Shohei Ohtani 2025: Bold Predictions for Batting, HRs, and Stolen Bases!
Former Major Leaguer Ryota Igarashi, Major League Baseball expert Nachi Tomonari and Ryoichi Fukushima discuss in-depth!
Stolen bases may decrease, but over a .300 average and 60 home runs!?
The two-way samurai is finally back.
Last year, Shohei Ohtani (30) of the Dodgers achieved an unprecedented 54-59 and was crowned world champion. This year, after about two years, he will return to the mound in Major League Baseball. What kind of performance can we expect from the superstar who has returned? Former Major Leaguer Ryota Igarashi, Major League reporter for 50 years Ryoichi Fukushima, and sports writer and Major League critic Nachi Tomonari engage in a heated discussion.
Fukushima: Last year, after moving from the Angels to the Dodgers, his environment changed drastically, yet he had an otherworldly performance, winning the home run title for the second year in a row, his first RBI title, and even coming close to the Triple Crown. It was his best season, wasn’t it?
Igarashi: It was truly out of this world. He put up those numbers while still rehabbing his right elbow (laughs).
Tomonari: Exactly. He focused only on hitting last season, but no one could have predicted he’d achieve “50-50.” In a good way, Ohtani surprised us.
Igarashi: Regarding stolen bases, I expected him to increase his attempts since he was practicing starting from camp. However, I never thought he’d extend his record to 59 stolen bases, surpassing Ichiro’s (56 stolen bases).
Fukushima: However, this season, there’s also the expectation of his return as a pitcher. In that case, stolen bases will likely decrease, right?
Igarashi: Since there’s a risk of injury, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts (52) likely doesn’t want to push him too hard. I think Ohtani understands that as well. Given the dislocated left shoulder incident in the World Series, he’ll likely proceed with caution. I predict he’ll settle around 20 stolen bases.
Tomonari: I also predict about 16 stolen bases. The recovery from his dislocation seems good, but the left shoulder is still important for a right-handed pitcher.
Igarashi: Fortunately, it wasn’t his throwing arm, but in baseball, balance is important. I hope he fully recovers. If there’s still discomfort, he might compensate by overusing other parts of his body, which could lead to injuries elsewhere.
Fukushima: We want him to fully heal both his right elbow and left shoulder, and we hope he performs as well or even better than last season. This season, we’re expecting the return of the “two-way” player. What kind of numbers do you think he’ll post as a batter?
Tomonari: I believe his performance will drop slightly due to his return as a pitcher. Last year, he had an environment where he could focus only on hitting. However, with his return as a pitcher in 2023, balancing both hitting and pitching might be challenging. I predict his batting average will drop to .280, with about 40 home runs. Even so, those are still incredible numbers.
Igarashi: Indeed, balancing both pitching and hitting will be physically and mentally exhausting. However, knowing Ohtani, I believe he’ll still hit over .300 and 50 home runs!
Fukushima: I agree with Igarashi’s prediction, but I’m expecting even more—over 60 home runs. He has the physicality and power to match Yankees’ Aaron Judge (32), and since 2022, his home run numbers have increased by 10 each year: 34, 44, and 54. If this pace continues, reaching 60 home runs is definitely possible.
Tomonari: Joining the Dodgers, with one of the strongest lineups in Major League Baseball, has reduced the number of intentional walks and walks he faced compared to his time with the Angels. That has contributed to the increase in his home runs.
Igarashi: Over 60 home runs is quite a bold prediction. But, considering Ohtani, it’s definitely within the realm of possibility. He’s always exceeded our expectations (laughs).
A two-year consecutive RBI title is also expected
Fukushima: Last season, he started as the second batter, but due to Mookie Betts’ (32) injury in mid-June, he moved to the leadoff spot. Even after Betts returned in August, Ohtani continued to lead off. What do you think his batting order will be this season?
Tomonari: With his return as a pitcher, I feel that batting leadoff might be too much for him. Considering his physical condition, I think he will return to the second spot.
Igarashi: I’m not sure. Last year, Ohtani batting leadoff seemed to bring momentum to the team. While there is certainly concern about his physical condition, he’s a player who continues to evolve, so I believe he’ll handle it without any problem.
Fukushima: I believe that the lineup of Ohtani, Betts, and Freddie Freeman (35) will remain the same, even if Ohtani returns as a pitcher. By placing Betts, a right-handed hitter, between two left-handed hitters like Ohtani and Freeman, it makes it harder for opposing teams to manage their pitching. Also, the desire to maintain the momentum from last year will play a role, so I predict Ohtani will continue to be used as the leadoff hitter.
Tomonari: So, a stable leadoff position. I think the burden on Ohtani will be significant, but for the team, that’s the best option. Ohtani prioritizes the team’s victory over his personal condition, so it’s highly likely.
Igarashi: Additionally, the Dodgers strengthened their lower batting order this offseason by acquiring Michael Conforto (31) from the San Francisco Giants, so it’s likely that Ohtani will have more opportunities to bat with runners in scoring position. Considering that, his RBIs could increase from last year’s 130, and I expect him to compete for the RBI title for the second consecutive year.
Fukushima: In last season’s batting title race, he finished second with a .310 average, just four points behind Luis Arraez (27, Padres), who won the title with a .314 average, missing out on the Triple Crown. However, if he shows the same incredible focus he displayed at the end of last season, winning the batting title this year is possible. It’s entirely possible for him to surpass last year’s batting average and claim the Triple Crown.
Igarashi: We don’t know how his return to pitching will affect his hitting until the season begins, but I’m hopeful.
The discussion on Shohei Ohtani for 2025 continues in part two!
Ryota Igarashi
Born in 1979 in Hokkaido. After thriving with the Yakult Swallows from 1998 to 2009, he moved to the United States and pitched for the Mets, Blue Jays, and Yankees until 2012. He is currently working as a baseball commentator.
Nachi Tomonari
Born in 1956 in Aomori Prefecture. Since 2004, he has contributed to the Major League Complete Player Guide and has written for various media outlets as a Major League Baseball critic and sports writer.
Ryoichi Fukushima
Born in 1956 in Chiba Prefecture. Since his first visit to the U.S. in 1973, he has continued to watch Major League Baseball games in person every year. He is currently a sports writer and commentator for MLB broadcasts.
From “FRIDAY” February 21–28, 2025 combined issue.
PHOTO： AFLO
