[Special Roundtable Discussion – Part 2] Shohei Ohtani’s 2025: A Pitcher’s Return and Season Projections

Last year, Shohei Ohtani (30) of the Dodgers achieved the unprecedented feat of “54-59” and crowned himself World Champion. This year, he returns to the major league mound for the first time in about two years. What kind of performance can the returning superstar deliver? Former major leaguer Ryota Igarashi, veteran journalist with 50 years of major league coverage, Ryoichi Fukushima, and baseball analyst and sports writer Nachi Tomonari engage in a heated discussion.

If you would like to read the first part, you can do so here:

[Special Roundtable, Part 1] “Shohei Ohtani in 2025” The return of the two-way star! A big prediction on his batting average, home runs, and stolen bases

120 innings, 10 wins are the target

Tomonari: According to Manager Roberts, Shohei Ohtani’s return to pitching will be in May. It’s unfortunate that he won’t be ready for Opening Day, but considering the need for rehabilitation starts in the minors and the fact that they’ll need him to pitch through the postseason, it’s a reasonable decision.

Fukushima: The Dodgers have strengthened their starting rotation in the off-season with pitchers like Roki Sasaki (23) and Blake Snell (32), who won the Cy Young Award in 2018 and 2023. When you add Yushin Yamamoto (26) and Ohtani to the mix, they have more than 10 starting pitcher candidates. There’s plenty of depth in the starting rotation, so Manager Roberts will likely want to be cautious and take his time with Ohtani’s recovery.

Igarashi: I think Ohtani wants to return quickly, and fans definitely want to see him pitch, but the Dodgers’ main goal is to repeat as World Series champions. They want him to be at his best for the postseason.

Fukushima: Even though he’s expected to start pitching in May, the World Series runs until October. That’s almost the length of an entire season. So, depending on his condition, there’s still a possibility that his return could be delayed. They want him to come back in perfect form.

Tomonari: If we assume he returns in May, he’d likely make around 20 starts. Based on that, a realistic projection would be 128 innings, 158 strikeouts, a 3.20 ERA, and 8 wins with 4 losses.

Igarashi: That would be ideal. But with Ohtani, I think he could reach 10 wins even with fewer starts. The key is to avoid pushing himself too hard, but once he’s on the mound in the majors, he’ll give it his all. So, I expect him to aim for double-digit wins.

Fukushima: Ohtani achieved 15 wins in 2022 and 10 wins in 2023 during his time with the Angels. Achieving double-digit wins and home runs is a testament to his two-way abilities. I believe he will definitely reach 10 wins again, and his ERA will likely be around 3.00, similar to his time with the Angels.

Tomonari: If he achieves those kinds of numbers in his first year back, it would surpass his contributions from last year. Igarashi-san, as someone who’s played in the majors, what do you think are the key factors for Ohtani’s successful return as a pitcher?