has earned them broad support from viewers aged 10 to 50” (Key station programming executive).

A senior executive from a production company analyzes, “While ‘New York’ has a sharp tongue and sarcasm as their trademark, which doesn’t appeal to everyone, they have a dedicated fan base.”

“Hiromasa Yashiki (39) and Shimasa Kazuya (38) are both humble on set and are well-liked by staff. Their MC role in ‘Ai no Hyena’ on ABEMA has surpassed 600 million views in total, and it’s been noticed that they can also generate numbers with internet streaming shows.”

A bit later than these two, Sayaka has started to break out and has shown an aggressive attitude toward ratings.

“It may come as a surprise that ‘Sayaka’ has ranked, but in the Kansai region, they’ve been regulars on 10 shows, including ‘Seyan’ (MBS) and ‘Batsu Uke Teiner R’ (Sun TV), and have advanced to the ‘M-1’ finals three times. Last April, they moved to Tokyo, and they are highly anticipated by the industry.”

“Shinyama (33) often says, ‘I want to be the man of ratings in the Reiwa era’ during appearances and meetings. Some fellow comedians and staff have viewed his determination to promote his humor to popular show producers and directors with skepticism, but ultimately, his exposure on high-rating shows has increased. Given this, it’s no wonder he made it onto the list” (Key station variety program director).

A new comedic leader to succeed ”Downtown’”may very well emerge from this list of 30.

From the April 4/11, 2025 issue of “FRIDAY”