[Special Roundtable Discussion – Part 2] Shohei Ohtani’s 2025: A Pitcher’s Return and Season Projections

Last year, Shohei Ohtani (30) of the Dodgers achieved the unprecedented feat of “54-59” and crowned himself World Champion. This year, he returns to the major league mound for the first time in about two years. What kind of performance can the returning superstar deliver? Former major leaguer Ryota Igarashi, veteran journalist with 50 years of major league coverage, Ryoichi Fukushima, and baseball analyst and sports writer Nachi Tomonari engage in a heated discussion.

If you would like to read the first part, you can do so here:

[Special Roundtable, Part 1] “Shohei Ohtani in 2025” The return of the two-way star! A big prediction on his batting average, home runs, and stolen bases

120 innings, 10 wins are the target

Tomonari: According to Manager Roberts, Shohei Ohtani’s return to pitching will be in May. It’s unfortunate that he won’t be ready for Opening Day, but considering the need for rehabilitation starts in the minors and the fact that they’ll need him to pitch through the postseason, it’s a reasonable decision.

Fukushima: The Dodgers have strengthened their starting rotation in the off-season with pitchers like Roki Sasaki (23) and Blake Snell (32), who won the Cy Young Award in 2018 and 2023. When you add Yushin Yamamoto (26) and Ohtani to the mix, they have more than 10 starting pitcher candidates. There’s plenty of depth in the starting rotation, so Manager Roberts will likely want to be cautious and take his time with Ohtani’s recovery.

Igarashi: I think Ohtani wants to return quickly, and fans definitely want to see him pitch, but the Dodgers’ main goal is to repeat as World Series champions. They want him to be at his best for the postseason.

Fukushima: Even though he’s expected to start pitching in May, the World Series runs until October. That’s almost the length of an entire season. So, depending on his condition, there’s still a possibility that his return could be delayed. They want him to come back in perfect form.

Tomonari: If we assume he returns in May, he’d likely make around 20 starts. Based on that, a realistic projection would be 128 innings, 158 strikeouts, a 3.20 ERA, and 8 wins with 4 losses.

Igarashi: That would be ideal. But with Ohtani, I think he could reach 10 wins even with fewer starts. The key is to avoid pushing himself too hard, but once he’s on the mound in the majors, he’ll give it his all. So, I expect him to aim for double-digit wins.

Fukushima: Ohtani achieved 15 wins in 2022 and 10 wins in 2023 during his time with the Angels. Achieving double-digit wins and home runs is a testament to his two-way abilities. I believe he will definitely reach 10 wins again, and his ERA will likely be around 3.00, similar to his time with the Angels.

Tomonari: If he achieves those kinds of numbers in his first year back, it would surpass his contributions from last year. Igarashi-san, as someone who’s played in the majors, what do you think are the key factors for Ohtani’s successful return as a pitcher?

To win the World Series for the second year in a row

Towards a World Series two-peat

Igarashi: It’s really about the fastball speed. Ohtani is the type of pitcher who dominates with his power, so he’ll need to get back to at least an average of 95 mph (around 153 km/h) to be effective.

Fukushima: We don’t want him to change his pitching style too much. Before his injury, Ohtani threw a rising slider, known as a sweeper. Some have suggested that overusing that pitch might have caused his injury, but will he experiment with pitches that put less strain on him?

Igarashi: It’s unlikely that he’ll completely change his style right after rehab, but I do think he’ll adjust the velocity and break of his current pitches (four-seam, sweeper, splitter, cut fastball, curveball, sinker, etc.). For example, with the sweeper, reducing the velocity can significantly reduce the strain on his elbow.

Tomonari: It seems like he might also need to adjust the ratio of his pitches. But, at the same time, we all want to see him rack up strikeouts with his dominant pitching again.

Igarashi: I believe he’ll do it. I’m sure Ohtani himself is imagining pitching in the World Series, and I hope he takes his time to adjust without rushing. If he injured his elbow again, it could be very tough for him as a pitcher. There are very few cases of players who’ve made a full recovery after three surgeries.

Tomonari: He’s set a goal of winning the Cy Young Award, but it seems that’s something to look forward to in the coming years.

Igarashi: Of course, we haven’t seen his post-recovery pitching yet, but if he returns to his original form, he has the ability to target that. First, I’m looking forward to his comeback this season.

Fukushima: Honestly, I believe Ohtani is the key to the Dodgers’ back-to-back World Series victory. What do you think?

Igarashi: Based on last year’s performance, Ohtani led the team and provided energy as the leadoff hitter. This year, I imagine we’ll see him fighting hard both on the mound and in defense.

Tomonari: Hitting, running, and fielding. I’m excited to see Ohtani maximize his full potential and lead the team to a championship again this year.

Igarashi: A star like Ohtani won’t come back from an injury and return without making an impact. He’ll show an evolution that no one could have imagined!

Ryota Igarashi
Born in 1979 in Hokkaido. After thriving with the Yakult Swallows from 1998 to 2009, he moved to the U.S., where he pitched for the Mets, Blue Jays, and Yankees until 2012. He is currently working as a baseball commentator.

Nachi Tomonari
Born in 1956 in Aomori Prefecture. Since 2004, he has been involved in writing the Major League Complete Data Player Guide and contributes to various media as a Major League commentator and sports writer.

Ryoichi Fukushima
Born in 1956 in Chiba Prefecture. Since his first trip to the U.S. in 1973, he has continued to watch Major League Baseball games there every year. He is a sports writer and also works as an MLB broadcast commentator.

From the February 21-28, 2025 combined issue of “FRIDAY”